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FXUS61 KCTP 161539
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1139 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery and cool weather is in store today. Temperatures will
rebound to near normal on Tuesday, then continue to gradually
rise to well above normal right into this upcoming weekend, as a
large area of high pressure builds in. This will lead to an
extended period of dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Thick/layered post frontal clouds across our far SE zones will
be sliding out of that area over the next 2-3 hours, followed by
gradually increasing sunshine for the afternoon hours.

Elsewhere across Central and NW PA, a fairly sharp but compact
upper trough will slide SE from Lake Erie and the southern
Ontario Peninsula. This feature will help to maintain a mix of
sun and moderate cu. Even a few brief showers or sprinkles are
possible across primarily the Laurel Highlands, where the best
fetch/dual lake flow will occur within the otherwise shallow and
highly sheared colder than normal airmass (with strongly
anticyclonic flow from high pressure ridging in from the SW).

Max temps will be anyway from 15 to 25F lower than Sunday`s. A
rather tight llvl pressure gradient will generate NW wind
averaging 12-17mph, with gusts into the 20s and perhaps lower
30s - esp in the SE and NE mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Skies will clear out as the high builds in tonight. The winds
will remain up above 5kts for the first half of the night. The
wind will become lighter through the night. So, the forecast
problem tonight is frost/freeze. Dewpoints do drop into the 20s
in spots, but the wind keeps up long enough that I am not
confident enough to post a frost advy - and freezing temps are
not likely over places which are still in the growing season.
Perhaps SEG/THV and similar micro-climates could touch 32F, but
most will not. For now, just mentioning areas of frost.


Tuesday will hold lots of sunshine, so the frost will melt off
quickly. The 8H temps may already be rising slightly before
sunrise, so a temp warm-up is in store. Sun and light WSW wind
will put us back into the normal range of maxes around 55-60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the mid to late week period, heights gradually rise with a
multi-model consensus indicating a string of dry and
increasingly warm days and mainly clear/cool nights. We could
have a period true Indian Summer weather with high temps in the
in the low to mid 70s from mid week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the wake of last nights cold front passage, low level
moisture ascending the western mountains should produce
predominantly MVFR cigs at KBFD and KJST through late this
morning. Elsewhere, the drying effect of a downsloping
northwest flow should result in predominantly VFR conditions.

High pressure will build into the region today, bringing
clearing skies and gusty northwest winds. Model soundings
indicate lingering MVFR cigs at KBFD/KJST will give way VFR
conditions by around 16Z.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Patchy AM fog possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Ceru
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner