Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250029 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 729 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A deep storm near Cape Cod will continue moving away from the region. High pressure and unseasonably mild conditions will briefly return for Wednesday before a new cold front moves through late Wednesday night and early Thursday. Breezy and colder weather will continue through the end of what has been a very mild month.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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The last remnants of a weakening band of light snow/rain are moving through my NERN counties. Precip will continue to become less and less likely overnight as high pressure approaches from the west. Upslope flow over the west could produce a bit of interest tonight with the potential for some light drizzle to develop. Temps may be just cold enough over parts of the NW mountains for a bit of freezing drizzle. Chances too low to do anything about it now, but will have to keep an eye on that through the evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure does crest over the area Wed AM, and 8H temps should rise to +4 to +8C across the CWA. Maxes with the downslope, higher mixing and no snow cover in the SE could be near 50F, but the snowier places will strain to get above 40F. Clouds will thicken and lower late in the day over the west as next system approaches. But, will keep POPs out of the area for the daylight hours. Though it will be a light QPF event, PoPs will become quite high over the NW half of CWA Wed night as low pressure slides in from the Midwest. PoPs slower to rise over the eastern and southern portions of CWA as low lifting to the NE as it passes. Overall, temps remain warm enough for precip to remain all rain through 10z Thu before a cold front brings colder air in from the west and begins to mix snow in with the rain over the NW mtns. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... All medium range models and EFS are in good agreement and have been consistent in showing a well-defined pattern change from a more active and southern stream dominant pattern, to northwest flow. A highly amplified/anomalously strong upper ridge and sprawling sfc high will set up along the West Coast and Great Basin Area respectively, while several short waves help to carve out a large scale and highly meridional trough east of the Mississippi beginning Thursday, and lasting right through the end of this month. An initial, then secondary cold front (trailing south from low pressure over southeastern Canada) will push SE across the commonwealth on Thursday, with lingering rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow showers, and becoming more frequent across the NW mtns during the afternoon and evening. This pattern change will result in frequent snow showers across the Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands, with a few to several inches of snow accum likely accumulating each 48 hour period. Periods of more significant LES will occur across the Perennial NW PA snowbelt where some LES Advisories/Watches or even Minimal warnings may be needed. Across the central ridge and valley region, expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies from stratocu of varying thickness with flurries and scattered snow showers. Some periods of sunshine will likely be limited to the Middle and Lower Susquehanna Valley where just some brief flurries will fly from time to time. Thursday and Friday will be the windiest days with gusts likely in the 25 to 30 kt range both day (and even some higher gusts possible across the mountains, and to the SE of gaps in the ridges). Expect a prolonged period of seasonably cold daytime temperatures (mainly in the 20s to at times near 30F across the northern and wrn mtns, and 30s to near 40F elsewhere throughout the central and southern valleys) with min temps at night likely a few to several deg F above normal as a result of the extensive cloud cover in most areas, and periods of breezy/windy conditions. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Winter storm currently tracking up the New England coast with effects over Central PA continuing to wane. Just light precip (likely non-accumulating) persisting over northern and parts of central mountains will taper off completely over next several hours. NW winds will pick up to around 10-15 mph and gusty. Central and eastern areas will see improving ceilings in downslope flow and should return to VFR this evening. Upslope flow over the west will keep mainly IFR conditions in place and could produce a bit of interest tonight as it looks like potential for drizzle to develop. Temps may be just cold enough over parts of the NW mountains for possibly a bit of freezing drizzle. Conditions improve to VFR areawide (latest in the NW Mtns) on Wed as high pressure traverses the region. Restrictions spread in from the west again Wed night as another low pressure system brings light rain back into the region. Outlook... Wed...Low cigs early western 1/2. Otherwise VFR. Breezy late. Wed night...Light rain moves in from the west. Restrictions slowly spread from NW to SE. Thu-Fri...MVFR/IFR in snow showers west. MVFR to VFR east. Sat-Sun...MVFR in snow showers west. VFR east. && .CLIMATE... Yes, it snowed over much of the area, but the month of January is still wayyyy above normal on temperatures. For example, there have been 13 out of the 23 days this month have been 9 or more degrees above normal. KIPT is 5.9 degs above normal for the month so far, and KMDT is 5 degs above normal for the month. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/RXR NEAR TERM...La Corte/RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl AVIATION...RXR CLIMATE...Dangelo

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