Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 180002
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
802 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge is likely to remain over the region for
the next week, resulting in warm and generally dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
00Z radar loop showing a few lingering showers across the Middle
Susq Valley. Upper trough axis has shifted east of the region
and there is no large scale forcing to sustain these
diurnally-driven showers past sunset, so expect them to rapidly
dissipate between 00Z-02Z.

Clearing skies and a calm wind will promote areas of valley
fog late tonight, some of which will be dense. Min temps will
range from the upper 50s in the coolest valleys of the
Alleghenies, to the mid 60s over parts of the Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Monday will start off with the valley fog burning off to a
partly-mostly sunny afternoon. Upper ridge axis, which has been
over the eastern Grt Lks the last couple of days, is progged to
shift over central Pa Monday, so will only carry chance POPs of
a late day shower across the extreme northwest portion of the
forecast area, with dry weather very likely for the rest of the
forecast area.

As for Monday`s highs, there is very little change in model 850
temps from today, so will not stray much from todays maxes,
ranging mostly in the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our
weather. The ridge will be reinforced with Hurricane Jose
forecast to remain far enough offshore to just bring some high
clouds to the eastern half of the area. As Jose moves away
heights will rise and this should further dry us out for the
latter part of next week. The GEFS forecasts a closed 5880 m
ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights by next
Friday and Saturday which will translate to well above normal
temps.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Now a few thunderstorms to the southeast of IPT, but these
should stay out of our TAF sites. Will adjust, if this
changes.

00Z TAFS sent.

VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate once again overnight
with fog and low clouds bringing fairly widespread MVFR/IFR for
a few hours either side of sunrise Monday.

After early restrictions, Monday will be a virtual carbon copy
of today with some afternoon showers possible in a few spots.

.Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly dry with patchy morning fog. Otherwise
primarily VFR conditions. Eastern areas may see NE winds 10-20
mph as main impacts from Jose remain off to our east.

Thu-Fri...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
LONG TERM...Ross/Gartner
AVIATION...Martin


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