Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251602 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1102 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A line of thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are forecast this afternoon across east-central Pennsylvania. Gusty winds and noticeably colder temperatures will follow behind a cold front later today into tonight with scattered snow showers across the Alleghenies.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Line of moderate showers with a few embedded thunderstorms/ltg moving quickly east across the Alleghenies into the central Ridge/Valley region. Temperatures have likely reached their max west of a line from Wellsboro to State College to Bedford. 15z SPC mesoanalysis shows a pocket of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE starting to develop over the Lower Susq. Valley where temps should peak around 70F around midday-early afternoon. Strong forcing along cold front moving into high shear/low CAPE environment over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the CWA should support solid/intensifying line of convection. CAMs show the evolution of a strongly-forced squall line rather well, moving quickly east with peak timing/intensity fcst between 17 and 21 UTC. The line should exit the CWA after 21z with risk for severe storms/damaging winds ending this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Temps will drop very quickly and should be back into the L-M30s in the NW by the end of the aftn. SHRA will turn to SHSN there in the aftn. Winds will be gusting into the 30s with some peaks in the 40s behind the front. But, at this point, it does not look like a wind advy is necessary. Cold northwesterly flow could allow for snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. However lack of moisture will only bring light accumulations with the highest amounts in the NW mtns. After some morning flurries and scattered snow showers in the NW Sunday, the trough will continue its eastward trek and a more zonal pattern will overtake the region. This will bring more tranquil conditions with some sunshine expected for Sunday afternoon, along with decreasing winds. However, max temperatures on Sunday will be back to near normal. Heights are forecast to rebuild across the eastern half of the conus early next week on broad southwesterly flow ahead of troffing developing over the Rockies.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The latest 00Z Oper and EFS runs show a warm frontal boundary moving into the region Tuesday. This will bring the next chance for light precipitation with possible warmer than normal temperatures though not as high as currently. Another upper level trough moving through the Great lakes could bring another cold front through the mid Atlantic region later next week. There are inconsistencies in timing and placement. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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25/15z| Line of moderate showers with embedded thunderstorms moving across the western 1/2 of the airspace this morning. The line is expected to intensify over ZNY sector with risk for strong to locally damaging winds (40+KT) impacting the eastern 1/2 of the airspace 17-21z. Gusty winds (25-35KT) expected behind cold front with wind shift to 250-300 degrees by this evening. Expect shower activity to taper off behind the front from west to east behind the front later this afternoon into the evening. Colder air will filter into the area with scattered light snow showers developing downwind of Lake Erie and across the higher terrain of western PA with some lower CIGs and brief visby reductions psbl into Sunday. Outlook... Sun...MVFR/-shsn west bcmg VFR. Mainly VFR central-east. Decreasing winds. Mon...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain. Tue-Wed...Rain showers/reductions likely.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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**Updated 11am 2/25/17** New Record high temperatures for Feb. 24: Harrisburg 2/24: 76. Previous 75 in 1985; all-time Feb record is 78F. Williamsport 2/24: 76. Previous 71 in 1985; New record high temperature for the month of February. Altoona 2/24: 75. Previous 69 in 1985; New record high temperature for the month of February. Bradford 2/24: 69. Previous 59 in 1961; New record high temperature for the month of February. State College 2/25: 74. New record high temperature for February and meteorological winter (DJF). ----------------------------------------------------------- Warmest February on Record (Avg. Temperature through 2/24) Harrisburg: 2017 rank=1 (40.8) 2. 40.4 in 1998 3. 39.6 in 1976 4. 39.4 in 1954 Williamsport: 2017 rank=1 (37.6) 2. 37.0 in 1998 3. 36.1 in 1954 4. 35.6 in 2002 Altoona: 2017 rank=1 (39.3) 2. 37.4 in 1976 3. 36.2 in 1998 4. 35.9 in 1990/1954 Bradford: 2017 rank=T1 (32.3) 1. 32.3 in 1998 2. 30.1 in 2002 3. 29.6 in 2012 4. 29.5 in 1990/1976 -------------------------------------------------------------
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Ceru AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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