Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 021119 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 719 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RADAR LOOP AT 09Z SHOWING A FEW -SHRA WORKING THRU CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE E GRT LKS. WANING LG SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN ANY REMAINING -SHRA FALLING APART ARND SUNRISE. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE...AS DEPICTED BY DARKENING IN WV IMAGERY ENTERING W PA...SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THE DAY WILL START WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST THE WINDWARD /WEST/ SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENIES...BUT DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BLYR SHOULD RESULT IN BRIGHTENING SKIES ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MSUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A POTENT-LOOKING SHORTWAVE...OVR IOWA EARLY THIS AM...WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPC PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL PA /WITH EXCEPTION OF LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/ IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WGUSTS. CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...ALONG WITH AM LOW STRATUS...SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TODAY. LATEST OPER AND ENS DATA PRODUCE ONLY MINIMAL CAPES OF BELOW 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY MID-LVL FLOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE LATE DAY CONVECTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHERE SKIES REMAIN MSUNNY INTO THE AFTN...MDL 850TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MEANWHILE...EARLIER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW MTNS SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO THE L/M 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN PA...CLOSEST TO TRACK OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE. COLD FRONT AND ASSOC SHOWER THREAT WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z. CLEARING SKIES...A LGT WIND AND WET GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE OVR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...SUPPLYING MSUNNY AND WARM CONDS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M70S NW MTNS TO THE M80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THU INTO FRI...ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LIFTING INTO S CANADA ON FRI...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG BEHIND. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...AN AREA OF HIGHER PWATS /1-2"/ SURGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THEN INTO PA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AT SAME TIME A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING FRI NIGHT IN THE NW AND SPREADING AREAWIDE ON SAT. AHEAD OF CDFRONT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK FRIDAY WITH MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS BTWN 85-90F. BEHIND THE FRONT...AIRMASS CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK ABOUT 10F...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...MORNING LOWS SHOULD DIP WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING. RATHER STRONG WIND FIELDS...SO IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY. SOME RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SE. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMT OF SFC CONVERGENCE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. SOME BREEZE EXPECTED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. THUS DID NOT PUT FOG IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR WED INTO THU...AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF PM TSTMS WEST. SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR AVIATION...MARTIN

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