Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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487 FXUS61 KCTP 290223 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1023 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania overnight. An upper level trough will remain just west of the region through early next week, then high pressure will build over the northeast conus for the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Regional radar at 02Z showing periods of lgt to moderate stratiform rain falling across much of central and southern Pa in region of lg scale forcing ahead of approaching shortwave. SPC mesoanalysis showing practically no CAPE left across the region to support excessive, convective rainfall. Thus, have cancelled the flood watch. Latest SSEO supports this idea with its 3hr probability of 2+ inch amts near zero tonight. Will continue to maintain categorical Pops across central/southern Pa overnight, as mid lvl shortwave interacts with anomalous PWATS. Blend of SSEO and latest HRRR supports overnight additional rainfall of 0.25 to 0.75 inches across the southern half of the cwa, with near zero in most spots across the north. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Near term mdl data indicates the back edge of the rain will be exiting the se counties btwn 12Z-15Z Friday with passage of shortwave. Behind this feature, expect brightening skies during late am/early aftn. Diurnal heating could support a few late day tsra, primarily across the Alleghenies/Central Mtns, per latest GEFS/SSEO. GEFS mean 850mb temps of arnd 16C should translate to max temps in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Friday night a short-wave trough will move across Indiana and Ohio spreading showers and possible thunderstorms into western PA. Central PA will see increasing chances for rain becoming likely by afternoon. A second wave moves through in cyclonic flow Sunday keeping the POPs in the 50-70 range with highest chances over the eastern counties. Short-wave moves to the coast Sunday night with ridging building in across Central PA helping clear things out.Monday should be a drier day with sunshine and temps in the 80s.Hi pres ridge should hold through Wednesday though the GFS tries to indicate maybe an isolated afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm over the Laurel Highlands both days. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread rain and showers over much of the southern two thirds of central Pennsylvania this evening, with a few more isolated convective cells across the northern tier counties. Tough forecast for aviation this evening, as conditions will likely be highly variable through the evening and into the overnight. Latest HRRR continuing the trend of keeping a decent amount of widespread, mainly light, precipitation across the region. For TAFs, have generally followed the guidance of a more steady rain in the south, with showers and rain across central and northern sections. Expect most TAFs to be varying from VFR to IFR during the evening into the overnight. More widespread restrictions overnight, even if just due to fog rather than rain. As the system moves out tomorrow morning conditions should rapidly improve from west to east. OUTLOOK... FRI...Some restrictions SHRA/BR in the morning. Some scattered convective cells possible in the afternoon. SAT-MON...Generally VFR through the period, but this will be punctuated by occasional restrictions in SHRA/TSRA. Overnight fog formation also expected, with associated restrictions. TUE...Mainly VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Grumm/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...Grumm/Jung

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