Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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278 FXUS61 KCTP 242343 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 743 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will push north of the region Saturday before sagging south ward across central Pennsylvania Saturday night and Sunday. Very mild conditions are expected tonight and Sunday as we enjoy the warm sector south of the frontal boundary. However...increasing clouds and southeast flow are expected on Sunday as the boundary sags southward as a backdoor cold front...bringing cooler conditions and eventually some patchy drizzle or light rain. Unsettled conditions will last from late Sunday through Tuesday as a series of disturbances interact with the front. No heavy rain is expected during this timeframe however. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... The surface warm front is bisecting the state this evening from north to south with 22Z readings ranging from 73F at Bedford, to 47F at Laporte. Best WAA remain along and north of 850mb baroclinic zone north of Pa, so little chance of any precip this evening. Near term models indicate the warm front will stall out over the central part of the state tonight, so expecting the coolest overnight readings in the east. Lows into Saturday should range from the 40s east, to around 50F over the western and central mountains. There will be areas of low clouds and drizzle in the vicinity of the NY border adjacent to the stalling sfc boundary. Areas farther south stand to see the least cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Saturday will be the best of the weekend days as the quasi stationary front remains north of or along the PA/NY border. Very mild temperatures are expected again with maxes ranging from the mid 50s north where more in the way of clouds and patchy drizzle or light showers are expected...to the upper 60s south where a good deal of sunshine is expected. There could be some isolated to scattered afternoon showers in the increasingly warm and unstable air central and south...but most will stay dry. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Frontal boundary sags back into the region from the north (pushed by a high pressure area sliding SE across S Ontario) on Sunday as a low approaches from the Ohio Valley. This will sag cooler and more moist air into the region. Light showers/drizzle possible through much of the day, but main precip event impacts central PA Sun night into early Mon as low moves through. QPF looks to be around 0.50 inch. Temps Sunday will be noticably cooler behind the backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely through early next week, as GEFS indicates PA remains beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs. The chance of showers again spikes with passage of next shortwave Tuesday into Wednesday and another one to start the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Just some high clouds as of early evening. Expect VFR conditions to prevail early on tonight. MVFR and IFR conditions later tonight into Saturday, as a cold front over southern Canada sags southward later tonight into Saturday. Not looking at a lot of rain and drizzle away from northern PA early on. However, lower conditions to slowly work southward into Saturday afternoon and evening. Looking at mild, but at times, wet weather for the later part of the weekend, into early next week. Outlook... Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain. Wed...MFFR to VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Grumm/DeVoir/Lambert LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Martin

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