Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020357 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1157 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER PA AT THIS HOUR...BUT WEAK UPSTREAM MCS OVER OHIO AND REMNANTS OVER WV/MD PROMISE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND DANK...WITH AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE DENSE IN THE HIGHER RIDGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE DAY TIME ON MONDAY WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME MEAGER HEATING HAPPENS. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN JUST AS WE ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY WARM MAX TEMPS COULD BUST AS WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EXPECTED. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS MORE- DRY THAN THE MORNING. THE ONLY CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND WAY FAR IN THE SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN THE AFTN IN THE SOUTH TO MAKE ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT. AHEAD OF THAT THOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID OR LATE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA AND ESP THE SUSQ VALLEY. TOTAL QPF IN THE HARRISBURG AREA LOOKS TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING N AND W. THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF THYE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE. UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME. SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE AT KJST...WHERE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN VFR CONDS AT 03Z. LATEST HRRR AND SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO RESULT IN LOW CIGS AFTER 06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOW CIGS NOT AS HIGH AS OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A BATCH OF SHRA AND EVEN A POSS TSRA WILL LIKELY LIFT THRU THE REGION BTWN 08Z-13Z ASSOC WITH AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRES. IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY...AS LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THRU THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 12Z AT KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS. OUTLOOK... TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE. WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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