Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260851 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 451 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FIRST OF TWO OR THREE SPOKES OF DIFF PVA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A DISTINCT MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...WILL BE OVER THE NW MTNS EARLY TODAY AND TAKING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE FEATURES /ONE OVER NRN OHIO AND THE OTHER OVER SW LOWER MICHIGAN/ WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES OF NW PENN...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND CENTRAL MTNS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE REGION MAINLY WEST OF KBFD. ELSEWHERE...STRATO/ALTOCU CLOUD COVER NEAR AND JUST SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DISSOLVE A LITTLE MORE WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING. SOME PATCHES OF HIGH BASED SC OR AC CLOUDS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BUT SKIES THERE AFTER 15Z SHOULD TURN MOSTLY SUNNY. LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN PENN THAT HAVE SEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG THROUGH 12Z AS TEMPS SLIDE INTO THE U40S AND LOWER 50S...NARROWING THE T/TD SPREAD TO 0-2 DEG F. IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL EARLY MORNING FOR LATE AUGUST WITH LOWS FROM THE U40S OVER PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED...RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE COLD NW FLOW WILL THICKEN UP THE CLOUDS AND INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT QPF OVER NWRN PA AND THE LAURELS DURING THE DAY TODAY. EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE HIGHER SREF POPS AND LOWER GEFS CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FAVORING THE AREA TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLEARFIELD UP TO ELMIRA IN SOUTHERN NY. THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL SEE MORE OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES SNEAKING OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN /NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF I-99/ THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE CHILLER THAN TUESDAY BY AN AVERAGE OF 3-5 DEG F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... EVENING CLOUDS/AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS UP NORTH/ WILL CONSOLIDATE BACK ACROSS FAR NWRN PENN OVERNIGHT /SIMILAR TO SO MANY COLD SEASON LER OR LES EVENTS/. SKIES ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE GENERALLY PTLY CLOUDY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A DEEP UPPER LVL LOW WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT AIR OF 0.75 INCH OR LESS STAYS OVER THE STATE. SOME GUIDANCE SHOW A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA FOR THIS PERIOD. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME...BUT WITH SLOWLY WARMING MAX TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CIGS AND WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN SITES IN ZOB SECTOR TODAY. MEANWHILE DOWNSLOPE WLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SCT-BKN LOW VFR CIGS WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND ERN TAFS/ZNY SECTOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE PATTERN THURSDAY AND PROVIDE FAIR WX/VFR INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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