Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300334 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1134 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry weather into Wednesday. A cold front will move across the commonwealth late Wednesday and early Thursday, followed by a refreshingly cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High pressure and associated low PWAT air mass building into Pa will provide the region with a clear and tranquil night with a return to near seasonal temps. A calm wind, combined with warm river/stream water, should promote patchy late night fog in the deep valleys north of I-80. Latest HREF output supports this idea of valley fog confined mainly to northern Pa between 06Z-13Z. Lows will drop back into the 50s (40s in the normal cold spots) over central and northern areas, with lower 60s over the far south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Large scale subsidence and relatively low PWATs assoc with high pressure should result in abundant sunshine and light wind Tuesday. An examination of GEFS 925/850 mean temps suggests the air mass over Pa will remain warmer than average, with max temps likely ranging from arnd 80F over the northern mtns, to the mid/upper 80s over the Lower Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result, above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the period. Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front pushing SE across the area Wednesday afternoon/early Wed night, with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next week and into Saturday. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday into the weekend over the northern and western higher terrain, with low to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough amplifies from central Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Minor adjustments made to the TAFS this evening. Nice afternoon outside with no clouds and VFR conditions earlier has prevailed into the evening hours. High pressure will be over the region overnight, resulting in clear skies and light winds. Did not change much from the earlier TAF package. Did put some fog in LNS TAF. Expect any fog to burn off by 14Z on Tuesday. Outlook... Wed...Sct PM TS impacts possible. Thu-Sat...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Martin

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