Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 310404 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1204 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push east of Pennsylvania tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Line now weakening noticeably but slowing a bit as it crosses through Harrisburg. However, the rainfall is not as heavy as half an hour ago, so problems with flooding are not anticipated. The convection elsewhere is also waning. NW wind at KMDT and KMUI show that the outflow has gone through there and further, perhaps rapid, weakening is anticipated in the next hour. Previous: Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the wind shift and drier air is now through about 5/8s of the area. Intensity has gone down noticeably in the past half hour. Will hold onto a mention of strong storms in the hwo in the east for a bit but latest HRRR and RAP have this line breaking up as upper support slides east into northeastern PA and low-level convergence decreases. Have attempted to time these showers as they move E/SE for the next few hours and decrease POP as they do so with loss of heating and support. Previous: Weak cold front pushing into central PA at mid afternoon, providing sufficient moisture convergence and llvl lift to overcome weak CIN and maintain a line of isolated to scattered convection. mid level lapse rates are lacking for super strong updrafts, but a few cells could build to produce gusty winds and perhaps small hail, and cooling heavy downpours. Latest hi res cams track broken line of convection out of the Central Mountains and Laurel Highlands by 21z, and the Lower Susq River Valley by 04z late this evening. Skies will clear behind the front with sfc dewpoints falling into the 50s. Light wind and areas of wet ground will lead to some patchy fog late tonight. Lows will range from near 50F northwest to the lower 60s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Slowly rising heights aloft and sfc ridging will provide a mostly sunny and warm day to PA on Tuesday. Superblend accepted for temps with highs ranging from the u70s over the Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s over the Susq Valley...although a few spots could crack 87F far southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Not a lot of change from the last 2 days. Made minor adjustments to the fcst package. Still looks dry and warm for Wed. Models show cold front moving into the area late Thursday into Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat. For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool down as one heads into next weekend. At this time range...too far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day to day. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A ridge of high pressure will build in overnight and will continue into midweek. The forecast question overnight will be the development of fog/mist due to the calming winds and clearing skies. Given the pattern and the last few nights, BFD, AOO, MDT and LNS could see MVFR to IFR vsbys until around 13Z. More settled weather building into the region through midweek should stifle convection over the next few days with only early morning patchy fog. OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Thu...Chance of showers/tstms west. A.M. cig reductions poss west. Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with restrictions poss. Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru

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