Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 111836 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A STRETCH OF COOL MORNINGS AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RADAR QUIET SO FAR WITH JUST FLAT TOPPED CU FIELD ACROSS THE CWA. STILL EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH DID SCALE BACK POPS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGETOPS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY FOG LIKELY CLOSE TO SUNRISE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SMALL AND WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SIMILAR WX PATTERN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE A BIT EAST WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHERSURFACE DPS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGETOPS. MODELS SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE SAT NIGHT AND HAVE POPS THERE TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY INDICATING A FRONTAL PCPN AXIS SHIFTING SEWD THRU THE GRT LKS/OH VLY REGIONS INTO CENTRAL PA SUN-MON. ALTHOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW ATTM...A SEVERE WX THREAT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD IN TIME FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GRT LKS/OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WINDS/CYC FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL SURGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH. EACH COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS A VIRTUAL LOCK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS INDICATED BY ALL MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. THIS WELL- ADVERTISED HIGH MERIDIONAL EVENT WILL FEATURE A FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE AND SEARING HEAT OUT WEST...NOT BE BE OUTDONE BY THE RETURN OF THE POLAR VORTEX IN THE EAST OVER QUE/ONT AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF -3 TO -4SD IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS...CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF BELOW AVG TEMPS /DURING WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR/ IS VERY HIGH FROM TUE-THU OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG SAT MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION THAT DAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN-TUE...BRIEF...MAINLY PM...THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...ROSS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.