Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 252253 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 653 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonable late-September heat will continue in central PA through mid week. Mostly dry weather will also prevail with a passing shower possible in spots on Wednesday and Friday or Saturday. A pattern change will bring cooler, fall-like weather back to the area for second half of the week into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Yet another warm and muggy late-summer-like evening in progress here in late September. The overnight will be more of the same thanks to sprawling upper ridge...very mild with mainly clear skies and more valley fog after midnight lasting into early Tuesday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Another day of summerlike heat and humidity expected across central PA. Highs may be trimmed a bit across southeast PA as some clouds bands associated with Maria wrap into the area. Some hires and even coarser global models try to develop some isolated convection Tuesday afternoon but odds remain strongly in favor of dry wx pattern. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Wed, the start of the cooldown back to seasonal temperatures will be underway. The blocking high that has been responsible for the recent extended spell of dry and anomalously warm conditions will flatten as a trough slides across southern Canada, dragging a weak cold front through on Wed and nudging Maria eastward. This front will bring our first chance of rain in quite a while - though with the front weakening and falling apart as it moves through any scattered showers will remain light. Maria (remaining offshore of the Carolinas) will make it as far north as the NC/VA line before it takes its hard turn eastward and finally tracks away from the east coast. A bit more significant trough will approach for late week into the weekend, bringing a reinforcement of the cooler temperatures and a renewed chance for light yet scattered showers as the airmass remains quite dry. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions into tonight. No reason to deviate from persistence with fog restrictions likely again after midnight into early Tuesday morning. Based on persistence and latest model data, believe a period of IFR/LIFR conditions are likely (mainly between 08Z-13Z) at KBFD/KIPT/KUNV/KAOO/KLNS, possible at KMDT and very unlikely at KJST. Wed...Spotty PM shower possible. Mainly VFR. Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri-Sat...Isold-sct showers possible. Mainly VFR. && .CLIMATE... Record-challenging late-September heat through early week. Daily high temperature records for 9/25 and 9/26: Bradford: 83 in 2007, 79 in 1998 *Williamsport: 89 in 1970, 92 in 1900 Harrisburg: 93 in 1970, 91 in 1970 Altoona: 90 in 1970, 88 in 1998 *Williamsport maximum temperature records are under review for Saturday and Sunday 9/23-9/24. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl CLIMATE...

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