Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 312020 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 320 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SKY SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THE WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP BY SUNRISE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT BEFORE 10 AM SUNDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES RIGHT UP THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING IT SHOULD BE OVER KPIT...AND ROLL OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS A MUCH MILDER SOLUTION ON THE WHOLE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIMPLE TEMPORARY MODEL WAGGLE BUT RATHER A SUBSTANTIAL/DECISIVE SHIFT. 8H TEMPS GO WELL ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WARM LAYER PRETTY FAR INTO THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AS WELL. THUS...THERE WILL BE A TURN TO RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH A TRANSITION IN P-TYPE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. SLEET LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER...WITH A PRETTY GOOD WARM LAYER. IN ANY CASE...THE MAIN CHANGE IS TO WARM IT UP ON THE GROUND AND IN THE P-TYPE. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT IN THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH ADVY OR PERHAPS LESS SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SRN TIER. BUT...THE CHANCE FOR ICING IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST AN ADVY FOR THEM. WILL HOLD ON WITH 6-8INCHES IN THE CENTRAL STRIPE DUE TO THE GOOD QPF IN THE PROGS DURING THE COLD TIME BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH...BUT GOOD P-GRAD WINDS WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE RATHER WET SNOW AND THE GLAZE OF ICE AFTER WILL PROBABLY CUT DOWN ON BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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TAKEN FROM PREV... A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK STORM WITH POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD ADD TO STORM-RELATED IMPACTS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A COASTAL TYPE SYSTEM SOMETIME NEXT WED-FRI BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THIS SYSTEM.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AT BFD...UNV AND AOO. JST HAS IMPROVED TO VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MFR TOMORROW INTO MONDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...IMPROVING AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. TUE-WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ033>036-064>066. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024>028-056-057-059-063.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

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