Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 140237 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1037 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING ALL BUT THE MTNS OF NORTHWESTERN PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS SHOW INCREASING...LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE /TRAPPED BELOW THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/ DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.../AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LESSEN THE NORMAL NORTH/SOUTH MIN TEMP GRADIENT TO UNDER 10 DEG F. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. A LITTLE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TWD DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY /MAINLY SOUTH/. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL. DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN...AREAS OF MVFR WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FROM AREAS OF FOG FORMING AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS AFTERNON. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...KBFD. OUTLOOK... SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. MON...NO SIG WX. MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. WED - THU...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...GARTNER

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