-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 021119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
619 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BOUT OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY/MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
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WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OVER THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY JUST SOME BRIEF SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN MOST CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE NW MTNS WHERE SCTD-NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A
COATING TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2
INCHES ON THE WEST FACING SLOPES/RIDGETOPS TO THE WEST OF RT 219.
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN.

AFTER TEMPS DROP ANOTHER FEW-SVRL DEG F BY SUNRISE TODAY IN MOST
LOCATIONS...MODERATELY STRONG SFC-850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL GREATLY FLATTEN THE NORMAL EARLY MARCH
DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TODAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN TODAY AS THE
CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM/COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER
THAN THE USUAL POST FRONTAL SCATTERED SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING
THE WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING OVERALL THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FOR THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTN...BUT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH ALL DAY OVER THE WESTERN MTNS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY USING A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WILL VARY FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARMER AIR ALOFT MORE READILY INVADES THE REGION FROM
THE SW /ALONG WITH NOTABLY HIGHER PWAT VALUES/.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF 00-06Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE LATEST ENS
GUIDANCE LEADS TO A SOLUTION FOR AN INITIAL FEW TO SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

PAINTED A GENERAL COATING-1 INCH OF SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SUSQ VALLEY...WITH 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS PRIOR TO THE
TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FZRA. ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.15-0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF PA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED...TOOK SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE NW. TIGHT THICKNESS PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW PA
TO SE PA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY NW OF OUR AREA. LEFT POPS UP...THINK
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

IN FACT...THE 00Z EC AND FRESH IN 06Z NAM BOTH HIGHLIGHT A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND EXTENSIVE RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE...
STREAMING NE ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED-OUT FRONT /JUST SOUTH OF
THE MASON/DIXON LINE...AND OHIO RIVER/. THIS WILL GREATLY
COMPLICATE THE WEATHER FOR THE LATE WED INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT-MDT SNOWFALL ACROSS SE THIRD TO HALF
OF PENN.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS BY TO OUR
NE...A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING
SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST
AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF FEBRUARY BEHIND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WNW FLOW ESTABLISHING OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE
OF EXITING STORM SYSTEM. OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL HANG ON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE
CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR TO
IFR VSBYS WILL IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ THROUGH MID MORNING UNTIL WNW
WINDS INCREASE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. CENTRAL MTNS
MAINLY SEEING CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...WHICH WILL ALSO LIFT LATER
THIS MORNING TO VFR. N/W HIGHER TERRAIN GETTING COMBO REDUCTIONS
OF BOTH CIGS/VSBYS WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WE/LL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS AND LLWS
DEVELOPING LATE AFT AND LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR