Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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776
FXUS61 KCTP 181922
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN A COOL...DRY AIRMASS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MUGGINESS WILL RETURN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIR SITTING OVER THE AREA. CAPE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED UNTIL THE LAST 30 TO 60 MINUTES. THE CAP IS BROKEN AND TC
HAS BEEN PASSED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GROWN OVER ALMOST
ALL OF THE CWA WITH LITTLE TO NO PATTERN OR ORGANIZATION. THERE
HAS BEEN ONE BACK-BUILDING STORM IN SRN LANC CO. BUT THE HIGH
MOISTURE WILL TIELD SOME VERY HIGH RAIN RATES. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON AREAS WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE STORMS/BACKBUILD. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LATEST NAM RUN PUSHES
MOST OF THE RAIN OFF TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER SHORTLY AFTER
1 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST NUDGE OF DRY AIR COMES IN UNDER A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER KCVG. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END MOST OF THE SHOWERS. BUT
THE REAL COLD/DRY AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN THE WEST UNTIL CLOSE TO
SUNRISE TUES. THUS...A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE MENTIONED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT - ESP IN THE EAST. DEWPOINTS DROP
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...BUT THE SE COULD STAY
MUGGY AND THE SKY SHOULD BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. SO SUNSHINE WILL
HEAT UP THE ERN VALLEYS. A STORM OR TWO WILL PROBABLY POP UP IN
THE HEATING OF THE DAY THERE...BUT ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO ALLOW ANYTHING TO GROW ENOUGH IN THE WEST TO
PRECIPITATE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER MOST/ALL
OF THE AREA. PERHAPS ONLY THE PLACES WHICH CAN KEEP WIND OVER
5-6KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT - MAINLY HIGHER ELEVS IN THE WEST - CAN
STAY AWAY FROM BAD VISBYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEPARTING LATE TUE/EARLY TUE
EVE...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CLEARING THE REGION.

IN IT/S WAKE...RESPECTABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WITH A PUSH OF NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR
MIDWEEK. A WEAK WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE
CAROLINA/S ON THU...WHILE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN
CANADA. CENTRAL PA REMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WHICH WILL
KEEP US DRY. EVEN WITH NW FLOW...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT
WARMER EACH DAY. BUT DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE FAIRLY LARGE
THANKS TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHICH WILL BRING CHILLY MORNINGS.
THE COLDEST CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE
REMAINS A RISK FOR PATCHY FROST...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ZONES WHERE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POSS FOR MID 30S AOA BFD /JUST IN
TIME FOR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON/.

THE WEAK LOW OVER CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC REGION SLIDES OFFSHORE
FRI...WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FOR SAT/SUN.
ONCE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES BY SAT NIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH RISING TEMPS /AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSS/. EVEN WARMER AND MUGGIER ON MEMORIAL DAY...WITH SCATTERED TO
EVEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CIGS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO MIX UP/AWAY...WITH MOST EVERY
STATION VFR BEFORE 18Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING LATE
THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION - MAINLY
EAST OF BFD AND JST - THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD CREATE VIS
REDUCTION DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN A FEW
SPOTS. ANY PRECIPITATION COULD WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR
FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT/IN THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT...BUT
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE PRACTICALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MOST ALL SITE
THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND 06Z AND
SHOULD PUSH MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN AND LITTLE DRYING BEFORE SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG/STRATUS TO FORM OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA AS WELL. ONLY
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS - JST - WITH DECENT WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT
MAY BE ABLE TO ESCAPE IFR VIZ. BUT THEY COULD END UP WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS. DRYING AIR SLIDES FROM NW-SE THRU THE AREA STARTING
AROUND 10-12Z IN THE MORNING. BUT THE SE MAY STILL HAVE SCT
SHRA/TSRA TUES AFTN.

WED-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO



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