Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240037 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 837 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY MORNING. 12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MSTR AND RELATIVLY LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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