Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 290002
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
802 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
A weak cold front will sag slowly south tonight and Monday
morning. High pressure will bring another period of warmer than
normal and mainly dry weather for Monday into Wednesday. A
cold front will move across the commonwealth Wednesday followed
by a refreshingly cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Convection continues to fire this evening along axis of deep
moisture/instability ahead of approaching shortwave from
southwest to north central Pa. Moderate CAPEs per SPC mesoanalysis
and weak shear suggest storms will be of the pulse variety this
evening, with little risk of organized svr weather. However, PWATs
arnd 2 inches indicate some potential of localized flooding from
slow moving storms. Radar trends and latest HRRR support the idea
of the highest POPS across the central mountains this evening,
with little chance of any rain across the se counties.
Guidance indicates dwindling convection will accompany a weak
cold front, as it pushes south across the state late tonight. Will
keep the overnight fcst dry across the se counties for now, but
may need to introduce at least a slight chance late tonight given
the anomalous PWATs preceding the front.
Lows generally in the 60s will average some 10-15 deg above
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The weak cold front will stall along or just south of the Mason/Dixon
Line Monday afternoon providing the low level convergence to help
focus what will be mainly scattered convection during the
afternoon over southern PA.
High temps Monday will vary from near 80 across the NW Mountains
to around 90 in the southern valleys.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from
a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to
a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result,
above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the
A weakening cold front will push slowly SE through the
Commonwealth tonight and early Monday Sunday night into Monday
morning accompanied by isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms. The frontal boundary is expected to wash
out near or just south of the Mason/Dixon line during the day
Monday. Abundant low-level moisture, mesoscale convergence and
some orographic lift/heating via the east to NE low level flow
regime across the mountains of SW PA will focus the best chance
for showers and scattered thunderstorms there Monday afternoon.
Monday night through Wed morning looks to be dry with generally
light wind and just the possibility of patchy early morning valley
Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front
pushing SE across the area Wednesday afternoon or early Thursday,
with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms.
This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next
week. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday into the
weekend over the northern and western higher terrain, with low
to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough amplifies from central
Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Several hours of showers and storms, before things taper
off. MDT and LNS not likely to see anything.
Main issue late will be fog and low clouds, especially in
areas that saw rain, such as UNV.
Did bring in lower conditions to IPT. They had no showers
so far, but as skies clear late, low level moisture could
result in the typical BKN004 CIGS there.
Conditions should improve by 14Z, as slightly less humid
air works in from the north.
Tue...Patchy AM fog, then VFR.
Wed...Sct PM TS impacts possible.
Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM...La Corte