Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 030049 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 849 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EVENING RADAR LOOP SHOWS A SHRINKING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA ASSOC WITH FGEN FORCING WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC UPPER LVL JET WILL LIFT NE THRU NEW ENG LATER THIS EVENING...CAUSING LINGERING RAIN TO DIMINISH OVR THE S TIER COUNTIES. HAVE ZEROED OUT THE POPS FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...WHERE DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE S TIER...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS DESPITE WANING LG SCALE FORCING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT...RANGING FROM THE CHILLY LOWER 40S ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHERE SKIES WILL BE PTCLDY...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE OVERCAST SOUTHERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS CENTERED OVER S QUEBEC SHOULD PROVIDE THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA A PARTLY SUNNY AND MILDER DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE S TIER COUNTIES WITH OVERCAST/COOL CONDS. LACK OF LG SCALE FORCING INDICATED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS. THUS...EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY -DZ ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE PT-MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS STILL WELL BLW SEASONAL NORMS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVER THE SE...AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR CIGS...WITH VFR IN THE NW MTNS. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT NE/E WINDS CONTINUE. SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO NRN PA...AND BRADFORD WILL CONTINUE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR POSS SOME LIGHT FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...CLOUD CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH AREA OF IFR CIGS COVERING SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE REDUCED TO 3-5SM. SOME IMPROVEMENT MID MORNING WED...AS CIGS RISE THROUGH MVFR BACK TO VFR IN MOST LOCALES. BUT A DEVELOPING S-SE MARITIME FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF QUITE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991, 1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR CLIMATE...

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