Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190729 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 229 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the East Coast on Monday. An anomalous upper level ridge will build off the east coast this week warming the region to near record temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will move into Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A very wet pattern then sets up with the temperatures slightly cooler, but still much above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... An increasing southerly breeze is causing temps to rise at 07Z over much of central Pa, while a few of the valleys of eastern Pa remain decoupled and continue to fall through the 20s. Latest models and upstream radar returns still indicate the possibility of some light rain reaching the southwest half of the forecast area by dawn. Can`t rule out a brief period of fzra over the higher ridgetops of the Laurel Highlands. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... Model guidance continues to support a good chance of rain today, as warm front lifts into western Pa, while wedge of cooler air remains trapped east of the Appalachians. Highest POPS of near 100 pct are painted across northern Pa, where best isentropic lift is indicated at nose of low level jet late morning into the afternoon. Can`t completely rule out a rumble of thunder over northern Pa, where some elevated instability is noted in the models. Southern portions of the forecast area may see late day improvement, as the baroclinic zone and best isentropic lift shifts to the north. Max temps are likely to range from the 50s on the warm side of the front west of the Alleghenies, to the 40s east of the mountains. Latest NBM surface temps, as well as 00Z HREFV2, support the possibility of a bit of fzra over on the ridge tops of north central Pa until late morning. No plan to mention in HWO, due to uncertainty and localized impacts at worst. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... All medium range guidance continues to show a building anomalous upper ridge along the east coast next week, with central PA breaking into the warm sector by Tue. 500 mb heights fcst to 596...not sure I have seen heights this high as this in Feb. Anyway...record high temps appear quite possible Tue/Wed. Hard to recall a pattern like this...with the upper level flow off the Gulf of Mexico. Mid shift had temperatures a little warmer than I had them yesterday. After looking things over...did up temperatures even more. Easy to see temps between 70-75F over much of the area both days...if not higher. A cold front will push through the region Wed PM...accompanied by a chance of showers. This boundary will likely stall just south of Pa before returning north as a warm front late in the week with a renewed chance of rain. Med range models do indicate there could be just enough low level cold air for the potential of some fzra Thu night or early Friday across northern Pa. Did not change much in this time frame...given how far out things are. Past this time frame...models show a low moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday. This would support another warm up. For day 7...the fcst is largely the superblend...with some minor adjustments. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight as a warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley. A developing southerly breeze will bring LLWS in late, especially over the western portion. This will also aid in spreading stratocu restrictions in from the SW predawn Monday, with light rain and more widespread restrictions prevailing during the day Monday. Expect cigs and vsbys to degrade overnight into early tomorrow beginning between around 09Z and continuing through the morning and the first half of the afternoon. Conditions will slowly improve late Monday. Outlook... Tue...Restrictions early east. Scattered rain showers and restrictions NW. Wed...Restrictions likely in rain showers, mainly NW half. Thu-Fri...Restrictions probable in rain showers. && .HYDROLOGY... Unlike the event last Thursday evening...the flow is less west...east with the next system. Strong upper level ridging should push the warm front to the north faster. Thus QPF should be rather light across the area prior to 18Z Wed. Heaviest QPF prior to this time will be likely across northwestern Warren County Monday evening...with perhaps isolated amts in the .50 to .75 inch range. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru HYDROLOGY...

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