-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 241905
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
305 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this
morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week.
In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the
region by midweek. A cold front will likely push southeast
across the region next Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Scattered to numerous showers with embedded isolated
thunderstorms have progressing across the north central,
central, west central mountains and laurels at mid afternoon.
Most have low cores producing brief downpours, but a few are
persisting in a lines producing additional heavy rain in areas
that saw enough of it last night. Lycoming and Clinton Counties
may see some minor flooding from current shower/tstorm complex
crossing the area through 400 pm. Minor rotation seen in
northern Cambria with pendant type echo there. Overall sub
severe cells expected, but will need to be monitored through
this evening as they progress into more unstable air to the
east.

SPC has indicated only 5% likelihood of a Watch issuance, and
agree. Main threat will be brief (in most cases) downpours and
gusty winds to 40 mph as cells race to the east at 30 mph or
faster.

Front clears my eastern counties as per CAMs by late evening.
Drier air overspreads central PA late tonight and early Tuesday,
bringing an end to the latest very humid seige. Mins tonight
will range from the more comfortable mid 50s north to the mid
60s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A much more pleasant air mass will be over the region on Tuesday
bringing a more comfortable day with little to no chance of rain
for a change. Clouds may linger for a time over the Alleghenies
and keep temps a bit lower than guidance. Highs will only reach
the upper 60s north...and range through the 70s to the lower 80s
elsewhere. A nice change with dewpoints in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High centered over central PA Tuesday night. Marine layer in
easterly flow may bring some clouds and a slight chance of a
shower into the eastern zones Wednesday. Next weather sytem
moves in Thursday with increasing chances of storms into the
night. Cold front moves southeast of PA Friday morning with a
lingering chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day as a
short-wave drops over the ridge to the west and into the trough
on the east coast. Conditions dry out for Saturday as high
pressure builds in. A wave on the front that moved south of PA
may bring showers up around the Mason-Dixon line Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper trough and sfc cold front will cross central PA by evening
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to central
and eastern PA mid to late afternoon with intermittant
localized impacts.

Showers diminish by evening, but linger the longest in the
northern mtns. This is also the best chance for ceiling
restrictions tonight. With plenty of low level moisture around,
expect valley fog to develop areawide as well.

.OUTLOOK...

Tue-Wed...AM cig restrictions north/west. Valley fog areawise.
Otherwise no sig wx.

Thu...Chance of afternoon TSRA/SHRA.

Fri...Slgt chc of morning shra...otherwise VFR.

Sat...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR