Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231824 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 224 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the region dry through at Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will bring cooler, more seasonable weather to the region by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Ridging continues. Surface obs show increase in surface moisture to our west. With surface high slowly drifting east, look for an increase in surface moisture overnight, making for a warmer morning. Will keep mention of valley fog as well. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Another summerlike sunny day with strong high pressure over the state. There will be a noticeable increase in humidity with more uncomfortable conditions as a result. Very warm with some highs close to 90 across the SE zones. Warm and humid overnight Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The large blocking high is made to remain over the region through early next week as the remains of Jose continue to weaken, with the models showing the circulation eventually either dissipating or getting absorbed into the northern periphery of the slowly advancing Hurricane Maria off the SERN US coastline. Shortwave energy is eventually made to track east through SRN Canada causing our upper heights to begin falling by Wednesday. At the same time Hurricane Maria is forecast to be moving northward off the eastern seaboard. Models are trending closer to the coast by the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe with several members of the ECENS/GEFS actually bringing the storm very close to or even hitting Cape Hatteras, before finally recurving the storm out to sea south of the 40th parallel. The main issue locally is whether we see any kind of marine influence possibly bring some light rain/drizzle into my eastern zone for Wednesday as is suggested by the ECMWF. While the latter portion of the forecast will depend on just how fast Maria moves north as the upper shortwave approaches the area from the north, I used the blended MOS to put low chance POPs in the forecast starting Wednesday. From that point it`s still uncertain how fast and deep the northern stream shortwave ends up being. There is reasonable agreement through Thursday before the GFS speeds up and deepens the wave through the area Friday. The ECMWF and the GEFS are slower and less amplified, holding the most significant troughing off until the weekend with a cooler showery pattern. The bulk of the extended will be much warmer than normal, a true late season visit from summer, before the pattern turns cooler to end the new work week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions overnight. Patchy valley fog possible for a couple hours near sunrise Sunday. .Outlook... Sun...VFR conditions. Mon-Wed...Patchy AM valley fog possible. Otherwise VFR conditions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Ross is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.