Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261709 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1209 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY BRINGING PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND SE OF I-81/ HAS FURTHER WEAKENED AND IS SHIFTING NE OF THE REGION THIS MIDDAY HOUR. CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST OCNL FLURRIES FALLING IN MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT NE SFC WIND THIS AFTN WILL ACCOMPANY MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...LOW-MID 20S IN CENTRAL PENN...AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F IN THE SOUTH. INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP...AND DRIFT OVER THE WRN MTNS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SPARKING AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RT 219 CORRIDOR AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE DEVELOPING ON UNTREATED ROADS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A COATING TO ONE INCH OF ACCUM LIKELY /ESP ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN ALOFT AND LLVL WINDS BACK FROM THE NE TO NW ENHANCING THE LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH OR NW BY MORNING...CREATING AN INCREASING UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW IN THE WEST. THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO DEGREE H850 LINE.. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE N CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WILL MAINTAIN A 4-8KT NERLY SFC WIND ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO AREAS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
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&& .CLIMATE... THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7. THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934. SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...TYBURSKI AVIATION...LAMBERT CLIMATE...LAMBERT

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