Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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926 FXUS61 KCTP 241602 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1202 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the region by midweek. A cold front will likely push southeast across the region next Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Scattered to numerous showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms have broken out along and ahead of cold front pushing into the northwest mountains at midday. Lower PW air continues to filter in on westerly flow. NCAR ensemble indicates CAPEs bubbling up to 1000 J/kg over my eastern counties, where there remains a MRGL threat. Convection- allowing models indicate the best chance of showers from late morning and early afternoon northwest...to the mid to late afternoon central and southeast. Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours will accompany these cells. It remains to be seen if CAPE will be sufficient for stronger storms over eastern sections.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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Drier air overspreads central PA tonight, bringing an end to the latest very humid seige. Mins tonight will range from the more comfortable mid 50s north to the mid 60s southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not a lot of change from yesterday. Still going mainly with dry conditions Tuesday into Wed. Did lower temperatures a degree or so on Tue, given concern for some clouds and lack of real strong cool push. Also models show pair of weak lows just inland from the south shore of the lower Great Lakes, not sure what to make of this. A strange summer lately. Still expecting showers and storms on Thursday into the first part of Friday, with the next cold front. Went with mainly dry conditions after early Friday. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Most shra activity has exited to the east as of 12z. Generally MVFR conds prevail over the central mtns and IFR over the western/northern mtns - which will persist into the mid morning hours before improvement (lasting the longest in the NW Mtns). An upper trough will push slowly across Pennsylvania today and Tue. This will kick off another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon with intermittant localized impacts. Showers diminish by evening, but linger the longest in the northern mtns. This is also the best chance for ceiling restrictions tonight. With plenty of low level moisture around, expect valley fog to develop areawide as well. .OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...AM cig restrictions north/west. Valley fog areawise. Otherwise no sig wx. Thu-Fri...Chance of afternoon TSRA/SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...RXR

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