Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 041822 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 222 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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VIZ SATELLITE SHOWS A TIDY SWIRL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS SPEEDING ALMOST DUE EAST OFF THE COAST. THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO EVENING COOKOUTS OR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR WARMING COMING FROM ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHATEVER PARTIAL SUNSHINE WE MAY BE ABLE TO MUSTER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EARLIER TODAY...DRYING ALOFT ON TOP OF LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK TO BE PRIME INGREDIENTS FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY. LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
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AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...SUNDAY SHOULD BE GORGEOUS WITH LIGHT WINDS...BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WHAT NORMAL IS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATL COAST ALLOWING FOR SOME SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS OFF. OUTLOOK... MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE

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