Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 030707 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 307 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... 230 AM UPDATE... LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAIN CHANGES WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING/... SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE STATIONARY FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE STRATIFICATION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE 12-16 HOUR EVENT WILL BE JUST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOST COULD PICK UP AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY NOON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE 025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT. FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA. SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX. MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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