-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 261709
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1209 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM
FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW
SHOWERS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME
RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND SE OF I-81/ HAS FURTHER WEAKENED AND
IS SHIFTING NE OF THE REGION THIS MIDDAY HOUR.

CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST OCNL
FLURRIES FALLING IN MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT NE SFC WIND THIS AFTN
WILL ACCOMPANY MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...LOW-MID 20S IN CENTRAL PENN...AND UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30F IN THE SOUTH.

INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP...AND DRIFT OVER THE WRN MTNS
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SPARKING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE RT 219 CORRIDOR AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SOME
SLICK SPOTS WILL BE DEVELOPING ON UNTREATED ROADS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAUREL. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A COATING TO ONE INCH OF ACCUM LIKELY /ESP
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN
ALOFT AND LLVL WINDS BACK FROM THE NE TO NW ENHANCING THE LLVL
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH OR NW BY
MORNING...CREATING AN INCREASING UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW IN THE WEST.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE N CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WILL
MAINTAIN A 4-8KT NERLY SFC WIND ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO AREAS OF IFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM
LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT