Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020221 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1021 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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RADAR HAS BECOME QUIET WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND DIMINISHING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO SCATTERED LEADING TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMFORTABLE SLEEPING WEATHER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SLICING RIGHT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TO AROUND 60F IN THE SE ZONES. TEMPS TO GET BACK TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NW AND PERHAPS ADD A DEG F OR TWO TO SATURDAY/S MAXES ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE UPPER GLAKES IN THE OTHERWISE...DRY NW FLOW WILL HELP TO FUNNEL SOME LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT AND SPARK ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATER SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE NW ZONES...AND ELSEWHERE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING OF THE CFRONT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. MODERATELY STG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WEST TO WSW...BUT MARGINAL CAPE...EQUATES TO SPC/S OUTLOOK FOR MARGINAL SVR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HRS MONDAY. MODEL BLENDED TEMPS SUGGEST THAT HIGHS MONDAY COULD EDGE INTO THE L90S IN THE LOWER SUSQ PRIOR TO THE CFROPA...WHILE MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN LONG TERM PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS LINE SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS UP COMING WEEK WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD SPARK ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 02/00Z...VERY ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PRTN OF THE AIRSPACE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 03Z. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF PA...THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG SHOULD BE LOW GIVEN MODIFIED CP AIR AND LGT WINDS. HOWEVER SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE. OVERALL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE ON MONDAY WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX. MON-MON NGT...VFR WITH BRIEF IFR VIS IN SCT-NMRS TSTMS. TUE-THU...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR VIS IN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. CONFIDENCE LOW. && .CLIMATE... THE AVG. TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2015 AT HARRISBURG WAS 76.1 DEGREES OR +0.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL. THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL WAS 2.69 INCHES OR -1.92 INCHES BELOW THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL. NO DAILY RECORDS WERE SET DURING THE MONTH. THE AVG. TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2015 AT WILLIAMSPORT WAS 72.9 DEGREES OR +0.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL. THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL WAS 3.93 INCHES OR -0.41 INCHES BELOW THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL. NO DAILY RECORDS WERE SET DURING THE MONTH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...MARTIN/TYBURSKI AVIATION...STEINBUGL CLIMATE...

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