Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 232227 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 627 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A mainly dry cold front will pass through later today and tonight. Fair weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected over the weekend. Another cold front will push through early in the new week and could make some rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold front sitting along the northern PA border this aftn. Skies are clear/mostly sunny to the south of the front with just few to scattered Cu developing across the region. An isolated very isolated shower remains possible later this afternoon or evening across the northern half of the area ahead of the front but no returns on the radar at this time. There is an infinitesimal chance of a thunderstorm, but not worth mentioning T at this point. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Model data pushes cold front all the way through central PA tonight. But, without upper level support or even moderate moisture, we expect a mainly dry fropa for much of the area. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze, that band of clouds along and just behind the front will keep things mild tonight - especially over the south - with mins between u40s in the northern mtns to around 60F in the south. If winds drop off to near calm across the north, could see some late night valley fog, while an active northerly breeze precludes fog issues elsewhere. Will not mention fog for tonight quite yet. The clouds should dissipate/slide southward Saturday morning and leave a mostly sunny day. Maxes will be about 10F cooler than Friday - right about normal to very slightly above normal. Sunday morning looks almost certain for fog in the valleys as temps drop another 10F from Sat AM and the air will be calm. Only the dryness of the airmass could preclude fog, but am fairly certain of fog. Sunday is another wonderful but dry day. The maxes may be a few degs cooler than Sat in the south, and may actually turn out sub- normal there. But similar and normal maxes will occur elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure north of area will bring clear skies and seasonable temperatures Saturday night and Sunday. Clouds increase Monday ahead of significant cold front headed our way. This front will bring much needed rainfall Monday night and the first part of Tuesday. After front pushes through on Tuesday dry weather returns again with temperatures staying close to seasonal norms with a slow warming trend each day. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will push south across Pa tonight, possibly accompanied by a brief shower across the northern part of the state this evening. However, the biggest concern will be potential low cigs forming at KBFD, as abundant low level moisture combines with upslope northerly flow behind the front. Model soundings suggest the greatest threat of IFR cigs at KBFD will be between 02Z-06Z. Further south, the risk of significant reductions diminishes, but can`t rule out a brief period of low cigs at KJST around dawn. Arrival of high pressure and associated dry air mass should ensure widespread VFR conds Saturday, after some potential of early cig reductions at KJST. Outlook... Sun...Patchy AM fog possible, then VFR. Mon-Tue...Increasing risk for showers/thunderstorms ahead of cold front. Wed...Improving conds...generally VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Gartner NEAR TERM...Gartner SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner LONG TERM...Ross AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.