Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 291125
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
725 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
A weak cold front will sag slowly southeast across the region
early today. High pressure will bring another period of warmer
than normal and mainly dry weather for today into Wednesday. A
cold front will move across the commonwealth Wednesday followed by
a refreshingly cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday through
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc cold front will be bisecting the state from NE to SW during
the mid to late morning hours...before drifting into southeastern
Pennsylvania and northern VA this afternoon.
Nothing more than a few very brief showers/sprinkles were noted
along the frontal boundary at this time.
Mid and high clouds are dissolving/lifting off to the NE in
association with deeper uvvel beneath the departing R.E. region of
a 90kt 300 mb jet.
Areas of fog and low stratus were forming across mainly the
Laurel Highlands (thanks to nearly calm air and peeling away of
the mid/high clouds). a light NW breeze and more multi-layered
cloud cover was limiting the extent of fog across the nrn mtns.
Low temps in the next hour or two will range from the lower 60s
across the Laurels...to the mid and upper 60s elsewhere.
The weak cold front will stall along or just south of the Mason/Dixon
Line this afternoon providing the low level convergence to help
focus what will be isolated to scattered convection during the
afternoon over southern PA.
After the mid to late morning high clouds shift east and dissipate
overhead, a low PWAT air mass working in behind the front should
result in abundant sunshine over much of the region for the midday
and afternoon hours today. Even across the south, expect
decreasing cu by late aftn, as the front clears the area and drier
High temps this afternoon will vary from near 80 across the NW
Mountains to around 90 in the southern valleys.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region tonight...before becoming
centered right overhead Tuesday afternoon. Mainly clear skies and
very low PWAT air for late August (of 0.5 to 0.75 of an inch) will
settle into the state from the NW tonight.
Mins early Tuesday will range from the chilly upper 40s
throughout the perennial cold mountain valleys up north...to the
50s across much of Central PA, with mid 60s in the Lower Susq
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from
a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to
a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result,
above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the
Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front
pushing SE across the area Wednesday afternoon/early Wed night,
with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms.
This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next
week and into Saturday. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s
Thursday into the weekend over the northern and western higher
terrain, with low to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough
amplifies from central Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont.
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will move into the airspace through the day with
winds 5-10kt from 330-360. Early morning fog/low clouds will give
way to widespread VFR flying. Patchy BR/FG possible late tonight
into early Tuesday morning. Added VCFG to KBFD/KIPT after 06-09z.
Tue...Patchy AM fog, then VFR.
Wed...Sct PM TS impacts possible.
Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.
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