Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200519 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and fair weather will build across the area late tonight into early next week. A cold front will sweep southeast across the area late Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Weakening line of convection exiting the forecast area late this evening, as upper trough shifts east of the state. Mostly clear skies and diminishing wind late tonight will promote areas of fog, especially in the valleys of the Alleghenies, where gradient will become the weakest. Blend of latest guidance indicates min temps from the low 50s in the coolest valleys of northwest Pa, to the low 60s across the Susq Valley. Surface high pressure will provide the region with fair weather Sunday. Model soundings indicate just a few cumulus developing during the afternoon. 850 temps near 14C should translate to max temps from the upper 70s across the Allegheny Plateau, to the mid 80s across portions of the Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Fair weather expected to end the weekend with seasonal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The medium range models are all in good agreement on bringing a renewed surge of heat and humidity into the area to start the new work week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be well up into the 80s with some southern locations possibly touching 90 Tuesday. There`s decent agreement in having a vigorous cold front pass through the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. That will be the best chance for organized precipitation coming up next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely starting late Tuesday, lasting into the overnight before tapering off as scattered showers Wednesday. The remainder of the week into the weekend looks to be cool and mainly dry as a sprawling high moves slowly eastward out of southern Canada. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Some lower clouds at AOO, but expect these to be gone soon. Minor adjustments to the 06Z TAFS. Earlier discussion below. Skies now clear, with VFR conditions across all of Central Pennsylvania in the wake of the line of thunderstorms. Expecting fog development in most areas overnight. MVFR to locally IFR conditions are likely. After morning fog dissipates, VFR conditions should prevail across the region for Sunday. Another VFR day for Monday, except again for some morning fog. .OUTLOOK... Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR, but restrictions in morning fog. Tue...Thunderstorm impacts likely into the overnight. Wed...Morning SHRA...then becoming VFR Thu...VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Jung/Martin

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