Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301420 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1020 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH MID DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NWRN PA AS OF MID MORNING. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD POOL ALOFT SUGGEST OUR MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL. CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MODEST SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN LOW...ISOLATED AT BEST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... 4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S. SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EARLY MORNING IFR CONDS WITH SOME CIGS/VSBYS AOB AIRFIELD MINS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z AS FOG/ST BURNS OFF. COSPA/HRRR DATA SLOWS SEWD ADVANCE OF BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY CROSSING LK ERIE/NRN OH. THE MESO MDL DATA THEN SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AIRSPACE/CENTRAL TERMINALS INVOF JST/AOO/UNV BTWN 17-19Z. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM HAZARD. EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY WED. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL. THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF THE APPLCHNS. FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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