Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 171956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
356 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Southwest flow aloft will keep much above normal temperatures over
the region right through midweek. Cooler and unsettled conditions
will arrive by late week with showers expected Thursday and
Friday...and lasting into the weekend.


Surface cold front lying across the Fingerlakes region this
afternoon. Clouds hung tough for a good part of the day but are
now breaking as southwesterly flow increases across the region and
boundary layer convergence has dissipated.

Extremely warm this afternoon with temperatures pushing 70F up
north and nearing 80F southeast. Expect fair and mild conditions
to persist overnight with mins well above normal again.
Temperatures will range through the 50s to the lower 60s.


Strong southwest flow will keep warmer than normal temperatures
across the region Wednesday. We expect record breaking warmth
across the region on Tuesday as temperatures warm into the lower
to mid 80s over central and southern areas. Maxes across the north
will reach the mid to upper 70s.

A weak cold front (with very shallow and just slightly cooler
air) will slide east through the region during the day Wednesday
with just a few showers possible...mainly across the northwest
half of the state.


A weakening frontal boundary moving into Central PA Tuesday night
is fcst to become quasi-stationary near the Mason-Dixon line early
Wednesday before pivoting back to the north as a warm front
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The frontal boundary should
be a focus for occasional shower activity, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms mainly Wednesday afternoon which agrees with the SPC
general Tstm convective outlook. The main sensible weather
highlight through midweek will remain the unseasonably mild to
record warm temperatures.

A transition toward a period of wet weather followed by colder
(near-to-below normal) temperatures should begin on Thursday. The
models and ensembles continue to show some differences with the
upper trough evolving from the Plains into the Eastern U.S. which
has implications on the track/timing of developing surface low and
trailing frontal boundary. The trend over the past 36-48 hours has
been for a more progressive system which keeps whatever tropical
entity/low that may form north of the Bahamas off the Mid Atlc
Coast. Thursday could turn out much warmer than fcst for some
locations in the warm sector. Used a consensus multi-model blend
for POPs in an attempt to best mitigate the spread in the guidance.

The computer model data eventually arrives at a seasonably colder
and mainly dry west/northwest flow pattern into the weekend. Max
POPs are fcst in the climatologically favored areas downwind of
Lake Erie and over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies.


A weak cold front will stay north of the New York - Pennsylvania
border today before retreating back to the north as a warm front
tonight and Tuesday. Generally VFR conditions will prevail tonight
and Tuesday, though patchy fog will develop again - mainly in the
Susq Valley overnight.

A weak cold front will push through on Wednesday, bringing showers
and cig restrictions to the NW mtns starting Tue night and likely
restrictions into central mtns on Wed.


Tue...Patchy AM fog.

Tue night...Reductions NW half with chance of showers.

Wed...Reductions NW half and potentially into central mtns.

Thu...Chance of showers, esp west.

Fri...Chance of showers.

Sat...Chance of showers.


Daily record maximum temperatures are in jeopardy for 10/18. Here
are the current records:

Harrisburg: 82 in 1908
Williamsport: 82 in 1964
Altoona: 81 in 1998
Bradford: 75 in 1963
State College:  83 in 1938*

*10/18 high will be officially recorded on 10/19 (7am-7am COOP)
 report so used 10/19 for record purposes.




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