Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220330 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1130 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT 01Z SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. EVENING IR LOOP HAS SHOWN CRUMBLING CU AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT TRANQUIL AND MUGGY CONDS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A NEARLY CALM WIND...CLEARING SKY AND LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALL POINT TOWARD PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. LATEST NAM/RAP BOTH INDICATE SFC RH VALUES NR 100 PCT BY DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE L/M60S OVR NEARLY ALL THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS. HIGHS TODAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS IN THE CENTRAL PA VALLEYS TUESDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES BY AFTN...YIELDING JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTN. BEST CHC SHOULD BE ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOST AREAS CLEAR NOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. 03Z TAFS ADJUSTED SOME. MUCH OF LAST NIGHT FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN ISSUE WAS THE LOWER CLDS THAT CAME IN AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND TOOK SEVERAL HOURS TO BURN...MIX OUT. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY NIL. FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER CLDS...GIVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE SW. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...MARTIN

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