-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 200009
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
809 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU