Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270014 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 814 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days. A weak front will try to push southeast across the state Sunday night into Monday morning and could be accompanied by scattered showers or thunderstorms, mainly over the north and west. Another period of warmer than normal and dry days will follow for Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Clear skies and a diminishing breeze should promote patchy dense fog late tonight in the favored deep river/stream valleys of the Alleghenies, as the latest SREF and downscaled NAM suggest. Slightly drier air, that has arrived with high pres system, will allow temps to fall quite a bit below those observed this morning, with daybreak temps likely ranging from the mid 50s across the NW Mtns, to the mid and upper 60s across the Lower Susq Valley. Abundant sunshine and temps well above average expected Saturday, as anomalous upper level ridge builds northeast across the Mid Atlantic region. The warm temps aloft should suppress any chance of convection, so have kept POPs near zero. An examination of ensemble 850/925mb temps supports max temps near those of today across southeast Pa and several degrees warmer than today across the western half of the state. Currently painting high temps ranging from the mid 80s across the high terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low 90s across the Susq Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another quiet night Sat night with some mid/high clouds beginning to stream into the NW. A weak cold front will bring the chance for showers or thunderstorms later Sunday - mainly in northern and western sections. Above average temps continue. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to an upper-level trough over the northeast. As a result, above- normal temperatures early next week should gradually transition to near or even slightly below-normal temperatures by the end of next week. A weakening cold front will approach the area later Sunday before washing out overhead Monday into Tuesday. A widespread rainfall is not expected, but the presence of this front will keep PoPs a little bit elevated early in the week with a few showers or thunderstorms possible. A second cold front should push across the area Wednesday or Thursday, with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00Z TAFS sent. Earlier discussion below. Nice summer afternoon outside with VFR conditions. Just a few fair weather CU across the far south. Only minor adjustments for 21Z TAFS. VFR continues into Sat night with some local fog impacts possible early Saturday morning. NW winds around 10 mph will become light by sunset, with light winds continuing through Sat night. Outlook... Sun...Scattered TS northwest 1/2 airspace. Mon-Wed...Primarily VFR. Isolated mainly afternoon TS poss. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...Evanego AVIATION...Martin/RXR

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