Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 211908 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 308 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS PA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE STATE FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY HELP FIRE SOME MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAURELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THOUGH THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY... THE MAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A RE-ENFORCING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLD/WDLY SCT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MSTR KEPT POPS AOB 20 PCT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SOME BUT STILL AVG BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY SATURDAY MORNING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME FROST IN THE OUTLYING AREAS AROUND STATE COLLEGE. WITH A FAVORABLE PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM MODEL CONSENSUS...COLLABORATED WITH BUF/BGM ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NRN MTNS WITH FCST MINS IN THE 28-32F RANGE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST RISK IN THE HWO AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD FROST HEADLINES AS NEEDED. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY. THIS WILL LKLY IMPACT PCPN RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE...WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RISK OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN INCREASINGLY HUMID/MUGGY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS PA. MOST OF THE CIGS ARE...AND WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWERED CIGS AT KAOO AND KUNV AND IFR AT KJST. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE STATE FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY HELP FIRE SOME MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN AND NRN MTNS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING....THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW...DRAWING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... FRI-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSS IN SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER

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