Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 192143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH
SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN
PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME MID AND HI CLDS ON MONDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDS /ESP W MTNS/ EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



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