Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251947 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 347 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS. PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED- WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/. SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR COUNTRY. TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY 21Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE 1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION. THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/. HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS . && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS. SAT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AND A BETTER CHC FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A MODERATELY GUSTY SW FLOW /17-22KTS AT TIMES/ COMBINES WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND DRYING FINE FUELS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...LAMBERT FIRE WEATHER...

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