Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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948 FXUS61 KCTP 291423 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1023 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A widespread moderate to locally heavy rain event will continue through tonight. Minor flooding impacts are likely across the southern half of central PA. Unsettled weather with occasional lighter rain showers will persist into the weekend with a gradual drying trend by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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2.5 to 3.5 inch amounts trickling in across southern tier from overnight rainfall...right on track with forecasts for this event. Dry slot with high clouds peeling off to the east spells transition to low topped open cellular activity propogating from southeast to northwest today...a more showery regime with times of little or no rainfall and other times with brief moderate to heavy rates accumulating a few tenths of an inch at time. Strong upslope flow still moderate PW transport along with some elevated instability will maintain a favorable environment for heavy rain/efficient rainfall processes through this afternoon, while increasingly diffluent flow aloft supports some training bands in addition to the trend to low topped open cellular character. As the upper low settles a little further south, backing flow should shift the heavy rain focus back toward the upslope regions of the Laurel Highlands this afternoon into tonight. Still calling for widespread 2-4" over the flood watch area with locally 4-6" most likely across the east-facing slopes and highest terrain. Very dry antecedent conditions resulting in 3-6hr FFG values of 4+ inches along with below normal stream flows should help to mitigate flooding to some extent, however if the higher end amounts are realized flooding impacts/runoff issues could become more serious.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper low continues to double back to MI on Friday before slowly tracking eastward into the Lower Great Lakes over the weekend. Strong E-SE LLJ and above normal PW along with associated forcing on east/southeast side of upper low favors scattered to numerous lighter rain showers through the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The trend for early next week is toward dry weather as the stubborn upper low is finally is kicked to the northeast by upstream amplifying trough over the Nation`s mid section. High pressure should regain control of the large scale pattern. FWIW the 29/00z GFS is much faster vs. the ECMWF with the projected path of TC Matthew, with the system nearing the NC coast by Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Increasingly moist easterly flow will will produce low cigs and rain across central Pa today. Model soundings and latest SREF output support predominantly IFR cigs through this evening at the higher terrain airfields, including KBFD, KUNV, KAOO and KJST. At the lower elevation airfields, predominantly MVFR cigs are expected today at KIPT, KMDT and KLNS. However, periodic IFR is likely this morning associated with bouts of heavier rain. Outlook... Fri-Sat...Low cigs/showers likely, mainly w mtns. Sun...AM low cigs possible. Mon...Showers/cig reductions possible at KBFD.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for PAZ024>028-033>036-056- 063>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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