Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170928 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 428 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the state through Friday. A frontal system will move into the area Saturday with much colder and blustery conditions following it for the end of the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Isolated showers or rain and snow continue to decrease in intensity and coverage. HRRR dissipates these completely by 06z but it appears they may linger just a bit longer. Still gusty west- northwest blowing 25 to 35 mph in spots...slowly decreasing in the pre dawn hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Friday will be fair and uneventful as we get a break between frontal systems. Highs will be a tick or two cooler than today with a diminishing wind as high pressure moves over the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next impactful weather system will be a storm system that will move through the eastern Great Lakes Saturday. A warm front-cold front combination will bring a period of rain to the area that will be moving in from the west by sunrise Saturday, progressively spreading eastward across the region during the day. QPF into Sat night will be around an inch over the NW mountains tapering to 0.25-0.50 over the SE. The associated cold front is made to pass through the state Saturday evening and overnight, ushering in a shot of cold air and setting the stage for an early season bout with lake effect snow showers for Sunday and Monday. The usual snowbelt areas of NW Warren county into northern McKean County will be the most likely so see several inches of snow, with lesser accums even down into the Laurels. High pressure moving to our south will influence the weather to start Thanksgiving week, bringing a couple of cool-dry days. Temperatures will begin to modify Tuesday with a SW flow expected to develop. Though jet stream will remain north of the region, a quick moving trough will brush the region on Wed followed by a weak shortwave Wed night, which will bring chance for light snow showers back into the NW along with a return of slightly cooler air. GFS hangs on to this trough into Thanksgiving weekend, while the ECMWF brings a flatter 500mb flow pattern. So forecast confidence remains on the low side in the 7-10 day range. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Satellite imagery at 09Z still showing extensive stratocu downwind of the Grt Lks, covering much of central Pa. The main concern early this morning will be at KJST, where upstream observations and model data suggest cigs will be teetering between IFR and low MVFR until 10Z-11Z. As high pressure builds in, expect stratocu to break up later this morning. KJST and KBFD will likely be the last to clear, with MVFR cigs possible until around 15Z based on latest model soundings. Northwest winds still gusting 20-25KT at 06Z, but expect them to subside later this morning with arrival of high pressure. High pressure over the region will ensure VFR conditions the rest of today and this evening with winds becoming light. Outlook... Sat...Rain with low cigs possible, mainly KBFD. LLWS possible. Sun...Windy with gusts 30-40kts. MVFR in snow showers NW. Mon...MVFR cigs/sct -shsn psbl early NW 1/4. Tue...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner SHORT TERM...La Corte/Gartner LONG TERM...La Corte/RXR AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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