Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 201932 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 232 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A SECOND HIGH PRESURE CELL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LARGE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STORM AND INCREASING EAST FLOW OFF OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY...WITH QUITE MILD BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON CHRISTMAS EVE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING OVER MUCH OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED SUNSHINE TO THOSE AREAS. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE NORTHWARD EXTENT PUSHING TOWARDS CENTRAL CLEARFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTY...AND IT APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SUNSET. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT...AS 5H WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z SUN. MINS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... DEEP LAYER DRYING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEPARTING 5H WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SUNSHINE TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL PA ON MONDAY. THE STUBBORN STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR MORE THAN A WEEK WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MIX OUT...BUT TRANSITORY SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAY STILL MAKE THIS A SLOW PROCESS OVER THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THAT...SOME AREAS COULD PERHAPS SEE A FLURRY IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS SUNDAY BEFORE THE WAVE QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD. WENT CLOSE TO CONSALL GUIDANCE AGAIN WITH MAXES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... INCREASINGLY MOIST SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK IN GRADIENT BTWN RETREATING HIGH OVR NEW ENG AND WEAK LOW RIDING UP THE E COAST. THE INFLUX OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WILL LIKELY YIELD DAMP AND DRIZZLY WX MON NITE THROUGH TUESDAY. MDLS HINT AT PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LOW LVL COLD AIR FOR AN INITIAL PERIOD OF -FZRA/FZDZ OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS MON NITE. MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON TIMING/TRACK OF DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW DURING MID WEEK...ALL OF WHICH POINTS TOWARD A MILD AND RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. BLEND OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ARND 1 INCH OF RAIN...FALLING MOSTLY WITH PASSAGE OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WEDNESDAY. SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR SHOULD PRECEDE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...PUSHING READINGS INTO THE 50S OVR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NWD INTO SRN CANADA...COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION ON BLUSTERY WEST WINDS. A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVR THE W MTNS...PERHAPS BRINGING A WHITE XMAS TO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WED NITE/THURSDAY. DEEPENING SFC LOWS TRACKING THRU THE E GRT LKS TYPICALLY BRING CENTRAL PA SOME OF OUR STRONGEST WINDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA ON CHRISTMAS. THE CHILLIER AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...WITH 00Z ECENS AND GEFS SHOWING THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTING OUT BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHALLOW STRATOCU DECK REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS. LOWER CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH IMPROVING CIGS CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST. CIG RESTRICTIONS IN EXPANDING STRATOCU DECK LIKELY RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS EXPANSIVE AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A THICKENING MID-LVL DECK AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. OUTLOOK... SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...LOW CIGS WITH LGT RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE. BECOMING BREEZY. TUE...LOW CIGS WITH RAIN LIKELY. BREEZY. WED...MILD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...LEADING TO MVFR TO IFR. ALSO...WINDY WITH LLWS. THU...WINDY AND COLDER WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/EVANEGO AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR

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