Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241138 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 738 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Heavy showers associated with post tropical storm Cindy have pushed well east of the region at mid morning. An essentially dry cold front slides from Central to Eastern Pennsylvania late this morning. Mainly dry and cooler air with comfortable humidity will arrive and last through much of the coming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Front accelerating east early this morning with showers rapidly diminishing across central PA. Fractured line of light showers is really falling apart as per latest regional radar mosaic and expect all of my areas to be mostly rain-free by 800 am. The rest of today will feature improving conditions, with just a slight chc/low chc of afternoon showers across the West Central/Northwest and North Central Mountains where lapse rates are steep enough to support moderate cumulus towers. Think the remainder of central and southeast PA will be dry after the front passes by 900 AM. Afternoon highs should range from the mid 70s north to the lower to middle 80s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Any late afternoon showers will diminish quickly this evening as diurnal heating is lost. Skies will become mostly clear and it will be very comfortable overnight over especially northern and western sections where lows will bottom out around 50F. Mins across the southeast will fall to the lower 60s. Sunday will be a similar afternoon to Saturday...with lapse rates steep enough to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers over mainly western and northern sections. Highs will be several degrees cooler throughout...ranging from the upper 60s northwest to around 80F southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models have trended toward much better agreement with the evolution of the seasonably strong large scale upper trough over the Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology. The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity. Expect max/min temps to get back to seasonal levels around midweek and likely reaching above normal levels by next Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Deep moisture associated with the remnants of TS Cindy will get pushed off the east coast today. Improvement to mainly vfr flying conditions with some periods of MVFR over the northern and western mountains will occur late this morning. Deep Vertical mixing up to around 7kft agl will transport some moderate westerly wind gusts of 20-25mph to the surface beginning around 13-14Z and continuing through the late afternoon, before subsiding twd dusk. While moist upslope flow will keep lower ceilings in western mountains a bit past 12z, most areas across the central and southern areas will rapidly improve to VFR with sct-bkn cigs in the 4-6 kft agl range. .OUTLOOK... Sat...Scattered restrictions in AM showers...otherwise becoming VFR. Sun...Mainly VFR. Mon-Tue...Mainly VFR, but with a chance of SHRA/TSRA. Wed...VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar will be offline for approximately 4 days starting Saturday, June 24th for technicians to install the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations and will be delayed if hazardous weather is forecast. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Jung/Lambert EQUIPMENT...Lambert

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