Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241751 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Mostly sunny skies with a northwest wind will persist into early this evening. Temperatures have reached into the 80s in many locations in southeastern Pennsylvania. Day 1 of many to come over the next 5-7 days. Low-level, but mainly flat fair weather cumulus abound. Radar implied perhaps a lone shower over eastern Schuylkill county but otherwise quite afternoon. This evening the winds and cumulus clouds should quickly dissipate. A good evening to be spinning about. Light winds and clear skies should provide for another cool overnight. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s and upper 40s in cooler spots of the western mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Wednesday should be a near picture perfect summer day. Mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures mainly in the upper 70s to mid-80s. It will not be as cool overnight Wednesday into Thursday but should still be comfortable. But the humid will be beginning it`s steady climb.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity. By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft. Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow. The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to be above normal through the end of the month. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Updated for 18Z package...Second verse same as the first....Mostly clear skies with west northwest winds. Some gusty winds in spots this afternoon. Winds are gusty in the west and picking up in the southeast. Winds should diminish early this evening. Should be VFR all around. There is a slight chance of some very isolated showers in extreme eastern portions of the region this afternoon. Most, if not all the showers should stay well to our east. Overnight VFR will prevail with some patch MVFR in some areas of fog in the valleys of the southeast. We are looking at a long stretch of relatively warm dry weather. OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx expected. Thu-Fri...Isold pm tsra impacts possible. Sat...perhaps some overnight patchy fog or haze && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Grumm

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