Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 171404 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1004 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level low pressure system will bring a slight chance of showers today before a large ridge of high pressure returns to dominate our weather for much of the work week. Temperatures this week will run well above average.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A weak mid level low embedded within the larger scale upper ridge over the NERN US is just enough to trigger some slow moving showers. Rain gages over portions of Lebanon and NERN Lancaster indicate 1-2 inches of rain fell from some of these showers. The RAP shows a small max of PWAT over my SERN zones along with weak easterly 850mb moisture transport. The model indicates the weak upper low will meander very slowly over eastern PA/NJ/NY right into the evening. Models do generate some modest CAPE, especially over those eastern areas where the deeper moisture is being observed. We have scattered showers mainly for the afternoon hours, but it would not be a big surprise if a few thunderstorms pop up as well. A bit more way in the way of cloudiness is slowing the recovery from the fog that formed late at night, so the earlier optimism we had for developing sunshine has to be tempered somewhat. By late morning we will see a mix of sun and clouds in most areas with showers working into the mix. Expect max temps from the upper 70s over the higher terrain, to the low and mid 80s in the Susq Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Surface High pressure ridge holds tough tonight and Monday bringing mainly dry weather and pleasantly warm temps with very light wind. Min temps will range from the upper 50s across the nrn and wrn mtns, to the lower and mid 60s in the metro areas of southeastern PA. High temps Monday will feature a very tight temp range in the Mid to Upper 60s. Fog could once again become quite thick between 5 and 8 am. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather. The ridge will be reinforced with Hurricane Jose forecast to remain far enough offshore to just bring some high clouds to the eastern half of the area. As Jose moves away heights will rise and this should further dry us out for the latter part of next week. The GEFS forecasts a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights by next Friday and Saturday which will translate to well above normal temps. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Areas of dense fog are burning off slowly. Satellite shows clouds developed and moved over the top of the valley fog which is slowing the burn off process. Altoona and University Park look most embedded in the valley fog and could take until late morning or mid day to finally improve to VFR. Elsewhere any MVFR ceilings will gradually lift with most terminals being VFR by early afternoon. A weak mid level disturbance will trigger scattered showers and possible isolated thunder with afternoon heating. These showers could bring brief reductions to any airport that tales a direct hit. VFR conditions later today and thins evening will deteriorate once again tonight MVFR/IFR at most terminals later tonight and Monday morning. .Outlook... Mon...Areas of A.M. fog. Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Perhaps an isolated afternoon shower. Tue-Wed...Mainly dry with patchy morning fog. Otherwise primarily VFR conditions. Eastern areas may see NE winds 10-20 mph as main impacts from Jose remain off to our east. Thu...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross/La Corte NEAR TERM...Ross/La Corte SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Ross AVIATION...La Corte/Lambert

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