Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221151 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 751 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUD EDGE JUST GETTING DOWN THE SLOPE OFF BLUE MOUNTAIN...WITH THE SHIELD STRETCHING FAR TO THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...BUT RH PLOTS DO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLD ADVECTION. 8H TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT THIS MORNING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE 0C LINE DOWN TO KJHW AND NAM PUSHING IT INTO OUR NRN COS BRIEFLY. BUT THIS SNAP WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN 12 HRS...AS MIXING AND THE WIND CHANGE THE SIGN OF THE LLVL TEMP ADVECTION BY LATE AFTN. A FEW THIN STREAMERS OFF THE LAKE MAY LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD HURON CONNECTION REACHING DOWN INTO THE LAURELS. IT IS LATE SEPT AND IT WON/T BE LONG BEFORE THIS SCENE REPEATS ITSELF WITH REALLY COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES AND THE PRECIP WILL BE THE WHITE STUFF. IT WILL BE CHILLY TODAY...WITH THE TEMP NOT MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER/MID 50S IN THE NRN HILLS. MID/UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BE RIGHT ABOUT OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. 8H TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE RISING TONIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME REINFORCEMENT TO THE CLOUDS MAY COME DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AND INVERSION WILL LET THE WINDS GO CALM AND TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE M/U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THUS...SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE IF THERE ARE NOT TOO MANY CLOUDS AROUND. A BETTER BET IS THAT SOME VALLEY FOG WILL FORM IN THE DEEPER/DARKER VALLEYS BY SUNRISE TUES AS THE TEMPS FALL WELL BELOW THE WATER TEMPS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A MENTION OF FROST AND ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO FURTHER DIAGNOSE THIS POTENTIAL TROUBLE. THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL ALSO DROP OFF NEAR 40F BY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE A MUCH MILDER DAY WITH TEMPS RISING ABOUT 25F DURING THE DAY AND REACHING ABOUT 10F MILDER THAN MONDAY IN THE NW - BUT STAYING SIMILAR TO MONDAY IN THE LOWER SUSQ. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PARK ITSELF OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH +2 TO +3 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL MSLP ANOMALIES BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING A BLOCKING 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A MASSIVE 500 HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2 TO +3 SIGMA DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL CANADA BY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DO WELL FORECASTING ANTICYCLONES SO THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A CONSENSUS ON THE FAIR WEATHER FORECAST NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION EACH MORNING ONCE THE BIG HIGH TAKES HOLD....AND CONTINUING DAILY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THAT MASSIVE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE THE DRY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO COVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING. IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE. OVER CENTRAL AIRFIELDS...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. OVER EASTERN AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND WITH DOWNSLOPING HELPING TO DISSIPATE CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT STREAMERS OF PCPN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL. WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CLOUDS WILL MEAN THAT THEY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIER AIR...SURFACE RIDGING...AND MIXING HELP TO BREAK THESE UP. GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID/LATE WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH DAILY RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING FOG POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU AVIATION...JUNG

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