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000
FXUS61 KCTP 221133
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
733 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay
anchored across the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and
Northeastern States through at least the middle of next week.
This will continue of dry and unseasonably warm weather to
Pennsylvania.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The high clouds associated with Jose have helped limit fog
formation over most of the region tonight, which makes it the
only real difference in sensible weather we have had during an
overnight for the better part of a week.

For today, forecast soundings show the high clouds thinning
throughout the day so a hazy sunshine will be the rule during
yet another unseasonably mild day.

It will continue fair overnight with the redundant mention of
late night valley fog for the region. Lows generally in the 50s
will be 5-10 deg warmer than normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Dry and warm with comfortable humidity. Not much to elaborate
on.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It looks to remain dry into at least Wednesday as the ridge
that kept Jose locked offshore protects us for several more
days. Weak flow at night should allow for valley fog to form and
to greet morning commuters.

At this time it looks like the remnants of Jose will remain
offshore with the next chance for rain locally being with a
weakening cold front that the latest guidance brings our way for
perhaps later wednesday into Thursday.

The models agree in keeping the upper ridge the dominant feature
into midweek, before northern stream energy starts to chew away
at our high heights. The ECMWF is faster in bringing a shortwave
through the NERN US while the GFS is slower but carves out an
intense upper low dropping into the OH Valley for next weekend.
This feature is not in the GEFS nor is it in the ECENS so a
flatter faster moving shortwave seem the better idea. Either
way it will lead to a cool down by the end of the week into next
weekend.

As for once mighty Maria, NHC models keep it well east off the
coast as it heads north later next week. The ECENS shows the
closest approach to the eastern seaboard, bringing the storm
about 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras around Thursday. It will
give us something to watch over the next week or so. It`s worth
noting, the storm will be moving over waters that have been
churned up by Jose . While still a large and dangerous storm,
between the shear and colder waters, it has seen its best days
intensity-wise.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Like yesterday, got a few minutes of fog at UNV, along
with a orange sky at sunrise. A large number of birds flew
by the office at the same time. Can see several areas on the
radar, where a large number of birds are taken off.

Other than that, the main site for fog has been BFD.

More detail below.

Did edge off fog some, not even seeing any fog at foggy sites
such as SEG as of 1 AM. The combination of high clouds, a little
breeze at times, and mainly less moisture in the airmass than
earlier in the week, will result in less fog this morning, than
earlier in the week. This was the case yesterday morning.

Any early fog should burn off between 13Z-15Z, then model data
supports a near certainty of VFR conditions and light wind
everywhere for this afternoon, as high pressure remains over
the region.

The period Saturday into next Wednesday will feature more
good late summer weather with similar conditions to the last
few days.

.Outlook...

Sat-Tue...Patchy AM valley fog possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical Fall/Autumnal Equinox begins at 4:02 PM this
afternoon. See if you can stand an egg on its head.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...La Corte