Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200839 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 439 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN COLDER VALLEYS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE CIRRUS FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE KEPT CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN INTO OUR REGION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE DAY. THE CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER SUNDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY. THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO 0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES. CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS AROUND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM THE NE TO THE SE...BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...GRUMM AVIATION...RXR

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