Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231832 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 232 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the region dry through at Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will bring cooler, more seasonable weather to the region by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Ridging continues. Surface obs show increase in surface moisture to our west. With surface high slowly drifting east, look for an increase in surface moisture overnight, making for a warmer morning. Will keep mention of valley fog as well. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Another summerlike sunny day with strong high pressure over the state. There will be a noticeable increase in humidity with more uncomfortable conditions as a result. Very warm with some highs close to 90 across the SE zones. Warm and humid overnight Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An anomalous upper level ridge will remain over the region through the middle of next week, ensuring a continuation of very warm and dry weather across central Pa. GEFS mean 850 temps support max temps in the 80s through Wed, with some locations near 90F in the Susquehanna Valley. Dewpoints are expected to come up a bit, resulting in warmer nights and patchy morning fog the first half of next week. The remnants of upper level ridge will become squeezed over Pa Tue/Wed between troughing working into the Grt Lks and Maria off the east coast. Have included the slight chance of a diurnally-driven shower across the northwest and southeast corners of the forecast area Tue/Wed, while subsidence under ridge axis should keep the bulk of central Pa dry. All latest guidance indicating no impacts from Maria across central Pa, as upper trough working in from the Grt Lks causes this system to take an eastward turn well south of Pa during the second half of next week. Upper trough and associated cold front are progged by most models to push through Wed night/Thursday morning, limiting the instability and opportunity for showers. Will maintain low POPs as advertised by the 12Z Superblend. Progressively cooler and generally dry weather appears likely Thu/Fri, as northwest flow overspreads the region. Bulk of med range guidance is showing a potent shortwave diving through the Grt Lks and carving out a deepening trough over the northeast conus by next weekend. However, the threat of showers associated with this feature appear likely to hold off through Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions overnight. Patchy valley fog possible for a couple hours near sunrise Sunday. .Outlook... Sun...VFR conditions. Mon-Wed...Patchy AM valley fog possible. Otherwise VFR conditions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Ross

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