Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 230336
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1136 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016
It will be very comfortable for much of the week with cool
mornings and warm afternoons. The next chance for showers will be
on Thursday when a cold front slides southeast across the state.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Skies are clear to scattered with little more than a light breeze.
We`ll see the coolest night in a while tonight under the clear
skies with lows in the 40s across the northern higher elevations and
50s elsewhere. Only weather of note overnight will be patchy
valley fog toward sunrise.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure overhead on Tuesday swings east by Wednesday. This
will bring dry weather with slightly warmer and more humid weather
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The 12Z mid range runs have continued to speed up the onset of
precipitation out ahead of the approaching front. The latest
ensembles continue to show the best PWATS between 18Z Thursday to
06Z Have adjusted the timing of the bell- curve of higher POPs a
little nearer in time as most guidance now places the front over
the area on Thursday/Night instead of Friday as it did previously.
Cooler, drier air will advect into the region bringing a long
period of precipitation-free weather through most of next week.
The next period of active weather will come as an upper level
trough moves into the region Thursday night into Friday. A front
with +1 to 2 STD/anomalous PWATS progress through Friday. That
should correspond with a passing but possibly weakening/shearing
cold front. Dry air under high pressure is expected for next
The week will start off cooler due to the northwesterly flow but
will gradually warm as the week continues with temperatures
slightly above normal through the second half of the week. What
will also make this week feel cooler is the lack of humidity as
dewpoints will be in the 50s through most of the week.
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Clear skies and a nearly calm wind noted across Central Pa late this
evening, as high pressure builds over the state. Radiational
cooling, combined with warm river/stream water, should result in
some early morning fog Tuesday, mainly in the deep valleys north
of I-80. Climatology suggests KBFD is the most likely airfield to be
affected with IFR/LIFR conds. However, there is also some potential
of briefly reduced vsbys at KAOO/KUNV/KIPT btwn 09Z-12Z.
Any fog should burn off by arnd or shortly after 12Z, with a high
confidence of widespread VFR conds and light wind the rest of the
Wed...Patchy AM fog possible, esp KBFD/KIPT.
Thu...Isold pm tsra impacts possible, mainly w mtns.
Fri...AM low cigs possible w mtns.
Sat...No sig wx expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM...La Corte