-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 200519
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
119 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and fair weather will build across the area
late tonight into early next week. A cold front will sweep
southeast across the area late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Weakening line of convection exiting the forecast area late this
evening, as upper trough shifts east of the state. Mostly clear
skies and diminishing wind late tonight will promote areas of
fog, especially in the valleys of the Alleghenies, where
gradient will become the weakest. Blend of latest guidance
indicates min temps from the low 50s in the coolest valleys of
northwest Pa, to the low 60s across the Susq Valley.

Surface high pressure will provide the region with fair weather
Sunday. Model soundings indicate just a few cumulus developing
during the afternoon. 850 temps near 14C should translate to
max temps from the upper 70s across the Allegheny Plateau, to
the mid 80s across portions of the Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Fair weather expected to end the weekend with seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The medium range models are all in good agreement on bringing a
renewed surge of heat and humidity into the area to start the
new work week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be well up into the
80s with some southern locations possibly touching 90 Tuesday.

There`s decent agreement in having a vigorous cold front pass
through the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. That will
be the best chance for organized precipitation coming up next
week with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely starting
late Tuesday, lasting into the overnight before tapering off as
scattered showers Wednesday.

The remainder of the week into the weekend looks to be cool and
mainly dry as a sprawling high moves slowly eastward out of
southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Some lower clouds at AOO, but expect these to be gone soon.

Minor adjustments to the 06Z TAFS.

Earlier discussion below.

Skies now clear, with VFR conditions across all of Central
Pennsylvania in the wake of the line of thunderstorms.

Expecting fog development in most areas overnight. MVFR to
locally IFR conditions are likely.

After morning fog dissipates, VFR conditions should prevail
across the region for Sunday.

Another VFR day for Monday, except again for some morning fog.

.OUTLOOK...

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR, but restrictions in morning fog.
Tue...Thunderstorm impacts likely into the overnight.
Wed...Morning SHRA...then becoming VFR
Thu...VFR.
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&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Jung/Martin