Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210338 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1038 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATL LOOP SHOWING REMNANTS OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SINGLE BAND MOVING INTO THE NW MTNS AT 0330Z. RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN 03Z-06Z FROM REMNANTS OF THIS SINGLE BAND...THEN VEERING BLYR FLOW TO THE WNW WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER MULTIPLE BANDED LE SNOW FROM CROSS LAKE FLOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST BLEND OF HIGHER RES MDL QPF...COMBINED WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS NR 20 TO 1...SHOULD PRODUCE LOCAL AMTS OF ARND 6 INCHES ACROSS NW WARREN CO...WHILE MOST OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS GET ADVISORY TYPE AMTS. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES...EXPECT ONLY SCT -SHSN DUE TO LACK OF LAKE MOISTURE. ANY ACCUMS IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO THE L20S WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. LIKEWISE...OROGRAPHIC-INDUCED STRATOCU AND FLURRIES OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. FURTHER EAST...DRYING/DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MSUNNY SKIES THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ENSEMBLE MEAN 925 TEMPS OF ARND 8C IMPLY HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M20S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L30S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 10-20KT OVERNIGHT. ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AS OF EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY PERSISTS OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS...AS ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW BANDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS. TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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