Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 201033 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 533 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AT 09Z WITH WSW WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. A FEW GUSTS AOA 30 KTS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PENN. DEEPENING COLD AIR AND INCREASED DIURNAL VERTICAL MIXING WILL TAP THE STRONGER WSW WINDS FROM THE 3-4 KFT LEVEL AND CREATE FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE TODAY. COMBINE THE GUSTS WITH TEMPS THAT WILL ANYWHERE FROM 16 TO 22 DEG F BELOW NORMAL AND WE HAVE SOME VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN STORE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RANGING FROM JUST THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BY DAY...AND FROM ABOUT -5F TO 10 DEG F ABOVE TONIGHT. MEAN WIND /FROM 255 TO 65 DEG/ IN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER KEEPS THE HEAVY/INTENSE SINGLE LES BAND ANCHORED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GLAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE SNOW BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND...BEFORE THE SHORTENED FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND INCREASED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BREAKS UP THE LES INTO SEVERAL NARROW BANDS. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ELSEWHERE WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS OF NRN AND WESTERN PENN. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TO TRANSITION FROM THE LES WATCH FOR OUR NW ZONES...AND POST A LES WARNING FOR WARREN CTY AND A LES ADVISORY FOR MCKEAN COUNTY. THE LENGTH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE SHORTER THAN THE LES EXPERIENCED ACROSS NW PENN LATE LAST WEEK...SO SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF THE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET THAT FELL ACROSS FAR NWRN WARREN COUNTY OVER THE ROUGHLY 48 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN LAST THURSDAY AND LAST SAT MORNING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM JUST THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS OUR FAR NW ZONES. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU /TO THE EAST OF RT 219/ WHILE LOCALIZED AMTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SKI COUNTRY OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED/NARROW BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER. WIND GUSTS TONIGHT COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE /WITHIN THE DESCENDING/THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH OF A STORNG 140-150 KT UPPER JET...STRETCHED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST/. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER SE. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEG F COLDER THAN TODAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND. MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE. DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION. ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD. COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE NOW.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW ELEVATION SITES WILL STAY VFR WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WEST WIND. WEAK NARROW SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES...THOUGH THESE WILL BECOME LESS IN DURATION TOWARDS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALLOW JST TO BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS. ALL CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT JST AND BFD. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND CEASE BETWEEN 07Z TO 10Z. VFR SKIES WILL DOMINATE ALL TAF SITES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...EXCEPT BFD AND JST WHICH COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH. SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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