Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170641 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 141 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm frontal system will approach the region tonight and Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High pressure will follow and bring mainly dry conditions with temperatures several degrees above normal from the middle of the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MRMS RALA showing just a few spotty showers falling across central Pa at 03Z associated with developing WAA east of storm system over the Miss Valley. Based on upstream obs, expect precip to remain very spotty/light through at least 07Z, then steadier precip slated to overspread the region from the west late tonight, as shortwave and associated low level jet arrive. All latest model guidance suggests the main freezing rain threat will be over the higher terrain of northern Pa, with a diminishing risk in the valleys and across southern Pa. Will therefore make no changes to current freezing rain advisory, but will monitor temps across southern areas for a possible expansion. QPF will be light so amounts of ice are not expected to be significant, but as we have seen several times in the past few weeks, even a little ice on untreated surfaces can cause significant problems. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A steady rain will continue Tuesday morning, as the strongest WAA accompanies passage of low level jet. SREF and NAM both indicate the possibility of lingering icing through mid morning across the high terrain of northeast Pa. The mid level shortwave and associated low level jet are progged to shift east of the area between 18Z-21Z, causing rain to taper to spotty drizzle. Surface warm front is progged to push into the Laurel Highlands during the afternoon, pushing temps into the 50s down there. Elsewhere, readings expected to top out in the 40s most places and the upper 30s over the Mtns north of Williamsport. I kept POPs near 100 pct Tuesday based on latest GEFS/SREF probs and overall favorable pattern of anomalous PWATS and strong lg scale forcing ahead of shortwave. Blend of model QPF ranging fairly close to a third of an inch tonight/Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Winds turn westerly behind the system by Wednesday morning as flow turns more zonal, but with no real cold air in sight, temps will remain on the mild side and above freezing during the day. Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late in the week, as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on the eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less in the east) with low end chances for light showers. Another wave approaches/lifts into the OH valley late next weekend into next Monday. Again, temps could be marginal at the start of pcpn overnight Sunday for some ice or snow, but the bulk of pcpn looks to be rain at this point. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions expected through 17/06z TAF period with rain spreading from west to east across the airspace by later this morning. Pockets of -fzra remain possible at the northern terminals thru 15z but temps are marginal. Outlook... Wed...MVFR/IFR west; MVFR to VFR central-southeast. Rain showers west ending Wed ngt. Thu...No sig wx. Fri...Sub-VFR possible with rain moving SW-NE. Sat...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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