Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 031558 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1158 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FROM THE NORTH TODAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AS EXPECTED BUT ARE LIFTING WITH THE MIXING OF THE STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE/HEATING. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO MAKE MAXES ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMS IN THE S AND NEARLY NORMAL IN THE NRN TIER WITH THE MORE-ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE SRN TIER WITH DEWPOINTS LOW- ISH AND MORE- PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THERE. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MOIST SERLY FLOW DEEPENS DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS/. RELATIVELY FLAT DIURNAL TEMP CURVE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW THUR MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S NORTH...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS THURS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...BUT COULD TOUCH 70-72F ACROSS WARREN COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST...WHERE A DOWNSLOPING LLVL SERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS ENOUGH CAPE TO POP UP AN AFTERNOON SHRA OR TSRA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... JUST KJST HANGING IN THE IFR...BUT DO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR THERE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE BOARD. GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. UPSLOPE/MARITIME SSE FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME DZ/RA-- INTO EARLY FRIDAY - MAINLY FOR THE SRN TERMINALS. KBFD MAY STAY SUNNY ENOUGH TO HAVE AN ISOLD TSRA NEARBY THURS. BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS RANGE. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN TIER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER SLIDING NORTHWARD THRU THE FCST AREA. THUS...FOG IMPACTS WILL BE LESS THAN THIS/WED MORNING. CFROPA ON FRI WILL LEAD TO SCT/NMRS TSRA MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BUT BEFORE FROPA...MIXING AND A SRLY BREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO A VFR DAY AFTER SOME MORNING CIG/VIS IMPACTS. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS. SUN...CHC OF P.M TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE. && .CLIMATE... MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991, 1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT AVIATION...STEINBUGL CLIMATE...

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