Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291839 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 239 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showery conditions will prevail through tonight...with additional moderate to locally heavy rainfall possible over the higher elevations of the southern tier of central Pennsylvania through early Friday. Only minor flooding impacts are likely across the southern portions of central PA. Unsettled weather with occasional lighter rain showers will persist into the weekend with a gradual drying trend by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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2.5 to 3.5 inch amounts feel across southern tier overnight through midday...with higher amounts likely on the east facing slopes occurred across the southern tier. Flooding threat remains...albeit low...with upslope areas susceptible to any persistent upslope or training convective showers over the next 18 hours which could add another 1 to as much as 2 inches in some spots. Dry slot opver western PA with high cloud covering eastern brought transition to low topped open cellular activity propagating from southeast to northwest today. Thus a more showery regime took over with times of little or no rainfall and other times with brief moderate to heavy rates accumulating a few tenths of an inch at time. Moderate PW transport along with some elevated instability will maintain a favorable environment for mdt-heavy rain/efficient rainfall processes through this evening, while increasingly diffluent flow aloft supports some training bands in addition to the trend to low topped open cellular character. In fact...training bands have organized over nrn VA/MD at mid afternoon and are moving into the Laurels and South Central Mountains...as anticipated earlier. Still expecting storm totals of 2-4" over the remaining flood watch area with locally 5"+ possible aloing the east-facing slopes and highest terrain. Very dry antecedent conditions resulting in 3-6hr FFG values of 4+ inches along with below normal stream flows should help to mitigate flooding to some extent, however if the higher end amounts are realized flooding impacts/runoff issues could become more serious.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... The upper low continues to double back to MI on Friday before slowly tracking eastward into the Lower Great Lakes over the weekend. Strong E-SE LLJ and above normal PW along with associated forcing on east/southeast side of upper low favors scattered to numerous lighter rain showers through the period. The mid range models are keying in on a mid level short wave trough that could possibly increase rainfall rates and amounts through Central PA as it is coupled with the LLJ and the PWATS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The trend for early next week is toward dry weather as the stubborn upper low is finally is kicked to the northeast by upstream amplifying trough over the Nation`s mid section. High pressure should regain control of the large scale pattern. FWIW the 29/00z GFS is much faster vs. the ECMWF with the projected path of TC Matthew, with the system nearing the NC coast by Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low cigs and shra persist across PA through Friday. Expect predominantly IFR cigs through tonight at the higher terrain airfields, including KBFD, KUNV, KAOO and KJST. At the lower elevation airfields, while mvfr with sporadic ifr expected farther north. Outlook... Fri-Sat...Low cigs/showers likely, mainly w mtns. Sun...AM low cigs possible. Mon...Showers/cig reductions possible at KBFD. Tue...Fair.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for PAZ025-026-033>036-064- 065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Ceru/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...DeVoir/Fitzgerald

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