Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 212018 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 418 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Turn around bright eyes to see the partial eclipse of the sun. But use special glasses or a box. Do not look directly at the sun. Radar shows high clouds over central PA due to thunderstorms to the west. Anvil tops are obscuring the sky in central areas. GOES-16 shows cloud streets in the northwest and southeast. Many should have good viewing in scattered to broken clouds. Warm afternoon and scattered showers and thunderstorms about. Chance rain diminishes in evening with areas patchy fog and humid. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Warm humid day Tuesday. Some issues with the timing of the showers in CAM verse none convective allowing models. Most guidance suggest rain likely and some strong to severe storms possible in the late afternoon/evening. Timing in some CAMS implies earlier convection than non- convective models. The front should bring in much cooler weather Tuesday night. But ahead of it Tuesday will be a warm humid day with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A strong cold frontal passage late Tuesday (NW PA)/Tuesday night (SE PA) will be followed by a extended period of early autumn-like weather for Wednesday into the upcoming weekend as an anomalously deep sfc low/upper trough slides east across southeastern Canada. Daytime high temps will be about 5-7 Deg F below normal across the Western Mtns on Wednesday, though still just slightly below normal across the SE zones prior to the arrival of the deeper/colder air for the latter part of the week. GEFS mean 850 mb temps will dip about 2-3 deg C in all locations for Thursday-Sunday, leading to max temps averaging 5-10 F below normal (with min temp departures about 10-13F below normal Friday-Sunday) as a large Canadian High Pressure area pushes SE across the Glakes Region and becomes centered over the NE states. Lows Fri/Sat/Sun mornings with high centered overhead, will be dipping into the l-m 40s over the Northern Mountains (and deeper valleys of the Central Mountains) and solidly into the 50s elsewhere. Some of the perennial cold spots near and to the east of KBFD could see readings of 38 or 39F.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms have developed over central areas from Blair to Clearfield Counties. These storms are moving to the east. More popcorn like shower possible central and eastern areas later this afternoon and evening. Most locations shown VCSH/TS though TEMPO in KAOO and KUNV as they are close to the storms and a weak line was moving toward KUNV at TAF time. Watch radar before takeoff. Overnight diminishing shower but patch MVFR in patchy fog and isolated IFR due to lower cigs near sunrise. Mixing should improve things Tuesday. But most models imply thunderstorms will be stronger and more widespread on Tuesday. .OUTLOOK... Tue...Patchy AM fog poss. Afternoon/evening tsra impacts poss. Wed...Early AM low cigs poss BFD/JST. Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/La Corte AVIATION...Grumm

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