Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 161539 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1139 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery and cool weather is in store today. Temperatures will rebound to near normal on Tuesday, then continue to gradually rise to well above normal right into this upcoming weekend, as a large area of high pressure builds in. This will lead to an extended period of dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Thick/layered post frontal clouds across our far SE zones will be sliding out of that area over the next 2-3 hours, followed by gradually increasing sunshine for the afternoon hours. Elsewhere across Central and NW PA, a fairly sharp but compact upper trough will slide SE from Lake Erie and the southern Ontario Peninsula. This feature will help to maintain a mix of sun and moderate cu. Even a few brief showers or sprinkles are possible across primarily the Laurel Highlands, where the best fetch/dual lake flow will occur within the otherwise shallow and highly sheared colder than normal airmass (with strongly anticyclonic flow from high pressure ridging in from the SW). Max temps will be anyway from 15 to 25F lower than Sunday`s. A rather tight llvl pressure gradient will generate NW wind averaging 12-17mph, with gusts into the 20s and perhaps lower 30s - esp in the SE and NE mtns. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Skies will clear out as the high builds in tonight. The winds will remain up above 5kts for the first half of the night. The wind will become lighter through the night. So, the forecast problem tonight is frost/freeze. Dewpoints do drop into the 20s in spots, but the wind keeps up long enough that I am not confident enough to post a frost advy - and freezing temps are not likely over places which are still in the growing season. Perhaps SEG/THV and similar micro-climates could touch 32F, but most will not. For now, just mentioning areas of frost. Tuesday will hold lots of sunshine, so the frost will melt off quickly. The 8H temps may already be rising slightly before sunrise, so a temp warm-up is in store. Sun and light WSW wind will put us back into the normal range of maxes around 55-60F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... For the mid to late week period, heights gradually rise with a multi-model consensus indicating a string of dry and increasingly warm days and mainly clear/cool nights. We could have a period true Indian Summer weather with high temps in the in the low to mid 70s from mid week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... In the wake of last nights cold front passage, low level moisture ascending the western mountains should produce predominantly MVFR cigs at KBFD and KJST through late this morning. Elsewhere, the drying effect of a downsloping northwest flow should result in predominantly VFR conditions. High pressure will build into the region today, bringing clearing skies and gusty northwest winds. Model soundings indicate lingering MVFR cigs at KBFD/KJST will give way VFR conditions by around 16Z. Outlook... Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible. Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri...Patchy AM fog possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Lambert SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Ceru AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner

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