Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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792 FXUS61 KCTP 280719 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 319 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure build into the area tonight providing dry and cool conditions. Wednesday morning will be quite chilly with lows in the 40s and 50s. The high will move off the east coast setting up a warmer and more humid airflow beginning on Thursday. A cold front on Saturday will bring a brief break in the humidity. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Isolated showers winding down over the Endless Mountains. Will carry slight chc pops through midnight. Drier air to the west has brought an end to all other activity. With clear skies and light winds, look for good radiational cooling for a few hours overnight and by morning temperatures will be in the 40s over the northern half of the area and 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... High pressure provides a quiet weather day with mild afternoon temperatures with low humidities for the afternoon hours, making for very comfortable weather for late June. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Did not make a lot of large changes on this package. Warm advection on Thursday could result in an isolated strong storm, mainly along the NY border. Fcst dewpoints not all that high for late June, so think activity will be limited. Overall the pattern is becoming more humid, more like one often gets in late June into late August. The main thing is that while 500 mb height rise into next week, the combination of a weakness across the eastern part of the country at 500 mb, wet ground, and higher dewpoints, will result in some showers and storms at times next week. Prior to this, a weak cold front will move into the area by the weekend. Most likely this weak cold front will move across the area on Saturday but the front is progged to be weak, so temperatures will not change much, just a bit of a break in the humidity. Did go with a dry period Sunday Night into early Tue. Went with some showers and storms after this, but did adjust superblend POPS some to fit with the pattern and others. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure building into the area from the Ohio Valley will supply mainly VFR conditions and light wind tonight across central Pa. Only area of concern is BFD, and to a lesser degree IPT. Both locations received rain showers making those spots more susceptible to fog overnight. Winds have gone calm at BFD and dewpoint depressions are within 1. Given that and the clear skies I have TEMPO group for MVFR vsbys beginning at 09Z. At IPT, the rain was lighter and would put the odds of significant (IFR) reductions there at around 10 pct. Plus winds remain persistent at IPT which should further reduce chances of fog/mist formation. Elsewhere, confidence is very high in VFR conditions overnight. Any patchy fog that may form overnight should burn off by around 13Z Wednesday. High pressure over the region should ensure VFR conditions and light winds for the rest of the day. .OUTLOOK... Thu-Fri...Isolated PM tsra impacts poss, mainly northern Pa. Sat...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible. Sun...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Ceru is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.