Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 302333 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 733 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Warm front pushing northeast across Central Pennsylvania bringing scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms this evening and overnight. The associated low pressure system will slide east across the Mid-Atlantic Friday and Friday night bringing more rain to the area. Sunday should be a dry day and then another low pressure system will track through late Monday into Tuesday. A third low is likely to track west of PA through the Great Lakes during the later half of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some elevated thunderstorms this evening moved across Johnstown, Altoona, State College, Lock Haven, and Harrisburg areas. Surface temps under the inversion only in the lower 40s and upper 30s in those areas. The inversion and southeast flow is keeping central PA in the cold air. Snow and sleet fell earlier across the northern tier of PA and temperatures are still hovering around 33 to 34 degrees. Not much change is expected overnight. Temps may rise a few degrees or stay about the same. Expect to see a few dry hours behind this batch of showers moving through. The next area of showers and thunderstorms is over eastern ohio moving toward Pittsburgh. This should reach northwest PA after midnight tonight with increasing likelihood for occassional showers everywhere overnight. A strong 40+KT low level jet develops tonight in advance of the primary low center moving into nrn OH. Thus, moisture transport increases again.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Primary low moving into NW PA on Friday will diminish in favor of a secondary low developing over central VA. The new low slides just to the SE of the local CWA. But, the instability around the low and just NW of it will probably cause some TSRA on Friday. QPF is still O/O of 1-2 inches. However, this should only make some of the rivers in the east make it up to/over their respective caution stages. Most of that water is coming from upstream. Overall, the rainfall will be spread out over the next 36 hours. So, local flooding is not enough of an issue to make for a flood watch.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An active split flow jet stream pattern across North America will bring multiple chances for precipitation to the region during much of the long term period. A slower moving longwave trof looks to develop across the eastern Great Lakes and middle Atlantic region late next week. Any early showers Friday night should give way to slowly improving conditions Saturday, as main surface low exits the coast and a drier northwest flow takes hold. Some breaks in the cloud cover should occur Saturday afternoon, esp across the Lower Susq Valley where drying downslope flow will be enhanced. Max temps Saturday should return to near seasonal norms. Fair and mild weather appears likely Sunday, as high pressure ridge builds across the state. However, the next potent and moisture laden southern stream wave heads our way for Mon night and Tuesday, bringing a likelihood of a widespread rain. A brief break is likely around next Wednesday, then another round of significant rainfall appears possible by the later half of next week when all med range guidance tracks the aforementioned upper trof/closed low northeast through the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry slot moving into wrn PA at 3 PM seems to be the warm sector. However, the SE flow over the area will make it tough to displace the cool air. Some reports of PL/SN across the nrn tier. The temps should warm slightly over the next few hours and precip become more-spotty. TSRA dying as it moves eastward along the Mason-Dixon Line. Expect it to diminish further quickly. Other cluster of TSRA over wrn PA is likely to reach the wrn highlands as well. Thus, it could reach BFD. However, it is still cool and stable there. Will not mention TS there just yet. A general lull in precip will continue as the warm sector moves in. The se flow at the sfc looks to continue so, all MOS guidance continues to lower cloud cover later tonight and showers return from the west, esp in the N. Also, an area of instability develops over DC and moves up into MDT/LNS around sunrise. Have mentioned prob30 of TS there for 12-18Z/31st. Widespread showers should affect the area on Friday. Outlook... Sat: MVFR cigs N/W. VFR elsewhere. Sun: VFR/No sig wx. Mon: VFR early then rain/low cigs vis spreading W-E. Tues: MVFR in -SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Watson/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Watson/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner AVIATION...Dangelo

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.