Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 242343
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
743 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
A warm front will push north of the region Saturday before
sagging south ward across central Pennsylvania Saturday night
and Sunday. Very mild conditions are expected tonight and Sunday
as we enjoy the warm sector south of the frontal boundary.
However...increasing clouds and southeast flow are expected on
Sunday as the boundary sags southward as a backdoor cold
front...bringing cooler conditions and eventually some patchy
drizzle or light rain. Unsettled conditions will last from late
Sunday through Tuesday as a series of disturbances interact with
the front. No heavy rain is expected during this timeframe
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The surface warm front is bisecting the state this evening from
north to south with 22Z readings ranging from 73F at Bedford,
to 47F at Laporte. Best WAA remain along and north of 850mb
baroclinic zone north of Pa, so little chance of any precip this
Near term models indicate the warm front will stall out over the
central part of the state tonight, so expecting the coolest
overnight readings in the east. Lows into Saturday should range
from the 40s east, to around 50F over the western and central
mountains. There will be areas of low clouds and drizzle in the
vicinity of the NY border adjacent to the stalling sfc
boundary. Areas farther south stand to see the least cloud
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Saturday will be the best of the weekend days as the quasi
stationary front remains north of or along the PA/NY border.
Very mild temperatures are expected again with maxes ranging
from the mid 50s north where more in the way of clouds and
patchy drizzle or light showers are expected...to the upper 60s
south where a good deal of sunshine is expected. There could be
some isolated to scattered afternoon showers in the increasingly
warm and unstable air central and south...but most will stay
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Frontal boundary sags back into the region from the north
(pushed by a high pressure area sliding SE across S Ontario) on
Sunday as a low approaches from the Ohio Valley. This will sag
cooler and more moist air into the region. Light showers/drizzle
possible through much of the day, but main precip event impacts
central PA Sun night into early Mon as low moves through. QPF
looks to be around 0.50 inch.
Temps Sunday will be noticably cooler behind the backdoor cold
front and a likelihood of rain. However, above average
temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely through
early next week, as GEFS indicates PA remains beneath a mean
upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs.
The chance of showers again spikes with passage of next
shortwave Tuesday into Wednesday and another one to start the
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Just some high clouds as of early evening. Expect VFR
conditions to prevail early on tonight. MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Saturday, as a cold front
over southern Canada sags southward later tonight into
Saturday. Not looking at a lot of rain and drizzle away
from northern PA early on. However, lower conditions to
slowly work southward into Saturday afternoon and evening.
Looking at mild, but at times, wet weather for the later
part of the weekend, into early next week.
Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain.
Wed...MFFR to VFR.