Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281143 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 743 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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850 MB COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING... PRODUCING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT EARLY TODAY AND DELIVERING DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. SFC OBS INDICATING LOWER 50 DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO NORTHWEST PA...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER ON. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE LOWER SUSQ...WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70F...WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MIXING OUT BY MID MORNING. THIS AREA SEEMS PRIME FOR AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN GIVEN COMBO OF BEST MSTR AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK SEWD-ADVANCING 850 MB FRONT. WITH THE BOUNDARY FCST TO SLOW/STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT... KEPT VERY LOW POPS IN THE FAR SRN TIER AFT 00Z. A SSELY LLVL FETCH MAY SPELL A LARGER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CORRIDOR FROM JST/AOO TO UNV AND IPT SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN TODAY WITH FROPA EXPECTED PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. INCREASED MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR WHICH TAKES READINGS UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F IN THE LOWER SQV. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW-MID 60S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW AN INCREASINGLY HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL PM CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWARD DRIFTING...PULSE-TYPE TSRA WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SVR WX. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE L80S MOST PLACES...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM AVG ACROSS WARREN CO DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SSE FLOW. LACK OF LG SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN COLLAPSE OF EVENING CONVECTION ARND SUNSET. THE REST OF FRI NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH HIGH DWPTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS A CONTINUATION OF SUMMERLIKE WX INTO SATURDAY...WITH 00Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND SFC PRES OFF THE E COAST. A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA COMES LATE SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. EARLIER MDL TIMING DIFFS HAVE BEEN RESOLVED WITH MDL CONSENSUS NOW PUSHING COLD FRONT THRU SUN MORNING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN 00Z GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION SUN-TUE...PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN SUN-TUE. 00Z GEFS MEAN QPF BTWN SUN-TUE RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCHES. BASED ON GEFS AND OPER MDL GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS MAY NOT HIT 60F ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN PA SUN/MON. IMPROVING CONDS APPEAR LIKELY BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVR THE SE CONUS EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO PA. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -SHRA AT BFD SHOULD END BY 09Z FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS. UPSTREAM/NEARBY OBS SUGGEST IFR TO EVEN LOW IFR CIGS AND HAVE LOW MVFR FCST. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINIAL GIVEN FAVORABLY LGT SSW UPSLOPE FLOW AND TIGHT T/TD SPREAD BUT WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. OTHER TROUBLE SPOT(S) WILL BE OVER THE SE AIRFIELDS IN ZNY SECTOR WITH CVRG OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPANDING THROUGH DAYBREAK. LNS WENT DOWN QUICKER THAN FCST AND WILL NEED TO AMD. MDT WILL LKLY SEE A SLOWER DOWNSIDE TREND AND CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE (VS. LNS). IPT WILL BE ANOTHER WILDCARD AND RECENTLY DROPPED TO 2SM. VISBYS AT JST/AOO/UNV SHOULD STAY AOA HIGH MVFR RANGE. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH RISK OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY SERN TERMINALS AHEAD SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LIMITED CVRG AND RELATIVELY LOW POINT-PROBABILITY WILL PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE MD BORDER WITH A DEVELOPING SSELY FLOW PERHAPS SUPPORTING A BROADER AREA OF UPSLOW LOW CIGS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. ISOLD AFTERNOON TSTMS. SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD FROPA. SUN-MON...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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