Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280950 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 550 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG. THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z. AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER. OUTLOOK... WED...MAINLY VFR. THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU

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