Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 262300
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC CFRONT SAGGING SE FROM NWRN PENN EARLY THIS
EVENING...COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...POCKETS OF
RELATIVELY HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG...AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 65 KT UPPER JETLET
TO FORM NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME SLOW-MOVING...HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING TSRA.

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION...AND RAINFALL RATES...WILL
STAY FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS /WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS
CELLS OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN AFTER 02Z...BUT CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING
PULSE TSRA MAY STILL REMAIN THROUGH 04Z-05Z ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AND WRN POCONOS.

SOME SHOWERS MAY LAST ALL NIGHT IN THE SERN COS. CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE - BUT MAINLY OVER THE NW. FOG ALSO POSSIBLE FOR LATER
TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FALLS AND THE SKY CLEARS OUT OR LOW
CLOUDS AT LEAST GO AWAY /DESPITE LINGERING MID CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH/CENTRAL COS/.

MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH...TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT NOT IN A HURRY AND FOCUS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ.
ALL DAY. FORCING IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MAKE IT
ALMOST LIKELY TO SHOWER/STORM. THERE...BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUTY AND
WITHIN COLLABORATION TO CALL IT SCT COVERAGE. PWATS STILL RUN IN
THE 1.5-INCH RANGE MONDAY. SO THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINERS IN THE SE. MAXES SHOULD BE RATHER HOMOGENEOUS
IN THE L-M80S...WITH THE NW IN MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER 8H
TEMPS/MIXING POTENTIAL OVER THE SE.

AIR BEGINS TO DRY OUT IN THE SE MON NIGHT. WILL SLIDE POPS TO NILS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD STILL IN STORE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIND SHIFT/FRONT NOW EVIDENT WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LINE
AND WIDESPREAD SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.

CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE SCT-NMRS COVERAGE
FOR MOST OF THE TIME...SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST THRU TIME. VCSH
SHOULD BE GOOD FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
TIMES OF BEST COVERAGE MIGHT WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP FOR REDUCTIONS
DUE TO TSRA. THEREFORE...THE TAFS WILL LOOK MORE OMINOUS THAN
CONDITIONS REALLY WILL BE.

THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE QUICKLY AND SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE E/SERN TERMINALS. LOCATIONS THAT ATTEMPT
TO CLEAR OUT COULD GET DENSE FOG - BUT GENERALLY ONY IF IT RAINED
AT THAT TERMINAL. WILL JUST MENTION1-2SM BR FOR SOME SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT PLACES THAT REMAIN DRY MAY NOT FOG IN AT ALL. NOT
MUCH CLEARING IS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE NW. AT LEAST MID CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE THE CENTRAL MTNS.

LESS COVERAGE IN SHRA EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS AROUND
THE SERN TERMINALS WHERE THE FRONT LINGERS STILL. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MON
NIGHT. VALLEY FOG POSS INN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO


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