Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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918 FXUS61 KCTP 260850 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 450 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will remain south of the commonwealth through Wednesday. High pressure will return for mid week with continued warm temperatures. An area of low pressure approaching from the west is likely to lift through the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Diffuse sfc cold front appears to have slipped south of the Mason Dixon line early this morning. Air mass remains warm and quite humid to the north of it...and areas of fog are widespread. A few METARs have dropped below one mile and it remains to be seen if dense fog will develop or become widespread in areas where it rained yesterday afternoon and evening. Deep layer moisture continues to decrease from north to south thanks to flat ridging building eastward from the Ohio Valley and northerly component to boundary layer flow in the wake of aforementioned front. This will keep the focus for diurnal convection south of the region over MD/WV/VA this afternoon and evening...although an isolated shower or tstorm cannot be entirely ruled out across southern portions of the Laurel Highlands. Despite slightly lower dewpoints over central PA today...it will still be quite warm and humid with highs ranging from the lower 80s north to the lower 90s south...where Apparent temps will reach the upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Rich deep layer moisture remains pooled south of the Mason Dixon line tonight and Wednesday...providing dry conditions overall. Mid to high level convective debris from the midwest and Ohio Valley may filter the sky from time to time particularly on Wednesday...and there is a better chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm Wed aftn along the Maryland border over southern portions of the Laurel Highlands and south Central Mountains. Elsewhere it should remain dry and very warm. Lows tonight should reach the comfortable mid to upper 50s northwest...ranging to the muggy lower 70s southeast. highs Wednesday will be a few ticks higher than Tuesday across the north and generally unchanged south...and will range from the mid 80s north to the lower 90s southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... In the extended the heat continues through midweek...then a cooling trend to near normal highs looks likely for a few days as several fronts linger over the area and the core of hot temperatures shifts west. The upper ridge across the Southern U.S. is forecast to retrogress into the Southwestern U.S. by late in the week allowing northern stream energy to produce a weak, but persistent troffing across the northeast states. Cold front currently crossing the region is forecast to stall just south of the PA/MD border. A wave is forecast to form on the front supported by the developing upper trof, moving east through the Ohio Valley Friday and crossing PA on Saturday into Sunday. This looks to bring a prolonged period of unsettled with weather with showery conds across the state. The cloudiness will further support cooler high temperatures than recent days. Low temperatures during this period look to be several degrees above normal, especially across southern sections of the state. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... No wind around the area so the weak front will stick just S of the border tonight and perhaps into Thursday. Fog is once again the main concern for the next 6 hrs. IPT has been down and up with the vis recently, but the low cig at fl003 will probably hang on all night with LIFR expected no matter the vis. Other terminals may also get foggy or low cigs. However, climatology is unfavorable for IFR to develop anywhere but JST and BFD. It has had a chance to dry out at BFD. So, maybe only JST will sink as low as IPT. Have included MVFR fog at all other terminals. Once the fog/crud lifts, it should be dry with lower humidity levels, and mainly VFR conditions. There is the smallest chance for a late-day SHRA at JST, but have not included a mantion at this range. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR. THU-SAT...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Neither Harrisburg nor Williamsport reached/exceeded their record max on Monday (7/25). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/La Corte NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Dangelo CLIMATE...

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