Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250005 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U.S. bringing a noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening into the first part of the holiday weekend. Slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Light winds and clear skies should provide for another cool overnight with lows mainly in the 50s and upper 40s in cooler spots of the western mountains. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday should be a near picture perfect summer day. Mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures mainly in the upper 70s to mid-80s. It will not be as cool overnight Wednesday into Thursday but should still be comfortable. But the humid will be beginning it`s steady climb. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended guidance continues to show a strong ridge over the mid Atlantic and the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This will bring the arrival of the first extended period of summer- like temperatures and humidity. By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft. Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the weekend. However the strong ridge should provide enough subsidence to keep any convection at bay Thursday and Friday. The GFS is very aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. However given the southerly flow of moisture, the warmer temperatures and the possibility of a mid level trough advecting through, Saturday should have a decent chance for some afternoon convection. The trend is for the ridge to break down late in the weekend and for cooler air to move into the region early next week. This could bring temperatures to slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure aloft and at the surface building into the region tonight into wednesday will bring minimal clouds and primarily VFR conditions - though some patchy MVFR fog is poss in some valleys of the southeast toward sunrise. NW winds around 10 mph will diminish quickly this eve...and pick back up to 7-10 mph from the west on Wed. Primarily VFR conditions will continue through the next several days...with brief impacts from mainly sct afternoon thunderstorms from Thu into the weekend. OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx expected. Thu-Sun...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Synopsis...Dangelo/La Corte Near Term...Grumm/La Corte Short Term...Grumm Long Term...Ceru Aviation...RXR

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