Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 310705 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 305 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening with a few isolated showers. High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday. Increasing moisture will flow north into Pennsylvania for Thursday...bringing a better chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... Aside from the tail end of a stripe of cirrus across our far sern zones...skies will be generally clear through the mid morning hours. Sfc dewpoints will be holding in the low-mid 60s for a few more hours to the SE of Interstate 81...while drier/cooler air with dewpoints in the 50s will be found across central and nw penn. Light wind and areas of wet ground will lead to some patchy fog early today. Lows will range from the upper 40s to around 50F across northwestern penn... to the lower 60s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Slowly rising heights aloft and sfc ridging will provide a mostly sunny and warm day for residents of central PA on Tuesday. Superblend used for temps with highs ranging from the u70s over the Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s over the Susq Valley...although a few spots could crack 87F far southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Not a lot of change from the last 2 days. Made minor adjustments to the fcst package. Still looks dry and warm for Wed. Models show cold front moving into the area late Thursday into Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat. For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool down as one heads into next weekend. At this time range...too far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day to day. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening with minimal impacts. High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday. First question overnight will be duration of an MVFR stratocu deck forming over the SE, which should end as sunrise approaches. The other question will be potential for development of fog/mist due to the calming winds and clearing skies. Dewpoints lower than previous nights, but depressions not very large. So BFD, AOO, MDT and LNS could see MVFR vsbys /short-lived IFR/ until around 13Z. From mid morning onward, VFR conditions will be the rule with a light NW/N surface wind. For Wed, VFR continues except for some early morning local fog. OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Thu...A.M. cig reductions poss west. Chance of showers/tstms west. Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with restrictions poss. Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Synopsis...DeVoir/Lambert Near Term...Dangelo/Lambert Short Term...DeVoir Long Term...Martin Aviation...RXR

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