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000
FXUS61 KCTP 250602
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
202 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Much drier air is settling in and stick around through much of
the coming week. Widely scattered showers may pop up each
afternoon across the northern part of the state, though.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Isolated showers traversing the central and north central mountains
early this morning in response to weak wave and jetlet
streaming in fast flow overhead. These should not amount to much
overnight. Temperatures have begun to cool more efficiently as
winds have slackened off. A patch of lower clouds may develop
in the Laurels with an upslope there. Mins will be just under
50F in the N and above 60 in the SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sunday will be highly similar to Saturday as heating bubbles up
the cu. Wind will be similarly west and gust into the teens.
However, there is a slightly higher chc for shra than Sat up in
the N during the aftn/eve as another short wave rolls toward us
across the lakes with good-timing for meeting up with peak
heating. Highs will be several degrees cooler throughout...
ranging from the upper 60s northwest to around 80F southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Seasonably strong large scale upper trough will settle over the
Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak
surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal
opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, especially across northern
portions of CWA. However, much of the this period will be
pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity
and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology.

The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by
the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the
Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge
breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the
Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its
attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend
in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity
midweek. Expect max/min temps to rise above normal levels with
noticeably increasing humidity by next Friday/Saturday along
with an increase in convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions continue across all of Central Pennsylvania this
evening. Winds have now diminished to below 8 knots in all
locations. Pesky isolated light showers continue to drift across
portions of Central Pennsylvania. While there might be an
isolated restriction to MVFR under the core of a shower,
coverage too low to include in TAFs for the overnight period.

Models continue to hint a brief period of fog and a low stratus
deck for a few hours during the late overnight period /09z-12z/
over the western and northern mountains. Have therefore
included a 3 hour period of restrictions in KBFD and KJST.
Elsewhere, those locations which saw the bulk of the rain
yesterday, including KAOO, KMDT and KLNS may see some patchy
MVFR visibility restrictions, again mainly between 09z and 12z.
Have kept mention of fog out of the KIPT and KUNV TAFs with the
00z issuance.

Short term models indicate some scattered shower activity may
develop by mid Sunday morning across the northwest, so VCSH has
been included. As today, winds again will pick up during the
mid/late morning Sunday in all locations, and could gust to
around 20 knots.

.OUTLOOK...
Mon...Mainly VFR, but scattered/numerous SHRA/TSRA north.
Tue...Mainly VFR, but scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA north.
Wed...VFR.
Thu...Mainly VFR, but isolated/scattered afternoon SHRA north.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KCCX radar will be offline for 2 to 4 days starting today,
Saturday, June 24th, for technicians to install the first of 4
major service- life extension upgrades. The work on the radar
has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Watson/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Watson/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Watson/Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Jung
EQUIPMENT...