Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280942 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 542 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS OF 09Z. IN ITS WAKE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND CIRRUS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE SERN ZONES...WHILE THE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION /COMBINED WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE TAPPED FROM THE GLAKES/ WAS LEADING TO AREAS OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS OF PENN. BY LATE THIS MORNING...VERTICAL MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE MOST OF THESE CLOUDS AND LAVE JUST SOME SCATTERED FLAT CU ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK...COOL LLVL ADVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER. MAX TEMPS ELSEWHERE WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND THE MTNS NEAR I-80...TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. PATCHY STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. THE LONE EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE KBFD WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU COULD DRIFT SE AT TIMES. POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ZERO. A FAIRLY LIGHT...5 TO 10 MPH BREEZE TODAY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY DUSK. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP DAYTIME TEMPS TO REBOUND BY UP TO SEVERAL DEG COMPARED TO THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CANADA...TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE GREATEST MOISTURE FLUX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO WARRANT INCREASING PROBABILITY/OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SPURRED ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIATION SO EXPECT SOME MODIFICATIONS AS TIME PROGRESSES. A GFS AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING THE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACHES THE AREA. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW CLDS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH CENTRAL PA...THAN FOG. 09Z TAFS UPDATED. EARLIER DISCUSION BELOW. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS ARE CLEAR OF LOWER AND MID LVL CLDS...BUT A PATCH OF CIRRUS IS ACROSS THE AREA. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE NRN VALLEYS AS THE TEMPS DROP OFF WELL BELOW THE RIVER WATER TEMPS. BUT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE WIND WHICH COULD IMPEDE FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP MVFR FOG IN MOST TAFS AND IFR FOG IN BFD FOR A FEW HRS LATE. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 06Z TAFS. THE NW WINDS PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE BUT SKIES AND VIS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW- END VFR CLOUD DECK MAY DROP DOWN FROM WRN NY STATE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CLDS WILL LIKELY BE AT BFD. MID LVL WARM AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS WORKING IN WILL LIMIT CU OTHERWISE. OUTLOOK... FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR. SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR

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