-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 230155
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
955 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF
THE REGION AS OF 01Z. SFC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY BASED ON 01Z OBS. HOWEVER...LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND LACK OF REMAINING INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A DRY FROPA OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 01Z-03Z.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY AS OF 01Z. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ALREADY OVERSPREADING NW PA IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE E GRT LKS. SCT -SHRA
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NW MTNS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
SURVIVING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF RELATIVELY MOIST BLYR
SHOULD PRODUCE SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. CAN/T RULE OUT A LIGHT COATING ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABV FREEZING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO ARND 30MPH LATE
TONIGHT...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVR PA.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COOL POOL ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS.
HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH WEDNESDAY...AS PA REMAINS IN
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW OVR NEW ENG AND HIGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
FROM THE 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING WILL EXIT THE
STATE BY MIDNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH
BRIEF WIND GUSTS HAVE EXITED MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA...BUT A FEW
WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO
BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...