Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 290942
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
542 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
An upper level trough will influence the region through early next
week...bringing daily chances of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Most of the time will be dry in any one
location however. high pressure will build over the northeastern
united states by mid to late next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Regional radar at 0845z shows light to moderate rain pulling out
of the Lower Susquehanna River Valley. At present rate of moment,
steady showers will exit Lancaster county by 6:00 AM or shortly
thereafter. Behind this feature, a lull will be seen through late
morning...after which diurnal heating should support isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through late afternoon and
early evening, as per CAMs and SSEO/GEFS. GEFS mean 850mb temps
of arnd 16C should translate to max temps ranging through the
80s...near to slightly above normal for this time of year.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Evening diurnally driven shower activity will dissipate by
midnight...but approaching slow moving upper trof from the Ohio
Valley may support some overnight shower activity reaching into
the Alleghenies and into the central and south central mountains
by 12z Sat. This upper trof will slowly work across PA on
Saturday bringing scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms
to especially central and southern areas. Cheseapeake deep layer
moisture plume sneaks into my southeast counties in the afternoon
and could support locally heavy downpours as the mean trof remains
over the Ohio Valley but individual disturbances lift newd over
PA. With plenty of clouds and scattered showers on
Saturday...highs will range from the mid 70s north to the lower to
mid 80s southeast.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A second wave moves through in cyclonic flow Saturday night and Sunday
keeping the POPs in the 50-70 range with highest chances over the
eastern counties. Short-wave moves to the coast Sunday night with
ridging building in across Central PA helping clear things
out.Monday should be a drier day with sunshine and temps in the
80s.Hi pres ridge should hold through Wednesday though the GFS
tries to indicate maybe an isolated afternoon/evening shower or
thunderstorm over the Laurel Highlands both days.
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z TAFS sent.
Bands of rain will be east of the area shortly.
Main issue for a few more hours will be some fog and low
As the system edges further east, VFR conditions should prevail
This afternoon should feature better conditions than the
weekend, as additional systems move across the area.
SAT-MON...Additional showers and thunderstorms.