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174
FXUS61 KCTP 120226
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1026 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Continued seasonably warm and humid with near to above normal
  temperatures into mid July
* Daily doses of drenching thunderstorm downpours capable of
  producing isolated wind damage
* Episodes of rain continue this weekend into early next week
  with the strongest wet signals on Sun-Mon
* Driest, but not entirely dry, timeframe may be Tues-Wed

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cu popped off the ridges and continues to be the generation
point for most/all of the SHRA thus far. As more SHRA and their
boundaries interact with each other, these boundaries will be
additions to the purely terrain-driven convection we have early
this aftn.

The mixed-layer CAPE is increasing per latest mesoscale analysis
trends. So, the SHRA should turn into TSRA as we warm even just
a couple of degs F this aftn. Highest PoPs are placed in the
central mtns for the aftn and early evening as the current mass
of SHRA and associated meager forcing slides eastward a little.
Evening time should bring stabilization, but not sudden. Some
SHRA/TSRA may linger close to midnight. The bigger threat with
any of the tallest TSRA will be heavy rain out of something
slow-moving/drifting. But, an isold gust into the 50s is not
totally out of the question.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
More muggy conditions are in store tonight. As the SHRA/TSRA go
away, some fog is expected to form, mainly in the valleys. With
fog being so random this morning, we can`t argue against
including it for any/all of the CWA. Min temps will generally
match the morning dewpoints: M60s-L70s. Expect the fog to burn
off by 13Z. That should result in another day with weak forcing
and mainly pulse SHRA/TSRA in the aftn and evening. They should,
like Friday`s convection, be terrain-induced at first and drift
away as they mature into the meager shear profile (<20kts).
The risk for severe gusts/hail remains low (general thunder
from SPC), and the risk for flooding may be only a little
higher but still only in the marginal category factoring in the
lower shear (vs Fri) and slower cell movement, and the slightly
lower PWAT values (1.5" vs 1.75" Fri).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled pattern continues through the weekend and into the
beginning stages of next week with highest signal for
precipitation on Sunday with a cold frontal passage across the
region. Ample instability, shear, and moisture will bring about
some potential for severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the
front; however, model timing differences do continue into this
forecast cycle, which could limit severe potential. Heavy
rainfall is also expected with these storms, with PWATs
approaching 2.00" during the afternoon/evening hours. Best
moisture at this point seems focused over eastern Pennsylvania,
where highest month-to-date rainfall totals have been observed;
however, a couple of days (relatively) dry conditions could
allow for some relief before the next batch of heavy rainfall.

Confidence continues to increase in much of central Pennsylvania
getting an extended break in the rainy summer pattern next
Tuesday and Wednesday. This "dry" signal is reflected in the
latest medium range models and ensemble guidance which shows sfc
high pressure/upper level ridge moving into the area in the
wake of the aforementioned frontal system. There does remain
some uncertainty on eastern extent of the frontal system with
some potential for the front to get hung up across southeastern
Pennsylvania throughout this period, which will keep SChc PoPs
in this timeframe.

Unsettled pattern returns for all of central Pennsylvania with
increasing humidity and heat allowing for a return to the
typical summer-time pattern that has been observed recently.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Lingering showers have all but dissipated across central PA as
of 02z. As the clouds dissipate and/or peal away from the area,
fog formation is visibile on the nighttime microphysics imagery
across the northern valleys...espeially in areas that received
earlier rainfall.

Expect additional fog formation overnight with diminishing winds
and plentiful low-level moisture. A marine layer and associated
low clouds were also observed drifting westward towards
southeastern PA at 02z, and will have to monitor this trend
through the overnight hours as this could impact the Lower Susq
Valley (MDT/LNS).

With fog already forming in the northern valleys, and seeing
BFD`s vsby dip to 6SM, have hit the BFD TAF a bit harder with
fog than the LAMP model guidance. A possible fly in the ointment
for additional fog formation across NW PA could be cloud debris
drifting into the area from convection north of Lake Erie. This
will bare watching overnight as well.

Any fog/low clouds should dissipate Saturday morning, giving
way to at least partial sunshine. Scattered showers/storms could
once again develop in the warm, muggy airmass on Saturday. This
has not been noted in the TAFs yet, so mentioning the
possibility here in the AFD.

Outlook...

Sun...Numerous SHRA/TSRA developing ahead of a CFRONT.

Sun night-Mon...CFROPA; Widespread SHRA/TSRA, mainly southeast.

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Isold PM TSRA poss, mainly south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Bauco
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Bauco
LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB
AVIATION...Evanego