Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281916 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 316 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX. WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS. THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR

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