Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291125 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 725 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will sag slowly southeast across the region early today. High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry weather for today into Wednesday. A cold front will move across the commonwealth Wednesday followed by a refreshingly cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc cold front will be bisecting the state from NE to SW during the mid to late morning hours...before drifting into southeastern Pennsylvania and northern VA this afternoon. Nothing more than a few very brief showers/sprinkles were noted along the frontal boundary at this time. Mid and high clouds are dissolving/lifting off to the NE in association with deeper uvvel beneath the departing R.E. region of a 90kt 300 mb jet. Areas of fog and low stratus were forming across mainly the Laurel Highlands (thanks to nearly calm air and peeling away of the mid/high clouds). a light NW breeze and more multi-layered cloud cover was limiting the extent of fog across the nrn mtns. Low temps in the next hour or two will range from the lower 60s across the Laurels...to the mid and upper 60s elsewhere. The weak cold front will stall along or just south of the Mason/Dixon Line this afternoon providing the low level convergence to help focus what will be isolated to scattered convection during the afternoon over southern PA. After the mid to late morning high clouds shift east and dissipate overhead, a low PWAT air mass working in behind the front should result in abundant sunshine over much of the region for the midday and afternoon hours today. Even across the south, expect decreasing cu by late aftn, as the front clears the area and drier air arrives. High temps this afternoon will vary from near 80 across the NW Mountains to around 90 in the southern valleys. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... High pressure builds into the region tonight...before becoming centered right overhead Tuesday afternoon. Mainly clear skies and very low PWAT air for late August (of 0.5 to 0.75 of an inch) will settle into the state from the NW tonight. Mins early Tuesday will range from the chilly upper 40s throughout the perennial cold mountain valleys up north...to the 50s across much of Central PA, with mid 60s in the Lower Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result, above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the period. Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front pushing SE across the area Wednesday afternoon/early Wed night, with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next week and into Saturday. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday into the weekend over the northern and western higher terrain, with low to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough amplifies from central Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will move into the airspace through the day with winds 5-10kt from 330-360. Early morning fog/low clouds will give way to widespread VFR flying. Patchy BR/FG possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Added VCFG to KBFD/KIPT after 06-09z. Outlook... Tue...Patchy AM fog, then VFR. Wed...Sct PM TS impacts possible. Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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