Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 031438 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1038 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ANY SHOWERS OFF TO THE EAST. WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE W/SC MTNS STILL EXPECTED TO ALLOW SOME CONVERGENCE THERE THIS AFTN/EVENING. SOME SUN BREAKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAURELS AND JUST A BIT BRIGHTER OUT THE WINDOW HERE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CREATE INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30-10 RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING. SOME OF THESE SHRA COULD SLIDE INTO THE SUSQ VLY THIS EVENING. BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING SHRA/QPF DURING THE PERIOD AND SREF ARW MEMBERS TILT THE MEAN POLT THAT WAY AS WELL. CURRENT HRRR/RAP RUNS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. EVEN THE GFS WHICH IS WIDER/MORE GENEROUS WITH LIGHT QPF IN WEAK CONVECTION IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM. HAVE CHOSEN TO STAY THE COURSE AS CURR FCST IS RIGHT IN LINE - ABOUT MIDDLE OF ROAD TO MAYBE JUST A HAIR TO THE NAM SIDE OF THINGS. THUNDER CHC IS VERY LOW WITH A MILD SOUNDING OVER 10KFT. DEBATED PUTTING SOME MENTION IN...ESP IN THE SC MTNS. PREV... PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE OF THE STRATIFORM VARIETY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG TO PLAGUE THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCH FCST OVER THE SE 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN PCPN COVERAGE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIRES GUIDANCE /HRRR-SSEO-NCARENS/ ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS NEAR INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA BY 19-20Z. TRIED TO PAINT THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF IN THIS GENERAL AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO EXPAND SHOWERS ENEWD TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE IN AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED LOW SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON WED INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC BY THURS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING WWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING QPF BUT THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC/CMC. FELT A BLENDED APPROACH WOULD WORK BEST HERE FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 WITH THE MAX PRECIP PROBS GENERALLY SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BY FRIDAY THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE OF A DEFORMATION PCPN LOOK WRAPPING NWWD INTO ERN PA AROUND CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC GETS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS. THE 03/00Z ECMWF MOS TEMPS ARE TRENDING COOLER/BELOW NORMAL VS. GFS FOR MOTHERS DAY. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOG LIFTED AND CIGS ALSO LIFTING AT MOST TERMINALS. BREAKS CLOSE TO JST/AOO SHOULD HELP THEM MIX BETTER/HIGHER SHORTLY. PREV... LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CIGS AND VSBY TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH IFR AND MVFR COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS SE PA ARND NOON TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...LACK OF MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS LINGERING INTO THE AFTN. UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE LAURELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO VFR CONDS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THRU EVENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU

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