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000
FXUS61 KCTP 182320
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
720 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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SFC FRONT NOW BISECTS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND IT. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SE THRU THE EVENING/NIGHT. BUT IT HAS NO
MOISTURE ALONG/BEHIND IT SOUTH OF KBUF. STILL...WILL HOLD ONTO
SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
CURRENT CROP OF MID CLOUDS IN THE NW SLIDES TO THE EAST. ENOUGH
UPPER FORCING MAY JOIN UP JUST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU
POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES TO MAKE A SHOWER PER RUC/NAM FCSTS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TWEAKED THE WINDS AND CURRENT MID LEVEL
BROKEN CEILING. AS THE SUN SETS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI