Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020844 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 444 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR ZONE OF HI PWS. THEREFORE WILL CONFINE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH NRN AREAS STAYING MAINLY DRY AS LOWER PW AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY BUT THE LOW HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z. NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA. OUTLOOK... FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE. SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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