Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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675 FXUS61 KCTP 172358 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 658 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will move off the coast by midnight. An anomalous upper level ridge will build off the east coast next week, with a dying cold front pushing into the state on Wednesday. Abnormally mild conditions will prevail for much of next week. Temperatures will be more typical of early Spring than mid Winter.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Highly energetic system produced one major band of 1-3" per hour rates which stuck in place from Bedford to Newport to nrn Dauphin county for about 2 hours. Many reports of 4-5" across that area, and a second band - parallel and NW of the original band - is forming. But, the new guy is no where near as intense as the first guy, and it is also moving as the low moves away. Course corrections (as the Navy man in the room said) have been made to up totals very slightly and corresponding changes to headlines - mainly to add a stripe of warning where the first band laid down near- warning numbers with an additional inch or more on the way. But, most meso models do drop the intensity off, and seem to reflect the current drying moving in from DC and nrn VA/WV/wrn MD. Thus, the storm is almost over. Another 2-3 hours and all but the Laurels will be down to mainly flurries or nil. Nudged Somerset into a warning as totals there should reach 6+" - esp the ski areas and west-facing slopes. The one spot of interest which the models do not see coming is the patch of hard snow over the PIT metro area. Therefore, we have a slight worry for that to yield more snow than currently fcst in Cambria and Clearfield Cos. But, we will wait for a longer/consistent trend. Min temps will stay in the m-u20s with somewhat of a W/NW wind later tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Freshly fallen snow and high pressure will make for a pretty Sunday morning. Enjoy the snow cover while it lasts though because afternoon temperatures will rise to the lower to middle 40s central and south, and even upper 30s north, promoting plenty of melting. Early morning stratus over the north...otherwise mostly sunny skies expected throughout the day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Made minor changes to the fcst package. Main thing for Sunday night was to lower temperatures...given new guidance and also that some snow will likely result in temperatures falling off quickly after sunset. Took out rain for early Monday morning...except for the far southwest. This area likely to be above freezing. Points further east will see rain later on Monday morning...given time for temperatures to rise above freezing. QPF for Monday and Monday night will be much lighter than the event we had Thursday evening, as the warm front lifts quickly northward. Overall an anomalous upper ridge builds along the east coast next week. Heights rise to 588 across southern PA at 500 mb Tuesday. Much of the area will be well into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday...but could warm well into the 70s if winds mix down. Slightly cooler later in the week...as a cold front slips southward into the area...as high pressure builds over eastern Canada and New England. Models keep the basic pattern the same...so by next weekend...mild conditions could return. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Snow into far southwestern PA now. VFR conditions will quickly give way to MVFR and IFR conditions by late afternoon and early evening...as snow moves into our area. Conditions should improve across eastern areas shortly after Midnight...as the storm quickly moves out of the area. Some lower clouds and light snow showers could linger across the central and western areas to just after sunrise on Sunday. Overall...not a bad day for Sunday. Lots of sun by late morning. Winds will die down by late aft. Some showers and lower clouds next week...mainly for a brief time Monday...and later on Wednesday...but much of the time will be dry with VFR conditions. Also on the mild side. Outlook... Mon...Restrictions return with some light rain. Tue-Wed...Restrictions likely in rain showers, mainly NW at times...and late Wed elsewhere. Thu...Clearing north. Still a chance of showers north. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ057>059. Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for PAZ033. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for PAZ025-026-034-035. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for PAZ036- 056-063. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ027-028- 050>053-064>066. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for PAZ024.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Ceru/Martin

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