Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301939 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 339 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push east of Pennsylvania tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Weak cold front pushing into central PA at mid afternoon...providing sufficient moisture convergence and llvl lift to overcome weak CIN and maintain a line of isolated to scattered convection. mid level lapse rates are lacking for super strong updrafts...but a few cells could build to produce gusty winds and perhaps small hail...and cooling heavy downpours. Latest hi res cams track broken line of convection out of the Central Mountains and Laurel Highlands by 21z...and the Lower Susq River Valley by 04z late this evening. Skies will clear behind the front with sfc dewpoints falling into the 50s. Light wind and areas of wet ground will lead to some patchy fog late tonight. Lows will range from near 50F northwest to the lower 60s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Slowly rising heights aloft and sfc ridging will provide a mostly sunny and warm day to PA on Tuesday. Superlend accepted for temps with highs ranging from the u70s ovr the Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s ovr the Susq Valley...although a few spots could crack 87F far southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Not a lot of change from the last 2 days. Made minor adjustments to the fcst package. Still looks dry and warm for Wed. Models show cold front moving into the area late Thursday into Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat. For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool down as one heads into next weekand. At this time range...too far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day to day. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening. A ridge of high pressure will build in for midweek. VFR conds will give way to a line of isold to sct shra/tsra and mvfr cigs tracks across central PA. This will provide the potential for brief local reductions, followed by high pressure and more settled weather building into the region through midweek /with early morning patchy fog/. OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Thu...Chance of showers/tstms west. A.M. cig reductions poss west. Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with restrictions poss. Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR

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