Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301126 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 726 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will influence the region through early next week...bringing daily chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the time will be dry in any one location however. high pressure will build over the northeastern united states by mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Small areas of showers continues in parts of Dauphin and Lebanon Counties early this morning...otherwise most of the CWA is seeing a quiet but very warm night. KMDT still 75 degrees at 3am. For today...looking at a very unstable and moist atmosphere with widespread showers and possible thunderstorms possible across the entire CWA. Latest HRRR runs bring these showers into CWA near day break and increase in coverage through the morning and afternoon hours. Right now it looks like heaviest showers could fall across western and central portions of CWA...areas that really need a good soaking rain. At this time believe that rainfall totals will be more beneficial in nature...but some locally heavy downpours are possible and will have to monitor closely to see if rainfall is heavy enough for flash flooding. FFG is quite high over most of the area and right now will hold off and any FFA product. With thick clouds and periods of showers...temperatures will not rise very much today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Still looking at widespread showers this evening before decreasing and coverage and intensity overnight. Sunday will start off quiet but will see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon, but less widespread than today. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Diminishing POPs into Monday as the upper level trough and cyclonic flow slowly exits off the coast. Big ridge builds over the central US and moves east to Ohio by Friday. This puts us into a drier pattern with NW flow. May see something move over the ridge but then drop to the west and south of PA. Can`t rule out some afternoon clouds popping and maybe an isolated convective cell over the higher terrain but that should be it. Temperatures will start out in the normal range and warm to above normal toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Some adjustments for the 12Z TAF package, given activity on the radar. Several areas of heavier showers and storms at 7 AM. Complex low pressure over the Great Lakes will keep showers and thunderstorms over the area today into at least Sunday if not Monday. A wide rang of conditions will prevail the next few days. OUTLOOK... SUN- MON...Morning fog restrictions, then scattered showers and isolated thunder. TUE- WED...Mainly VFR, but with morning fog restrictions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Watson/Ross AVIATION...Martin

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