-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 140645
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
245 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
BREEZY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY. A SURFACE WAVE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND EXIT THE OUTER
BANKS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SAT LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MID CLOUD SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO
NRN PA. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
SW AS THE CLOUD SHIELD PROGRESSES SE. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A DRY
AND RATHER UNEVENTFUL OVERNIGHT.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE CLIPPER LOW CROSSING THE UPPER GR LAKES. TEMPS WILL BECOME
STEADY OR EVEN RISE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WRN MTNS...WHERE WINDS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE SHELTERED ERN COLD SPOTS LIKE SEG AND
THV MAY STILL DECOUPLE BUT OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD BE TRENDING TO
THE UPSIDE IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG WAA PATTERN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY SW FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF SFC CLIPPER LOW TRACKING ACRS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SRN
ONTARIO AND UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTN. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTN SUNSHINE...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT GOING SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE MOS GUID BLEND GIVEN STRONG BLYR
MIXING AND SW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW. 24HR TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL BE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ON THE ORDER OF 25-35 DEGREES.

THE LEADING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER LOW
WILL SHIFT SEWD ACRS CWA FRI NGT...WITH LGT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LKLY
FROM THE NW PLATEAU INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LGT SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SPREADING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
DUE TO DRYING/DOWNSLOPE WSWLY LLVL FLOW.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LG SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO P/SUNNY CONDS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRI.

A RELATIVELY STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE/NLY FLOW MOVG FROM LAKE
WINNIPEG/SOUTH-CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LKS
WILL SEND A SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWD THRU THE CWA SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A MOIST LOW PRES SYS SHOULD BE
ORGANIZING IN THE LWR MS VLY/DELTA REGION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTING UP FROM MISSOURI TO VIRGINIA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON SWD SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR ASSOCD WITH SFC
HIGH INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES..AND THEREFORE CONTINUED TO TREND
TEMPS COLDER ON DAY 4/SUN BASED ON CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS A FIXTURE ACRS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND
MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON FOR THIS CYCLE.

1) SFC WAVE OR WAVES MIGRATING NEWD FROM GULF COAST STATES ACRS
THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC MON-TUE.
2) PLAINS SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVG E/NE THRU THE GRT
LKS AND APPLCHNS TUE-THU.

THE KEY FEATURE OF INTEREST /SYSTEM #1/ REMAINS THE MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FWIW...THE 13/12Z GFS/GEFS AND 13/15Z
SREF MEAN CONTINUE TO TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE NON-NCEP
MODELS...LEAD BY THE EUROPEAN CENTRE...IN REGARDS TO POTNL RAIN/SNOW
SCENARIO FOR ST. PATRICK`S DAY/17 MARCH 2014. IN FACT...THE NCEP
DATA IS NOW EVEN MORE ROBUST IN DEPICTING A BROAD AREA OF PCPN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY ON DAY 5/MON...SUGGESTING
THAT MY FINAL NDFD POPS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH. A POOR-MANS ENSEMBLE
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE/HPC GUIDANCE...FAVORS INC POPS
BUT CAPPED AT HIGH CHC/50PCT. WE`VE SEEN RECENTLY THAT SMALL
CHANGES IN THE TRACK CAN HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WX..SO
A SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT IN POPS SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS POINT.

CONCERNING SYSTEM #2...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A SFC RIDGE SHOULD
SEPARATE THE DEPARTING SYSTEM #1 AND SFC LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS/GEFS TRENDING SLOWER INTO MIDWEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR DAYS 6-8.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL PA INTO FRI EVENING.

A MID DECK WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH MARGINAL LLWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WSW TO AROUND 30-40 KTS.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY EVE AND NIGHT...LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA...WITH CIG
REDUCTIONS BECOMING LIKELY BY 06Z.

ANOTHER STORM TRACKING SOUTH OF PA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON COULD
BRING SOME SNOW CLOSE TO SE PA.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM -SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT-MON...SNOW WITH RESTRICTOPMS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES...OR MINI-MAXES WERE SET TODAY:

BRADFORD SET A MINI-MAX TODAY REACHING ONLY 15 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 19 SET IN 1992.

ALTOONA ALSO SET A MINI-MAX TODAY REACHING ONLY 25 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 26 SET IN 1980.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...