Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261135 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 635 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will build east across Pennsylvania today, then off the east coast early next week. Low pressure will track north of the area during the middle of the week, with a trailing cold front pushing through Pennsylvania late Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Minor update to increase cloud cover over southern half of CWA. High pressure building into region this morning. Pressure gradient will weaken and gusty winds will diminish, along with any snow showers. Temperatures will feel quite cold given how warm its been this month but will be close to average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night with clouds increase ahead of shortwave tracking through the Mid MS/OH Valley. Model blend keeps pcpn well to the SW of the area through daybreak Monday with low pops Monday as well. Temperatures will begin to moderate with highs once again above average on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Elongated low developing over the central U.S. on Tue will edge a warm frontal boundary toward the region, bringing chance for light precipitation and ushering in another round of warmer than normal temperatures (though not as high as the past few days). By Wed, upper wave catches up to the low, bringing a more significant rainfall, followed by a cold frontal passage. Colder and very breezy conditions then in store for late week in NW flow, along with sct lake effect snow showers in the NW Mtns. Cooler air lingers into the weekend as upper flow remains from the NW. Yet another weather system slides through the Great Lakes over the weekend, with center of low likely remaining to our north. The greatest shower chances are over the NW half of the CWA. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Still some snow showers and flurries as of 6 AM. Will adjust 12Z TAFS for current activity. Gusty winds across the region today. Some snow showers and flurries across the region until early afternoon, when winds shift more to the west and southwest. MDT and LNS not likely to see flurries, but still have some clouds early. All sites should be VFR by early to mid afternoon, as winds shift, as noted above. Some rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday, as winds shift to the south, and warm advection sets in. Potential for strong wind gust later Wednesday into Thursday with a fast moving cold front. Outlook... Mon...VFR. Tue-Wed...Rain showers/Sub-VFR reductions likely. Thu...Strong FROPA early with gusty winds. Sub-VFR likely west. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Ross/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Ross/RXR AVIATION...Martin

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