Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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762 FXUS61 KCTP 260419 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1119 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will build east across Pennsylvania Sunday, then off the east coast early next week. Low pressure will track north of the area during the middle of the week, with a trailing cold front pushing through Pennsylvania late Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Blustery and much colder conditions overnight with scattered lake effect snow showers across the Alleghenies. Low inversion heights and warm ground will result in only very light accums of less than an inch across the Allegheny Plateau. Model soundings showing a well mixed boundary layer up to 850mb overnight, supporting gusts over 30kts in some places late this evening and around 25kts late tonight. Temps will continue to fall under CAA overnight, bottoming out in the low 20s across the high terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low 30s across the LSV. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure ridge will build into the region Sunday, causing winds to subside and any lingering snow showers/flurries to end by midday over the western mountains. Although the day should start cloudy across the western/northern mountains, expect stratocu to begin breaking up (even across the nw mountains) by late in the day based on model RH fields. Temperatures will return to near or slightly below average for late February - but it will feel much colder given the recent run of magnificent spring-like warmth. High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night with clouds increase ahead of shortwave tracking through the Mid MS/OH Valley. Model blend keeps pcpn well to the SW of the area through daybreak Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak shortwave brings chance for light precip on Monday, though lower levels look fairly dry as surface high exits eastward. Elongated low developing over the central U.S. on Tue will edge a warm frontal boundary toward the region, bringing chance for light precipitation and ushering in another round of warmer than normal temperatures (though not as high as the past few days). By Wed, upper wave catches up to the low, bringing a more significant rainfall, followed by a cold frontal passage. Colder and very breezy conditions then in store for late week in NW flow, along with sct lake effect snow showers in the NW Mtns. Cooler air lingers into the weekend as upper flow remains from the NW while 1037mb surface high pressure slides through. Yet another weather system slides through the Great Lakes this weekend, with center of low remaining to our north. But shower chances increase for the NW half. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Conditions have transitioned from an active convective precipitation scenario to active wintry winds. A cold front has exited the region leaving an increase in winds in its wake. Generally 290-310 degrees at 15 gusting to 30 knots across the board. Lake effect snow showers have brought down visibilities to 1/2SM in KBFD but this will diminish as the night progresses. Elsewhere...VFR conditions will continue through the period with the gusty winds diminishing during the daylight hours on Sunday. Outlook... Sun...MVFR/-shsn west bcmg VFR. Mainly VFR central-east. Decreasing winds. Mon...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain. Tue-Wed...Rain showers/Sub-VFR reductions likely. Thu...Strong FROPA with gusty winds. Sub-VFR likely west. && .CLIMATE... **Updated 11am 2/25/17** New Record high temperatures for Feb. 24: Harrisburg 2/24: 76. Previous 75 in 1985; all-time Feb record is 78F. Williamsport 2/24: 76. Previous 71 in 1985; New record high temperature for the month of February. Altoona 2/24: 75. Previous 69 in 1985; New record high temperature for the month of February. Bradford 2/24: 69. Previous 59 in 1961; New record high temperature for the month of February. State College 2/25: 74. New record high temperature for February and meteorological winter (DJF). ----------------------------------------------------------- Warmest February on Record (Avg. Temperature through 2/24) Harrisburg: 2017 rank=1 (40.8) 2. 40.4 in 1998 3. 39.6 in 1976 4. 39.4 in 1954 Williamsport: 2017 rank=1 (37.6) 2. 37.0 in 1998 3. 36.1 in 1954 4. 35.6 in 2002 Altoona: 2017 rank=1 (39.3) 2. 37.4 in 1976 3. 36.2 in 1998 4. 35.9 in 1990/1954 Bradford: 2017 rank=T1 (32.3) 1. 32.3 in 1998 2. 30.1 in 2002 3. 29.6 in 2012 4. 29.5 in 1990/1976 ------------------------------------------------------------- && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Steinbugl/Tyburski CLIMATE...

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