Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 272023 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 323 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... WARM ADVECTION CREATING SOME MID/LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTN...AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OH HAVE FIZZLED...BUT A DEVELOPMENT/BLOSSOMING OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER OH THIS AFTN/EVENING AND THESE COULD REACH INTO NW BEFORE 7 PM...BUT ANY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD WET THE GROUND WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR SBN-PAH AT 19Z AND IS SLATED BY MOST GUIDANCE TO JUST ABOUT BISECT THE AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE GOOD FORCING WILL ALSO BE WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM IS ALL WARM TO START AND STAYS THAT WAY FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE TIME IT PRECIPITATES. THE TEMPS WILL ONLY COOL OFF ENOUGH OVER THE NWRN MTS TO HAVE IT TURN TO SNOW...BUT THE P-TYPE CHANGE WILL JUST START TO HAPPEN BY SUNRISE THERE. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL BE THE P-TYPE. HIGH POPS ON ORDER FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA ALL OF THE NIGHT...BUT RAIN MAY NOT GET SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE IN THE SC AND SE BY SUNRISE. QPF SEEMS TO BE A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... RAIN/SHOWERS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FINISH SPREADING SE TO COVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. FORECAST VERY CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT...WITH THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. DAYLIGHT AND THE TAPERING OF THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH TO LAY DOWN WHERE IT DOES SNOW. THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY FLAKES AT ALL. FINAL QPF IS WELL UNDER A HALF OF AN INCH. THE FRONT DRAGS IT/S FEET WITH NO REAL UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST...IT WILL BE MORE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BOTTOM AT THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SERN COS BY SUNSET. WILL GO FOR HIGH POPS AT FIRST...AND SHRINK THEM FROM NW-S FROM LATE MORNING TO THE EVENING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...BY THEN...ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OR JUST SNOW IN THE LAURELS. BUT THE LOW QPF MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AS THE WAVE MOVES UP...BUT AT THIS POINT MOST GUIDANCE PLACES THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH THAT THE WAVE WILL BRING ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP TO OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES IF ANYTHING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TRANSIENT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND REMOVE MVFR FROM BFD QUICKLY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT LIES ROUGHLY FROM SBN-PAH AT 18Z. THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER OH HAVE FIZZLED AS THEY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE DRY AIR. THE NEXT THING TO WATCH IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND BLOSSOMING RAIN SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FILLING IN OVER OHIO THIS EVENING. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 02-03Z FOR BFD...WHERE THE SHRA SHOULD REACH FIRST. THE MOISTURE WILL THICKEN AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE VISBYS AROUND 06Z IN THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL 10-14Z IN THE SE. IFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS AOO/UNV/IPT. BFD WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SNOW MIX IN OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AND THEREFORE THE ATTENDANT LOWER VISBYS AROUND SUNRISE/12Z. JST MAY LOWER TO LIFR AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE...BUT ALSO IF THE PRECIP TURNS TO SNOW THERE IN THE MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THRU HALF OF THE REGION BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL TAKE THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT FOR IT TO CLEAR THE SE. LOWER CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT VFR MAY RETURN BY 00Z/29TH - IN THE NORTH FIRST THEN CLEARING SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT PRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC - EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT THERE. OUTLOOK... MON-THU...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER AVIATION...DANGELO

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