Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260119 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 919 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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11-3.9U IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. STILL EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BASED ON NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING SERLY BLYR FLOW WEAKENING AND VEERING FROM SE TO SOUTH. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LINGERING SPRINKLES LATE THIS EVENING. FOCUS NOW ON DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT. FOG IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...AS IR LOOP NOW SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSRPEAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100 PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS. THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST. FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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