Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190332 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1132 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE POCONO PLATEAU WSW THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO NEAR PITTSBURGH AT THIS HOUR. LAKE MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO BRING SLOUDINESS INTO THE NORTH AND INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE MIX FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT SCT-LCLY BKN LINE OF CUMULUS ALONG WITH A FEW FAHREHNEIT DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP AND SLIGHT WIND SHIFT WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER...WHICH WILL BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE IN MOST AREAS. IT WILL BE CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLDEST VALLEYS ALONG THE NORTHERN PA BORDER. STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT EASTERLY GRADIENT SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM GOING CALM AND PRESENCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FROST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...SFC WINDS WILL TURN SERLY/SRLY HELPING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN FREE..MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY FALL-FEELING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARMER AIR AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ON INCREASING SW FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA /RETREATING TO THE EAST/. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS DEVELOPING SYSTEM APPROACHES PA FOR SUN/MON. THE INITIAL RESULT WILL BE A PAIR OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAYS SAT-SUN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S FRI NIGHT TO AROUND 60F SAT NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW/STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES NORTHWARD...OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREEING ON POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH TO POTENTIALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF. THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY SLIPPING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES AS TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NE. LOOKS LIKE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AGAIN BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS FOR MIDWEEK AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE NO PRECIP AND ONLY SCT CLOUDINESS IN MOST PLACES. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. 11-3.9 MICRON SATL IMAGERY AT 03Z IS ALREADY SHOWING A PATCH OF LOWER CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. KBFD JUST DROPPED TO A 800FT CIG AT 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...AND EVEN POSSIBLY WORK SOUTH TO KJST ARND DAWN. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...PRES GRADIENT SUGGESTS A NERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD VIS RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY. ANY EARLY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE W MTNS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. ALL MODEL DATA THEN SUPPORTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF VFR CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS W MTNS. MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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