Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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648 FXUS61 KCTP 290040 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 840 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The stalled surface front over the Mason Dixon line will move northward tonight as a disturbance approaches from the Ohio and mid Tennessee River Valleys. This will produce a soaking rain over portions of central and south central PA tonight into Friday morning. Behind this system slightly cooler air aloft moves over the region to usher in the weekend. But the ridge may begin to build to our west again early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... Regional radar at 2230Z showing a stratiform rain falling across much of southern Pa in region of lg scale forcing ahead of approaching shortwave ovr the midwest. Radar trends and latest nr term mdls suggest rain will increase in coverage this evening as shortwave approaches. Each HRRR run has different scenarios with evolution and the GFS has the heavy rain axis relatively deep into the cooler air. Cells that develop are slow movers. Lots of uncertainty but any lumbering convective core has the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall cannot rule out 1-2 inches in 1 hour later this evening. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The rain with embedded heavy showers and storms will continue to over take the region. We kept lowest PoPs and QPF in northwest. Best chance of rain is clearly south and southeast. The GFS rainfall is quite impressive but likely too far north and west based on the CAMS. Things should wind down overnight and early AM. Not as hot Friday and the threat of heavy rain drops off fast in AM and the PoPs will lower as the day goes on. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Friday night a short-wave trough will move across Indiana and Ohio spreading showers and possible thunderstorms into western PA. Central PA will see increasing chances for rain becoming likely by afternoon. A second wave moves through in cyclonic flow Sunday keeping the POPs in the 50-70 range with highest chances over the eastern counties. Short-wave moves to the coast Sunday night with ridging building in across Central PA helping clear things out.Monday should be a drier day with sunshine and temps in the 80s.Hi pres ridge should hold through Wednesday though the GFS tries to indicate maybe an isolated afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm over the Laurel Highlands both days. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Widespread rain and showers over much of the southern two thirds of central Pennsylvania this evening, with a few more isolated convective cells across the northern tier counties. Tough forecast for aviation this evening, as conditions will likely be highly variable through the evening and into the overnight. Latest HRRR continuing the trend of keeping a decent amount of widespread, mainly light, precipitation across the region. For TAFs, have generally followed the guidance of a more steady rain in the south, with showers and rain across central and northern sections. Expect most TAFs to be varying from VFR to IFR during the evening into the overnight. More widespread restrictions overnight, even if just due to fog rather than rain. As the system moves out tomorrow morning conditions should rapidly improve from west to east. OUTLOOK... FRI...Some restrictions SHRA/BR in the morning. Some scattered convective cells possible in the afternoon. SAT-MON...Generally VFR through the period, but this will be punctuated by occasional restrictions in SHRA/TSRA. Overnight fog formation also expected, with associated restrictions. TUE...Mainly VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ036-056-057-059- 063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Grumm/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Grumm/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...Grumm/Jung

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