Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210631 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 231 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH MILDER AIR BRINING A WARM DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO NORMAL WITH A DRY WEAK UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZING OVER THE SE ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH MILDER AIR ALOFT AND FULL SUNSHINE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... 850T RISES TO NEAR 10C THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 70S. SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY. FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND MILD LOW TEMPERATURES. FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO HAVE THUNDER ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG JET MAX AND RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TUE EVENING WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. NEXT FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER POPS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGHT IT DOES LOOK MAINLY DRY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THIN CIRRUS WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AT 1000FT AT 06Z ARE KEEPING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND IN A FEW VALLEYS LIKE KIPT. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE AS FLOW WEAKENS. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS...BEFORE TURNING SW MON NIGHT. FOR TUE...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO PENNSYLVANIA. OUTLOOK... TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY NW WINDS DEVELOPING LATE. TUE NIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW WINDS. THU...VFR. NO SIG WX. FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...RXR

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