Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 010634 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 234 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... RAPID CLEARING BEHIND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS PROMOTED DENSE FOG FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 13Z FROM BLAIR AND BEDFORD COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND FARTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DID NOT SEE MUCH RAINFALL TUESDAY...SO HOLDING OFF ON NPW FOR FOG THERE FOR NOW. CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A COMPACT AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAINTAINING A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND A LARGE AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS. ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMTS BY 6 AM WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND WESTERN POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE DOTTED AROUND...ALONG WITH THE AREAS OF CLEARING PROMOTING AFOREMENTIONED FOG DEVELOPMENT...DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 06Z WED-06Z THU...COSPA/HRRR SHOWS BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN PIVOTING SLOWLY NWD AND WEAKENING NEAR IPT-RDG LINE THRU 09Z. RAIN SHOULD END AT LNS BY 07Z. FLGT CATS ARE HIGHLY VRBL AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM BLW AIRFIELDS MINS TO VFR. EXPECT SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY IFR OR BELOW TO REMAIN THERE THRU DAYBREAK...WHILE OTHER SITES TREND TO LOWER FLGT CATS GIVEN WEAK SFC FLOW...TIGHT DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AND RECENT RAFL. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTN/EVE. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS AND WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. OUTLOOK... THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE APPLCHNS. FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS. SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018- 019-025>028-034>036-045-056-063-064. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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