Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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729 FXUS61 KCTP 242128 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 528 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move over and east of the region today, paving the way for a frontal system that will approach overnight and Monday. High pressure will return for mid week. It will remain warm throughout the period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... MCV and assoc convection moving through sw Pa is the main concern early this evening. Enhanced westerly flow on s flank of this feature is supporting near severe radar velocity signatures across western Pa at 2040Z and linear extrapolation brings the threat into the Laurel Highlands arnd 22Z. Will paint the highest pops over Laurels early this evening, tapering off to the east in anticipation of the convection drying up as it moves east. The overnight will become muggy with the threat for additional sct showers and thunderstorms, but the various models are in wide disagreement on where and when the highest threat will be. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Monday looks hazy hot and humid with dewpoints well up in the 60s and possibly even lower 70s over the southeast where the combination of heat and humidity warrants a heat advisory for the warmest hours of the afternoon. A weak cold front will provide enhanced convergence in an increasingly unstable airmass leading to the threat for some strong storms, especially in the afternoon when the SREF and GEFS pump CAPEs up to between 1500-2000J with a not unimpressive LLJ sliding into the forecast area. Any rain Monday will be very welcome, but probably not enough to put a dent in the widespread dry conditions we have been experiencing for the last several weeks. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus. Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress convection. Some modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a generally zonal flow. Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts areawide as another cool front progged to move through. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Adjusted thunderstorm fcst for JST and AOO. While convective complex will likely weaken some, circulation center will likely produce some gusty winds and brief heavy rain with thunder. Earlier discussion below. Widespread VFR will continue into the overnight. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening into the overnight will bring the chance for localized restrictions developing at terminals that become affected by the precipitation. A cold front/weak boundary will across the Great Lakes tonight and through PA on Monday. This will bring additional showers and thunderstorms into Monday evening, and perhaps into very early Tues morning. Some of the storms Monday afternoon and evening could be locally severe. High pressure returns for mid-week. OUTLOOK... TUE-WED...AM fog poss. Otherwise VFR. THU-FRI...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high in both IPT and MDT for today is 96F. Current high temp forecast for both locations is 94F. Considering the maxes of the past few days, the very dry soil and likely lack of thick high clouds today we could easily tie or nudge those records later this afternoon. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 3 PM to 8 PM EDT Monday for PAZ027-028-035- 036-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte/Martin CLIMATE...La Corte/Martin

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