Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 260624
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
124 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
A ridge of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will build
east across Pennsylvania Sunday, then off the east coast early
next week. Low pressure will track north of the area during the
middle of the week, with a trailing cold front pushing through
Pennsylvania late Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Air mass change across the CWA overnight with blustery and much
colder conditions. Radar shows scattered lake effect snow
showers across the Alleghenies. Low inversion heights and warm
ground will result in only very light accums of less than an
inch across the Allegheny Plateau. Model soundings showing a
well mixed boundary layer up to 850mb overnight, supporting
gusts around 25kts. Temps will continue to fall under CAA
overnight, bottoming out in the low 20s across the high terrain
of the Alleghenies, to the low 30s across the LSV.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure ridge will build into the region Sunday, causing
winds to subside and any lingering snow showers/flurries to end
by midday over the western mountains. Although the day should
start cloudy across the western/northern mountains, expect stratocu
to begin breaking up (even across the nw mountains) by late in
the day based on model RH fields. Temperatures will return to
near or slightly below average for late February - but it will
feel much colder given the recent run of magnificent spring-like
High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night
with clouds increase ahead of shortwave tracking through the Mid
MS/OH Valley. Model blend keeps pcpn well to the SW of the area
through daybreak Monday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak shortwave brings chance for light precip on Monday, though
lower levels look fairly dry as surface high exits eastward.
Elongated low developing over the central U.S. on Tue will edge
a warm frontal boundary toward the region, bringing chance for
light precipitation and ushering in another round of warmer
than normal temperatures (though not as high as the past few
days). By Wed, upper wave catches up to the low, bringing a more
significant rainfall, followed by a cold frontal passage.
Colder and very breezy conditions then in store for late week in
NW flow, along with sct lake effect snow showers in the NW Mtns.
Cooler air lingers into the weekend as upper flow remains from
the NW while 1037mb surface high pressure slides through.
Yet another weather system slides through the Great Lakes this
weekend, with center of low remaining to our north. But shower
chances increase for the NW half.
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gusty winds across the region today. Some snow showers and
flurries across the region until early afternoon, when winds
shift more to the west and southwest. MDT and LNS not likely
to see flurries, but still have some clouds early.
All sites should be VFR by early to mid afternoon, as winds
shift, as noted above.
Some rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday, as winds shift to the
south, and warm advection sets in.
Tue-Wed...Rain showers/Sub-VFR reductions likely.
Thu...Strong FROPA early with gusty winds. Sub-VFR likely west.