Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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819 FXUS61 KCTP 211055 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 555 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The weather for Thanksgiving week travel looks mainly tranquil. Today will be mild ahead a cold front that will move through tonight. Dry weather with near average temperatures is expected through Thanksgiving Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak shortwave lifting out of the Ohio Valley will produce a bit of thin cirrus across the region early this morning. Otherwise, fair weather expected through dawn. Noticing widely varying temperatures at 06Z, with some areas decoupling and a southwest breeze keeping readings up in other locations. In general, expect lows to average in the low 30s, but normally colder valleys will be in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A gusty SW return flow and plenty of sunshine will allow temps to recover from a cool start today. Not sure why blended guidance is so cool. 00Z model soundings well mixed through at least 925mb, where temps between 6-8C should support highs well into the 50s. For now, have conservatively raised national/superblend numbers by just a couple of degrees. Clouds will increase tonight as a cold front pushes into the area. Expect another shot of cold air to follow behind front early Wednesday. A period of rain/snow is likely with the frontal passage. Temperatures falling below freezing and potential for light snow accumulation /melting- refreezing may create slick roads and areas of difficult travel late tonight into early Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper level trough will skirt just to the north of Pennsylvania early Wednesday. Have dropped POPS through Wednesday though have left slight chance in the NW due to the northwesterly flow across the mountains. Another area of high pressure will build east and keep us mainly dry at least through the end of the week, before a new frontal system takes aim at the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. There decent agreement in the EC/GFS timing. The trough swings through Saturday morning with 850MB temps right around freezing. So given that overnight lows Saturday morning will be around freezing expect for scattered snow showers across central PA as the trough and associated front begin to cross the region through Saturday afternoon. As the trough moves through temperatures will be marginal through the low levels so a rain/snow mix is currently expected with more chance of snow farther northwest. Still to soon for amounts though any rain/snow mix will tamper any accumulations. Have adjusted temperatures as NBM seems to cold Friday night into Saturday. Minimum temperatures will be below normal through mid week with a warming trend into Saturday before dropping off Sunday and into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR will continue through the forecast period as high pressure slides east of the Carolina coast. Tightening llvl pressure gradient above the decoupled/stable boundary layer will create LLWS across the Western Mtn TAF sites through the mid morning hours today. Sfc winds overnight through about 14Z Tuesday will be from the SSW at 10 kts or less across Central and Eastern PA airfields. However, some minimal gusts into the mid teens will occasionally occur at KJST and KBFD. Sustained SSW winds of 10-13Kts with gusts into the mid and upper teens area likely Tuesday, thanks to abundant sunshine and vertical mixing up through several KFT AGL. Outlook... Tue night-Wed...Rain/snow showers along and in the wake of a cold front. MVFR likely wrn 1/2. Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected. Sat...Chance of rain/snow showers.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner

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