Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300045 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 845 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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RADAR LOOP AT 0030Z SHOWS SCT SHRA...AND A FEW TSRA...WORKING INTO THE NW MTNS. WITH LACK OF LG SCALE FORCING...THIS DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY DIE AFTER W/LOSS OF HEATING BTWN 00Z-03Z. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST THRU ARND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE REST OF NIGHT SHOULD BE RAINFREE FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA. HIGH DWPTS WILL HOLD TEMPS UP TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M60S FOR MOST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY WITH A TENDENCY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BOIL UP. STILL THERE WILL BE NO REAL FOCUS MECHANISM SO TIMING WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS ISOLD SVR WX GIVEN THE MODERATE CAPES PROGGED BY AFTN. HOWEVER...WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND ASSOC DEEP LYR SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE THE RISK OF ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SVR.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHEST POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS COLD FRONT STALLS AND A WAVE IS PROGGED TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL PA. PERSISTENT FORCING AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO 1.8" RANGE BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME...AND CERTAINLY THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT GIVEN THAT WE`RE STARTING OUT MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL TO BEGIN. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONVECTION ALONG THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR. CONVECTION STARTING TO WEAKEN...AS EXPECTED. 00Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WESTERN TERMINALS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT IN THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS. THIS HAZE WILL TEND TO THIN OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. OUTLOOK... SUN-TUE...LOCALLY MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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