Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 030552 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 152 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... COLD FRONT STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWING THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COULD STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLD -SHRA ALONG THE S TIER EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED A 15 POP S OF THE TURNPIKE THRU 09Z. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FORCED TO ASCEND THE ALLEGHENIES WILL RESULT IN STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE W MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER EAST...CLEARING SKIES...A LIGHT WIND WIND AND WET GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAWN. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE M50S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TAKE UNTIL ARND 14Z TO MIX OUT OVR THE W MTNS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPLY MSUNNY AND WARM CONDS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M70S NW MTNS TO THE M80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE FAIR TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS THE ONLY REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS HIGH PRES SLIPS OFF THE E COAST THURSDAY...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS OFF THE SE COAST...MDLS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG IT/S N PERIPHERY ACROSS THE E GRT LKS. IN GENERAL...TEMPS ALOFT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA OVR THE MTNS OF CENTRAL PA AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MODERATE-INTENSITY SFC CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC THU THRU SAT. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR PCPN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEWD FRONTAL PROGRESSION. A SLOWER TREND MAY BE EMERGING IN THE 12Z GFS/GEFS WITH ITS FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNING CLOSER WITH THE ECMWF/GEM BY 00Z SUN. MAX POPS SHIFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA FROM 00Z SAT TO 00Z SUN. AHEAD OF CDFRONT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON FRIDAY WITH MEAN H85 TEMPS +18-20C SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS 85-90F. THE NEXT QUESTION CONCERNS HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CLEARS SRN PA ON SUNDAY WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT HANGS BACK ALONG THE APPLCHNS/MID-ATLC PIEDMONT...AS ENERGY IS SHEARED NEWD THRU THE NRN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ORIENTED MORE WESTERLY. MEAN PW FIELDS SHOW DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS AND POPS TO TREND LOWER DURING THE LATER PERIODS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT SE OF THE AREA NOW. MOST AREAS NOW VFR...BUT IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST. SOME POTENTIAL STILL FOR FOG...BUT A SLIGHT BREEZE MAY LIMIT FOG SOME. AFTER ABOUT 14Z...LOOKING AT A FINE LATE SUMMER DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MAYBE SOME FOG THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER DECENT DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF PM TSTMS WEST. SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. COLD FROPA. SUN...AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...MARTIN

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