Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 221942
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
342 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Blustery northwest winds will usher in much colder air today.
Occasional light showers are possible through tonight especially
across the mountain areas and the north. The first touch of lake
effect snow flakes are possible over some of the higher ridge
tops...but no significant accumulations are expected.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Broad banding coming off LH and across LE pointing into the
Laurels. Just a sprinkle left over Sullivan Co and moving E. Rest
of the area is rather quiet wx- wise except for the noise of the
wind and various rolling objects. Mixing and downslope
warming/acceleration keeping the gusts rather coinstant in the
U20s and L30s through the daylight. It may actually get windier
this evening in the central mountains as the flow backs a little
and the flow lifts the convergence zone to the north. Sprinkles
and flurries will last into the night over the Alleghenies, again
more in the south early, and in the north later tonight. The
p-type may actually go to mainly snow for the latter half of the
night. But, ground temps and the winds will make it tough to
accumulate, as the ground will melt it, and the wind will keep it
from accumulating on cars, etc. Mins will not be far from current
temps in the northwestern half of the area since the wind will
keep it mixed. Mins SE will be L40s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cross-lake flow lifts to the north and weakens. Just some
sprinkles, flurries will affect the NW for the morning, but it
should be dry for the rest of the day. The rest of the area will
be better than today with a mostly sunny sky and temps 10-15F
higher than Sat. But, the wind will still be gusty.
A streak of showers (thunder?) should cross the north Sunday
Night. It will be moving quickly and rain will not get any farther
south than I-80. Mins will be in the 40s, and the wind will not
die off much.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As a sprawling surface and mid-level system over eastern Quebec
slowly unwinds early this week, broad cyclonic/northwest flow
will continue to reinforce colder air over Pennsylvania. Weak
shortwave sliding through early Monday will keep mention of light
showers in the NW mountains, and keep breezy conditions in place
through the day.
High pressure gradually works in from the Great Lakes Tue into
Wed keeping below normal temperatures in place. CAA comes to an
end on Wed as upper ridge finally moves through. But that will be
quickly followed by a compact low developing over the Midwest that
will be knocking on our door by Thu. Expect showers to work in
from the west later Wed night, with rain likely for much of the
area on Thu.
Model guidance quickly diverges after that, so confidence in next
weekends forecast is rather low. But looks like potetially another
quick shot of cooler air late week, with the GFS and EC battling
it out for synoptic features by Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Typical post-frontal flow is keeping sct shra in the lower elevs
of the nw and shrasn in the higher elevs. Strong wind of 15-20kt
and frequent gusts into the u20s-m30s will be the main trouble.
Winds will back some to the W early tonight and
sprinkles/flurries will become confined to KBFD. The rest of the
area will be VFR, but still have all the wind. Less clouds on
Sunday, but the wind will continue.
Sun Night...MVFR N with RA. VFR elsewhere.
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW.
Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx.