Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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070 FXUS61 KCTP 291409 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1009 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper lvl trough will push across the region tonight and Monday. Tropical moisture lifting northward from the Mid Atlantic region will feed an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Pennsylvania late today and tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper ridge being displaced eastward this morning as upper trof swings towards the western GLAKS from the upper midwest. At the same time, a deep plume of subtropical moisture off of the southeast Atlantic coast is being directed northward between now T.D. Bonnie (downgraded at 8:00 AM this morning) and aforementioned 5H ridge...which models eventually pool from northern Virginia to the Chesapeake Bay and southeast piedmont region by late this afternoon. these two areas will be the primary focii for showers/tstm chances later today and tonight...with isolated/scattered pm convection over the ridges of central PA in between. One limiting factor compared to yesterday may be the increasing high cloud shield to overspread central PA as the day wears on...but far eastern areas will continue to see nearly full sunshine into this afternoon...fueling isold/sct coverage of convection in the mid to late pm. Adjusted pops upward slightly across the Mid Susq River Valley as a result. Guidance continues to suggest the Lower Susq River Valley remains dry until late afternoon early evening...as the tropical moisture surge arrives at that time. After minor adjustments...max temps now range from near 80F Laurel Highlands to the upper 80s to near 90 across the Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Although tropical depression is progged to remain well south of Pa, a plume of tropical moisture lifting up the mid atl coast, combined with approach of mid lvl shortwave from the west, could produce some locally sig rainfall late tonight/early Monday am across eastern Pa. GEFS and oper GFS/EC all indicate the potential of 1+ inches of rain across our se counties. 00Z models indicating a generally dry Memorial Day across central Pa, as weak sfc low and plume of tropical moisture push east of the area. However, passage of weakening mid lvl shortwave, combined with diurnal heating/destabilization, will likely lead to isold/sct pm shra/tsra. Mdl data indicating a good deal of mid/high lvl cloudiness will continue to stream north from ts bonnie across eastern Pa on Memorial Day, while brighter skies are likely across the western half of the state. Ens mean 850/925mb temps support max temps in the u70s to l80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... All med range guidance continues to point toward a period of fair/warm weather during midweek, as ridge of high pres builds across the state. Cooler/showery wx appears likely by late week, as 5h trof and assoc cold front push se from the Grt Lks. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A trough of low pressure will push across the region late today into Monday. VFR coonds will prevail this morning. Increasing cirrus is expected central and western areas, as high-level moisture is drawn northward from TS Bonnie. Daytime heating/ destabilization will be enough to lead to isolated/scattered mainly afternoon convection confined mainly along the spine of the Alleghenies. Through much of the afternoon, reducing conditions should be contained to the western and poss central TAF sites. As impacts from approaching trough move eastward this evening and especially tonight, the eastern TAF sites will likely see periods of MVFR develop in a moderate rain with isolated TSRA as slight connection to tropical system develops. A chance of showers and isolated TSRA continues into Monday mainly in eastern third, followed by high pressure and more settled weather building into the region through midweek. OUTLOOK... Mon...Sct tsra impacts poss east. Tue-Thu...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...RXR

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