Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 050551 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 151 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING UNDER THE EAST/WEST SFC RIDGE THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN PENN. T/TD SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN WERE 0-2 DEG F. LESS FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...WHERE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT...TOPPED BY CIRRUS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. T/TD SPREADS ACROSS SRN PENN AT 05Z WERE STILL SEVERAL DEG F IN MANY LOCATIONS. EXPECT THE FOG TO GET LOCALLY DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BY 13-14Z...BENEATH SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET GROUND AND POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE PLUME OVR THE GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS. INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS. ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN. THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY. DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUE. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST 4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LAST REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENDING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOW CLOUDS AROUND LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST....WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTER TAF SITES. WITH SETTING OF SUN/COOLING TEMPS AND VERY MOIST LEVELS NEAR SFC...EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FORMATION OF FOG. MVFR AND IFR THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST AREAS IF NOT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONDS. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS OFF. OUTLOOK... MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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