Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 262326 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 726 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will set up shop over the western Atlantic for the next several days bringing warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Last visuals show what little convection we had is diminishing pretty quickly now that the sun is going down. Made some near term tweaks to lower pops overall to fit radar trends as well as near term high res guidance. Lingering broken mid clouds for much of the overnight should prevent anything more than than thin fog from forming. Should there be a few spots that clear after seeing a shower, then locally lower visibilities could prevail for a few hours until just after sunrise. Mins tonight will feel mid-summerlike in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... CAPE surges to much higher values than what we had today (Thursday)as heights build aloft and drier air advects east into the region AOA 6 kft agl. Terrain and areas of enhanced sfc heating/weak sfc troughing will likely be the primary trigger for potentially strong pulse convection Friday afternoon/evening. Therefore...generic chc pops will be followed with no specification as to which location will see the greatest threat for the sct SHRA/TSRA. What rain does fall could be heavy with almost zero storm motion and PWATs will still be above 1 inch. Partly cloudy skies...light wind and moderately high dewpoints Friday night will lead to another mild night with the potential for light fog late. Mins in the low-mid 60s will be common. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Summertime upper level ridge over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states is forecast to peak around 29/00z with above normal heights returning to normal by early next week. Temperatures should follow a similar trajectory with maxT departures of +10-15F on Saturday /within 3-5 degrees of daily records/ before trending modestly lower/toward climatology into the first week of June. The tropical disturbance /Invest AL912016/ approaching the Southeast U.S. coast will add additional moisture to an already humid/unstable airmass in place through Memorial day weekend. Widely scattered, diurnal convection remains probable Saturday afternoon/evening with initiation likely triggering along the Allegheny spine before drifting east. Some interaction between the tropical disturbance and mid latitude trough crossing the Central Appalachians likely favors the greatest pcpn risk/potential pcpn coverage on Memorial Day (Monday) with a decreasing chance for rain into Tuesday. The 26/12z deterministic and ensemble guidance are in broad agreement in a dry period of weather from Tuesday into Wednesday before pcpn risk gradually increases into the second half of next week. Heights are forecast to rise a bit around the end of the period before the large scale pattern slowly shifts toward a western ridge/eastern trough configuration by June 6th as depicted by the 26/12z NAEFS and 26/00z ECENS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure over the region will result in widespread vfr conds with just a 6-10 kt south-southwesterly breeze continuing through late this afternoon. Gusts in the mid to upper teens will occur acrs the nrn and wrn mtns. An approaching weak upper lvl disturbance and subtle sfc trough, combined with an increasingly moist ssw flow, will produce sct shra/tsra during the aftn and early evening. Although vfr conds will predominate, a brief vis reduction is possible associated with a passing shra/tsra. Widely sctd evening shra/isolated tsra should become confined to taf sites kmdt and klns this evening before tapering off, as the disturbance passes east of the region. The focus will then shift to the potential of patchy late night fog under light and variable wind...especially in spots that receive rain this aftn/evening. A moist swrly flow ascending the mtns could also result in ifr cigs at KBFD late tonight, as latest mdl soundings and SREF prob data suggest. OUTLOOK... Fri and Saturday...Early am low cigs possible. Isold pm tsra impacts possible. Sat-Mon...Isold pm tsra impacts possible. Tue-VFR && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.