-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 091818
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. TWO
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACKING RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LATE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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09/18Z...CURRENT VISIBLE STLT LOOP SHOWS SC DISSIPATING OVER THE
WRN MTNS. THEREFORE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER GRIDS
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREV FCST. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF EARLY MARCH CLIMO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY BTWN
30-40F OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVGS.

THE LLVL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE WSW AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN MTNS...AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND VERY DIFFUSE/WEAK SFC CLIPPER TYPE REFLECTION CROSSES
ONTARIO/LWR GRT LKS AND REACHES THE NRN MID-ATL/UPSTATE NY BY 12Z
MON. THE INCREASING WSW FLOW ON THE SOUTH OF SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS NEARLY STEADY ACRS THE WEST...WITH
PERHAPS A NON-DIURNAL RISE TOWARD MORNING. THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
ACRS THE MID-LWR SUSQ VLY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST SPOTS...BUT THIS IS
RELATIVELY SPEAKING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 25-30F RANGE. A FAIRLY
BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADV IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN INCR MID-HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW
EVIDENT OVER WI/MI APPROACHING THE WRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM LK HURON
ACRS SRN ONTARIO AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY MONDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SCT LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY TOMORROW/PRIOR TO 18Z MAINLY NORTH OF I80. THE AFTN SHOULD
FEATURE IMPROVING CONDS WITH TEMPS WARMING NICELY INTO THE LOW-
MID 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTH. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
TRENDS...COULD SEE WARMER MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER SRN PA GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DRY/QUIET WX CONTINUES INTO MON NGT WITH RELATIVELY
MILD LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 30F IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40F IN THE
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILARLY FAIR AND MILD...A SORT OF CALM BEFORE OUR
NEXT WINTER STORM THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO ACCORD ON THE MID WEEK SCENARIO.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A TROUGH DEEPENING TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE
TENN VALLEY THROUGH VA/SRN PA...THEN TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS AS A DEVELOPING GALE.

THE SET UP HAS US STARTING OFF RATHER MILD MAKING THE INITIAL
PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TO BE RAIN. BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW BEGIN TO DEEPEN...COLDER AIR IS DRAGGED DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING ABOUT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW/SLEET...WINTRY MIX. AT THIS
RANGE IT`S AN IMPOSSIBLE CALL TO DRAW LINES...BUT IT APPEARS
CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW AS THE COLD AIR SWEEPS IN WEDNESDAY INTO WED
EVENING.

AS WE HAVE SEEN COUNTLESS TIMES THIS WINTER...ANOTHER CHUNK OF
COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM. IT WILL BE WINDY AND DESPITE BEING A WEEK AWAY FROM
SPRING...IT WILL FEEL ANYTHING BUT SPRING-LIKE.

THE WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL FAVORS A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH ISN`T
FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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09/18Z..PREVAILING VFR CONDS WITH INCR HIGH/MID CLOUDS BY THIS
EVE. WNW SFC WNDS 10-15KTS BCMG WSW 5-10KTS TNGT. LLWS IS MARGINAL
TNGT ACRS WRN AIRFIELDS IN ZOB SECTOR SO DECIDED NOT TO MENTION IN
TAFS.

A WEAK LOW/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SEWD ACRS SERN
CANADA/NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT LGT RA/SN SHOWERS OVER THE NRN AIRSPACE WITH OCNL MVFR
CIGS LKLY. ADDED VCSH AT BFD WITH CIG 025. LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 050
ARE LKLY AS FAR SOUTH AS MDT EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS
FOR MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS OVER NRN PA.

OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR CIGS NORTH/VFR SOUTH.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS POSS WRN/CNTRL SXNS.
WED...MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN MIXED PCPN.
THU...STRONG/GUSTY NNW WINDS EARLY.
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&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL