Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 311040 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK FRONTS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE MOVING DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 AM... SUNSHINE ALREADY STRONG. NO REAL TWEAKS TO FCST NECESSARY. PREV... DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN NY STATE BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNSET. THE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODERATE SPEED SHEAR. LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...MID-LEVEL CAP...WEAK INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS PRETTY MUCH BAY. MARGINAL RISK DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AFTER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL START TO THE DAY. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY TO RAMP THE TEMPS UP TO NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTN TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SUCCEED IS MAKING ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STORMS RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR AND A GOOD CAP WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO DIE OUT AS THEY GET TO PA. NIGHTTIME LOWS 55-65F. DEWPOINTS DON/T MOVE MUCH INTO SATURDAY...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE STORMS TO FORM ON SAT AFTN/EVENING - BUT AGAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION IN THE SRN HALF. 8H TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT VS FRI...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL - ESP IN THE NW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS. DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 11PM UPDATE... OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SUN...MAINLY VFR. MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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