Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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562 FXUS61 KCTP 251829 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 229 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania late today and tonight. High pressure will return for mid week with continued warm temperatures. Temperatures may trend back to near or slightly below normal over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8PM. A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning are also in in effect for the sern zones today. A cold front moving over Lake Erie will drop SE across the area this evening and overnight. A hot, humid and very unstable airmass is place with RAP CAPEs in excess of 3000j being observed. We are still very warm aloft so activity has been slow to attain vertical depth. Lagging upper trough and sfc cold front will combine with the deep tropical moisture to bring the threat of some training storms with highly localized very heavy rainfall of 2 inches or more per hour. Headwater Flash Flood Guidance values are extremely high and 4 inches plus for the 1-3 hour period, so at this point there isn`t a big concern for flash flooding. However, PWATs are just about as high as they get around this part of the country, so the biggest threat will likely be urban and small stream flooding. HRRR timing suggests the showers/storms taper off and move south fairly early this evening with improving skies in the wake of the front. Areas that see rain ahead of the front and clearing skies behind the front will have a good chance for some late night fog. Low temps will vary from the l60s across the north...to the lower 70s across the SE zones. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... Tuesday looks very warm to hot but with much cooler dewpoints as compared to today. Highs will range from the low/mid 80s over the NW to the low/mid 90s over the SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Big story in the extended fcst is the likelihood for modest cooling by Tue/Wed behind the weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a generally zonal flow. Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts areawide as another cool front progged to move through. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Developing thunderstorms are bringing localized restrictions to terminals in the northwest. Thunderstorms will break out in the hot humid air over all of our CWA this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could cause damaging wind gusts and large hail, especially over the northern portion of the flying area. Dewpoints will not dip all that much tonight, so areas of fog look like a good bet after the thunderstorms move east of the region. For now will forecast 3-5 miles but would not be surprised to see local IFR conditions develop. The best chance for dense fog will be at terminals that see rain today and clearing skies tonight. Air does get slightly drier for the middle of the week. It should not be cold enough at night to make much if any fog in the valleys of the north. The airfields will likely stay VFR into Thursday. OUTLOOK... TUE-WED...VFR. THU-FRI...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Record high for Harrisburg today is 99 degrees set in 1940. Record high for Williamsport is 100 set in 1934. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ027-028-035- 036-049>053-058. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ056- 057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte CLIMATE...

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