Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280514 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 114 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AVERAGING COOLER THAN NORMAL.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR THE WATCH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WE STILL HAVE A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KEEP THE WATCH RUNNING THROUGH 2AM TO DEAL WITH THE COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...BUT OVERALL WE ARE STABILIZING AND OTHER THAN SOME HEAVY RAIN...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD KEEP DIMINISHING. FROM EARLIER... VERY BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FIRST ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION ROTATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING OCCURRED IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY WITH RADAR ESTIMATES EXCEEDING 6 INCHES...AND A SPOTTER REPORT OF WELL OVER 5 INCHES AT SHERMANSDALE (RAIN GAGE TOPPED OUT AND OVERFLOWED AT 5 INCHES). SPORADIC SEVERE REPORTED FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS PRELIMINARY UPPER TROF ROTATES THROUGH...AND 40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE ALLEGHENY CREST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA. MAIN SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY IS NOW APPROACHING WRN PA FROM NORTHEAST OHIO...AND CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING A RAPID END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA RIGHT INTO MONDAY. QUESTION REMAINS IF SOME SORT OF DEFORMATION ZONE CAN FORM AND LINGER THE RAIN OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO THINK ABOUT ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS HOUR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MID SUMMER HEATING WILL HELP SUPPORT AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. BUT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SOME 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS IN A WINTER SYSTEM...THE TIMING OF EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TRIED TO ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON COLLABORATION AND INITIAL MODEL TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. 850 TEMPS APPROACHING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING LATER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. THE THREAT OF GUSTY TSRA WILL DIMINISH BY ARND 06Z...AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF PA. FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OVR THE W MTNS...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARND 12Z MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS BTWN 30-40KTS POSSIBLE...ESP OVR THE W MTNS. NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVR THE W MTNS...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTS IN MAINLY VFR CONDS FURTHER EAST. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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