Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 021743 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1243 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BOUT OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY/MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MAINLY RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER TROF SLICING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING ITS ASSOCIATED POST FRONTAL SFC TROF PASSAGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MEASURED ON ROOF HERE AT INNOVATION PARK JUST NORTH OF PENN STATE CAMPUS...AND COLDER AIR IS NOW RUSHING DOWNHILL TOWARDS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER PRE DAWN MAXES BRIEFLY JUMPING ABOVE FREEZING. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE. SCT TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST/ NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL LAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. REGIONAL METARS INDICATE MOST VSBYS IN THE 2SM RANGE...BUT BLOWING IS LOCALLY REDUCING VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A COATING TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 1 ADDITIONAL INCH ON THE WEST FACING SLOPES/RIDGETOPS TO THE WEST OF RT 219 THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY USING A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. MOST HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT LIVED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARMER AIR ALOFT MORE READILY INVADES THE REGION FROM THE SW /ALONG WITH NOTABLY HIGHER PWAT VALUES/. CONSENSUS BLEND OF 00-06Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE LATEST ENS GUIDANCE LEADS TO A SOLUTION FOR AN INITIAL FEW TO SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF MIXED PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. PAINTED A GENERAL COATING-1 INCH OF SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SUSQ VALLEY...WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FZRA. ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.15-0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF PA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR WED...TOOK SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE NW. TIGHT THICKNESS PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW PA TO SE PA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY NW OF OUR AREA. LEFT POPS UP...THINK FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. IN FACT...THE 00Z EC AND FRESH IN 06Z NAM BOTH HIGHLIGHT A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND EXTENSIVE RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE... STREAMING NE ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED-OUT FRONT /JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE...AND OHIO RIVER/. THIS WILL GREATLY COMPLICATE THE WEATHER FOR THE LATE WED INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT-MDT SNOWFALL ACROSS SE THIRD TO HALF OF PENN. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS BY TO OUR NE...A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF FEBRUARY BEHIND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WNW FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA WITH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND LOCALLY OVER 40 MPH. OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL HANG ON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO LATE MORNING. CENTRAL MTNS MAINLY SEEING CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR /WITH SOME BLSN/...WHICH WILL ALSO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON TO VFR. N/W HIGHER TERRAIN GETTING COMBO REDUCTIONS OF BOTH CIGS/VSBYS WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS... WHICH WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WE/LL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE...VFR AM. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS AND LLWS DEVELOPING LATE AFT AND LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN. THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE. FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR

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