Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011203 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 803 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PENN EARLY TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE DELMARVA REGION LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE...AND COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BRING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. COOL CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLY LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING...AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... A WEAK...1015 MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED INVOF KUNV AT 0830Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL PENN TODAY...WHILE MORE NUMEROUS/HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFT ENE INTO THE LOWER SUSQ REGION. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. AREAS OF CLEARING HAVE HELPED TO CREATE LOCALLY DENSE FOG /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH/. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE CHILLY MID 40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE MORE BALMY UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE STATE. && .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. A WAVY...LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...FROM CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LAYER PWATS STAY AT AROUND PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /OR 1.75 TO 2 INCHES/ TODAY...WHICH WILL MEAN THE THREAT FOR NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME TRAINING TSRA. LATEST SREF/GEFS INDICATES THAT ABOUT A 1000 J/JG DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST THROUGH SE OF THE HARRISBURG ARE...WITH NIL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE UNDER A DUAL LAYER OF STRATUS AND ALTOCU CLOUDS. PAINTED ANOTHER SOLID 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE SE ZONES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 50S....AROUND 60F OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT NE-SW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN PA TODAY. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE SERN TERMINALS WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED AT INVOF MDT/LNS INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...IFR-LIFR CIGS ARE COVERING MOST OF ZOB SECTOR TAFS AND EXPECT ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIRMED WITH UNV ATCT THAT THEY HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE AWOS...WHICH HAS BEEN IMPACTING AUTO OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT. THEY HOPE TO RESOLVE IT TODAY. AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PORTIONS OF AIRSPACE THRU MID WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE...A.M IFR/MVFR CIGS BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA AND TSTMS FAR SRN/SERN AIRFIELDS. WED-FRI...LOW CIGS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ064>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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