Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281025 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 525 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY... FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT...PRECEDED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM MAY BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. MESO OB SITES SHOW NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WELL BELOW ZERO /AT -6 TO -11F/ WITH NEARLY CALM AIR...WHILE THE RIDGE TOPS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN ARE SEEING TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. ELSEWHERE...READINGS RANGED FROM ABOUT 10-17F WITH A 5-10 KT WEST TO NW WIND. A VERY LIGHT BREEZE WILL LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS LOW AS -14 TO -16F. HOWEVER...SINCE THE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO JUST 2 KFT AGL WILL LEAD TO A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 8-13KT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. SOUTH-SSERLY SFC FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY STG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY POTENT CLIPPER HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING TO AN ALTO-NIMBOSTRATUS DECK EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST. ANY LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EXTREME NW...AND EVEN THERE IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NON- ACCUMULATING FLURRIES. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD. FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN. OUTLOOK... THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW. SAT...VFR. SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...GARTNER

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