Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020750 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 350 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WETTER AS THE FRONT WAGGLES NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH HEIGHTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS START TO BACK A BIT LATER IN THE DAY AS THE RIDGE LINE MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... BIG HUDSON BAY LOW SPINS SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS COULD STAY MILD TONIGHT THANKS TO A SLIGHT SSW WIND. BUT TEMPS COULD DIP BELOW 60 IN THE NORTHWEST DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. POP IS LOW FOR THE NIGHT...GIVEN THE WEAK MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LACK OF CONVERGENCE. BUT THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING QUITE A BIT OF NOISE UPSTREAM. SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK NOW PLACES ALL OF CTP CWA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR MONDAY. THE DAYTIME/EVENING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND MODEST CAPES WILL DOUBTLESSLY ALLOW FOR STORMS...BUT THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AND SEVERITY ARE IN QUESTION. WIND PROFILE EXHIBITS A SLIGHTLY CURVED HODOGRAPH AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE BOWING SEGMENTS. TEMPS COULD GET TO 90F IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE DOWN FROM THE NW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. A DRY DAY OR TWO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT WAGGLES MORE NORTH THAN SOUTH. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS UP COMING WEEK WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 02/03Z...RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE LOW GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LGT SFC WINDS. HOWEVER PATCHY FOG/VERY LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR FLYING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WITH SCT TO NMRS TSTMS LKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OUTLOOK... SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX. MON...VFR WITH LCL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT-NMRS P.M. TSTMS. TUE-THU...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR VIS IN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. CONFIDENCE LOW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...MARTIN/TYBURSKI AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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