Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290002 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 802 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will sag slowly south tonight and Monday morning. High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry weather for Monday into Wednesday. A cold front will move across the commonwealth Wednesday followed by a refreshingly cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Convection continues to fire this evening along axis of deep moisture/instability ahead of approaching shortwave from southwest to north central Pa. Moderate CAPEs per SPC mesoanalysis and weak shear suggest storms will be of the pulse variety this evening, with little risk of organized svr weather. However, PWATs arnd 2 inches indicate some potential of localized flooding from slow moving storms. Radar trends and latest HRRR support the idea of the highest POPS across the central mountains this evening, with little chance of any rain across the se counties. Guidance indicates dwindling convection will accompany a weak cold front, as it pushes south across the state late tonight. Will keep the overnight fcst dry across the se counties for now, but may need to introduce at least a slight chance late tonight given the anomalous PWATs preceding the front. Lows generally in the 60s will average some 10-15 deg above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The weak cold front will stall along or just south of the Mason/Dixon Line Monday afternoon providing the low level convergence to help focus what will be mainly scattered convection during the afternoon over southern PA. High temps Monday will vary from near 80 across the NW Mountains to around 90 in the southern valleys. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result, above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the period. A weakening cold front will push slowly SE through the Commonwealth tonight and early Monday Sunday night into Monday morning accompanied by isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. The frontal boundary is expected to wash out near or just south of the Mason/Dixon line during the day Monday. Abundant low-level moisture, mesoscale convergence and some orographic lift/heating via the east to NE low level flow regime across the mountains of SW PA will focus the best chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms there Monday afternoon. Monday night through Wed morning looks to be dry with generally light wind and just the possibility of patchy early morning valley fog. Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front pushing SE across the area Wednesday afternoon or early Thursday, with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next week. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday into the weekend over the northern and western higher terrain, with low to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough amplifies from central Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Several hours of showers and storms, before things taper off. MDT and LNS not likely to see anything. Main issue late will be fog and low clouds, especially in areas that saw rain, such as UNV. Did bring in lower conditions to IPT. They had no showers so far, but as skies clear late, low level moisture could result in the typical BKN004 CIGS there. Conditions should improve by 14Z, as slightly less humid air works in from the north. Outlook... Tue...Patchy AM fog, then VFR. Wed...Sct PM TS impacts possible. Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Martin

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