Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 032118 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 518 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY NE DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL. BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME. HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO DEVELOP. OUTLOOK... SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX. MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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