Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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387 FXUS61 KCTP 240333 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1033 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off to the east on Friday. A cold front will bring some light rain showers on Saturday. This will be followed by a shot of colder air, with scattered light snow showers over parts of the Northwest Mountains and Laurel Highlands Saturday night into Sunday. A prolonged period of mainly dry and seasonably mild weather is then in store. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Clouds are still the forecast problem. The advancing edge is almost into the lower Susq. While the leading edge of the clouds may break up some in a slight downslope at cloud level, the northern counties will likely stay cloudy for much of the night. Some holes in the overcast do start to put holes in that theory, though. Will play a gradual clearing from SW-NE with a dissipating stripe of clouds continuing to push SE. By sunrise, the Low level flow from the southwest will likely have nudged the stratus to our north. Lows tonight will be just slightly below average with light wind and those clouds messing the temps up. Temps may actually warm (as with the other night) in the Susq vly over the next few hours, this time due to the clouds rather than a southerly wind. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure in control to start the day Friday will drift eastward as a frontal system approaches from the west (due to move through Saturday). Plenty of sunshine for Friday as temperatures rise to seasonal normals in the lower to mid 40s across the north and around 50 in the southeast. Light winds will pick up a bit from the SSW in return flow around departing high pressure, with some mixing bringing gusts to 15 mph to the NW mountains in the afternoon. Fri eve starts off mainly clear, but clouds will quickly move in from the west Fri night as SW flow increases. This will keep overnight lows in the 30s, with the warmest readings likely to be over western portions of the CWA as WAA brings rising temps there late. Coldest readings will be in the Susq Valley where radiational cooling will be more prevalent with lighter wind. Precipitation in form of rain showers will be nearing the NW Mountains by 12z Sat, with best rain chances during the day on Sat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 12Z models are in fair agreement on the timing of the upper level trough. The cold front will approach the region on Saturday. Scattered rain showers will be out ahead of the front on Saturday, followed by a period of lake effect snow showers Sat night into Sunday. There is as another blast of seasonably chilly air that will charge across the relatively mild waters of the Grt Lks. ECENS and GEFS both support below normal temperatures Sunday, as deep upper level trough swings over the northeast states. As has been the case all fall, the colder weather will be short lived with dry weather and mild temperatures returning for at least the first half of the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... More in the way of clouds across the west and north, thus adjusted the 03Z TAFS for this. Mainly clear skies with VFR conditions for Friday. Not a bad afternoon outside for late November, hope all have a good Thanksgiving. Outlook... Fri Night...LLWS developing NW half. Sat...Chance of rain showers mainly over NW half, changing to snow showers Sat night. Cig restrictions likely NW half. Sun...Chance of snow showers across the NW in the morning. Otherwise no sig wx expected. Mon-Tue...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Ross/RXR LONG TERM...Ross/Ceru AVIATION...Martin

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