Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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704 FXUS61 KCTP 191901 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 201 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of mild, spring-like weather with well above normal temperatures is expected through the end of the upcoming week. A weak cool front will push through the state late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Satellite shows clouds have cleared all but far southern Somerset County. The weak back door cold front is now just a remnant in the pressure pattern with all the clouds having dissipated. Another almost perfect late winter day is in progress with bright sun and mild temperatures. Fair weather will continue into the overnight, but there will be a tendency for some low clouds to develop after midnight under the weak upslope flow and strengthening subsidence inversion. Overnight lows will bottom out from the mid 20s to mid 30s, still quite mild for mid February. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Similar to today, clouds will tend to mix out by mid to late morning Monday. Once again we will trim a few degrees off today`s highs as a slightly cooler airmass slides down over the region as high pressure builds toward northern NY and New England. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. The rather strong sfc ridge slides to the Mid Atlantic/Southern New England Coast on Tuesday, followed by a weak cold frontal boundary and a brief period or two of showers for late Tuesday (West) and over the Central and Eastern parts of PA Tuesday night into the mid morning hours of Wednesday. Clouds associated with this weak frontal boundary will help to suppress temps a bit (but they`ll still remain well above average). The flow turns back to the SW by Wednesday causing temps to rebound. The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread VFR will continue into the evening. The gusty surface wind will diminish to 10kt or less this evening. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to redevelop, mainly over northern areas down into the Laurels later this evening into Monday morning. Similar to today,. clouds will mix out by late morning or early afternoon leading to widespread VFR Monday afternoon. Outlook... Tue...Sub-VFR psbl with chance of rain. Wed...No Sig Wx. Thu-Fri...reduced conditions with rain showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/RXR AVIATION...La Corte

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