Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 281908
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE AND DRIFT OFF THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE FAIR WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER
CU AND PLEASANT READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FOG TO
CONTEND WITH. PROBABLY NOT AS COMMON AS LAST NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS
END UP SEVERAL DEG MILDER THAN THIS MORNING`S LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE PATCHY EARLY FOG QUICKLY BURNS OFF...SATURDAY WILL KEEP
THE RECENT STRING OF MAINLY FAIR DAYS IN TACT...WHILE WARMING UP
BY 4 OR 5 DEG ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHC OF SEEING
RAINFALL BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS.

AFTER THAT...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 12Z GEFS
SHOWS 850HPA TEMPS RUNNING +1SD ACROSS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE-NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS
WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR
LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD
INTO PA. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT SOME MODELS SHOW DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATE NEXT
THURS/FRI. THIS FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TO START THE DAY
SATURDAY.

ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SATURDAY
WILL SEE A FEW HIGH BASED CU AND A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE



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