Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 311529 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1129 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LAST VESTIGES OF THE EARLIER...PATCHY DENSE FOG/STRATUS BURNING OFF ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY INVOF KSEG AND KIPT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO BLANKET THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED AND THE CU FIELD BEGINS TO EXPAND /IN BOTH THE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL/. THE APPROACH OF SOME ENHANCED MESOSCALE LIFT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JETLET/ WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND NE MTNS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THE REGION FROM THE LOWER SUSQ...NE TWD THE POCONOS FOR THE BEST CHC OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 18-23Z...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. ELSEWHERE... PRECIP CHCS APPEAR TO BE MUCH LOWER AND AREAL COVERAGE SPOTTY AT BEST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL GET A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN WED - VERY NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT STILL 5-10F BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA /ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND/.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER DURING THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME BEING WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND PLACEMENT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR /AND IN A FEW PLACES - BORDERLINE IFR/ CLOUD BASES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF PENN AT 15Z/...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO HIGHER END MVFR OR VFR AFTER BY 17-18Z. WILL MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT. JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR

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