Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
193 FXUS61 KCTP 052319 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 719 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SW MTNS LEAVING OUR CWA CLOUDY BUT DRY. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA WITH LOWER PCPN PROBS IN THE EAST. THE MAX PCPN PROBS/HIGHEST POPS WILL FLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND INITIALLY A PUSH OF SOME WARMER AIR ON SAT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN A LOW PROB OVER NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TROUGH EVENTUALLY COMES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN LARGE. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LOCAL FLYING AREA IS VFR AS OF 5PM. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOCIATED MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS WILL BRING A REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS LIKELY...ESP AT NIGHT. SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.