Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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532 FXUS61 KCTP 140150 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 950 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Continued seasonably warm and humid * Afternoon and evening focused showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, with the most widespread activity, featuring locally heavy downpours this afternoon and evening. * At this point, Tuesday looks like the driest day of the next seven && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Several clusters of highly efficient TSRA were drifting slowly east across the CWA this evening with rainfall rates topping 3 inches/hour for short intervals. The primary areas of concern for the next several hours (with the Flood Watch running through 05Z Monday) will be across our NW Mtns (SE Warren County specifically) where a weak quasi-stnry sfc boundary was topped by the southern edge of an area of enhanced upper level divergence (and broadly diffluent flow) with the approach of the right entrance region of a 70-80 kt 300 mb jet. Another area of concern is across Scent PA where new convection on the western edge of a TSRA cluster is beginning to lift slowly north and back over areas that received 1-2+ inches of rain over the past few hours. SFC Based CAPE still exceeds 2000 J/KG in this area. A 3rd and 4th area that bears watching over the next 3-4 hours is across the Laurel Highlands and over the Mtns North and East of KIPT. Elsewhere, stabilization of the boundary layer and diminishing topographic effects will greatly reduce the coverage and strength of any lingering convection across much of the Central and Western Mtns, though decoupling of the BLYR and an enhancement of the LLJ could bring a few more elevated, brief heavy rain producers overnight, Fog is possible, esp where the rain falls this aftn/evening. But, two areas of lower clouds are expected, one over the NW with a lowering inversion there, and marine air trying to get back in like it has both of the last two nights. But, the SErly flow may not be as strong as the past two nights. We will still paint some higher cloud cover in the east, but not bring it too far into the CWA. Low temps tonight will be fairly similar to last night with mid-upr 60s across the Northern and Western Mtns and low to mid 70s in the Susq Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Short MBE vectors and relatively light flow (still only 20KT deep shear over MDT) continue on Monday, as the last many days, and will keep the FF risk higher than normal. Current ERO is a SLGT for our SErn third, but tapers to nil for the NW few counties. The moisture and approach of a stronger longer-wave trough will create widespread SHRA/TSRA in the aftn/evening on Monday, mainly over the eastern half of the area. Will ponder another FF Watch for Mon aftn/evening. PHI has posted a FF Watch for their area already for Monday and should make our decision bit easier. We`ll still hold off until mid shift or Mon AM to make that (Mon) watch decision in order to be able to see where the heaviest stuff falls this evening and tonight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The cold front pulls slowly moves through the area Monday evening into Tuesday morning, allowing for a brief period of no precipitation across central Pennsylvania through the morning hours on Tuesday. This will be short-lived, however, as the front will move back in to the southern tier Tuesday afternoon and trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms. Large-scale pattern remains fairly consistent, allowing for continued chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across central Pennsylvania throughout much of the long-term forecast period. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Scattered, slow moving SHRA/TSRA will continue through about 05Z across the Susq Valley and points just to the east and also across the Northern Mtns (Both areas being in the vicinity of low level moisture convergence along weak sfc troughs). A small cluster of TSRA lifting NE twd the Laurel Highlands of SW PA may impact the KJST area between 0330Z and 05Z Monday. Overnight, patchy fog is likely where it rained earlier, and there is a 50% chc that the marine stratus gets back into the far eastern terminals (LNS, MDT as well as MUI) through the night. Have brought most everyone into MVFR overnight and IFR for BFD, UNV, IPT, MDT and LNS. Still a 90% chc for a break in the convection between 08Z and 14Z. But the approach of a deeper upper trough from the west is a good signal that storms will form again Monday. Will just mention after 16Z. Most of the storms will be SE of IPT-UNV- AOO depending on timing of the trough axis, but a few are possible to the NW of that area. Outlook... Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Isold-Sct PM TSRA poss, mainly south. Thurs-Fri...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Monday for PAZ006-011-012-017>019- 024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB AVIATION...Lambert/Dangelo