Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250118 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 918 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will push north of the region Saturday before sagging south ward across central Pennsylvania Saturday night and Sunday. Very mild conditions are expected tonight and Sunday as we enjoy the warm sector south of the frontal boundary. However...increasing clouds and southeast flow are expected on Sunday as the boundary sags southward as a backdoor cold front...bringing cooler conditions and eventually some patchy drizzle or light rain. Unsettled conditions will last from late Sunday through Tuesday as a series of disturbances interact with the front. No heavy rain is expected during this timeframe however. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... The surface warm front is bisecting the state this evening from north to south with 01Z readings ranging from 67F at Bedford, to 44F at Lancaster. Best WAA remains along and north of 850mb baroclinic zone north of Pa, so little chance of any precip overnight. Will maintain a low chance of a shower along the NY border nearer to the periphery of east coast upper ridge. Near term models indicate the warm front will stall out over the central part of the state tonight, so expecting the coolest overnight readings in the east. Lows into Saturday should range from the 40s east, to the lower 50s over the western and central mountains. There will be areas of low clouds and drizzle in the vicinity of the NY border adjacent to the stalling sfc boundary. Areas farther south stand to see the least cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Near term models indicate even eastern Pa will break into the warm air by late morning, but the warmup will be short-lived, as high pressure building into New Eng pushes a backdoor cold front through central Pa during the afternoon and evening hours. A good deal of cirrus will hold temps down a bit, but even just mixing to 925mb supports max temps in the upper 60s and low 70s south of I-80. An earlier arrival of the front will result in a cooler and cloudy day across the northern tier counties, where southeast flow and nearly saturated soundings in the sfc- 850mb layer suggest patchy drizzle is possible. Further south, there could be scattered afternoon showers in the increasingly warm and unstable air over southern Pa...but most will stay dry. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Frontal boundary sags back into the region from the north (pushed by a high pressure area sliding SE across S Ontario) on Sunday as a low approaches from the Ohio Valley. This will sag cooler and more moist air into the region. Light showers/drizzle possible through much of the day, but main precip event impacts central PA Sun night into early Mon as low moves through. QPF looks to be around 0.50 inch. Temps Sunday will be noticeably cooler behind the backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely through early next week, as GEFS indicates PA remains beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs. The chance of showers again spikes with passage of next shortwave Tuesday into Wednesday and another one to start the weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Just some high clouds as of early evening. Expect VFR conditions to prevail early on tonight. MVFR and IFR conditions later tonight into Saturday, as a cold front over southern Canada sags southward later tonight into Saturday. Not looking at a lot of rain and drizzle away from northern PA early on. However, lower conditions to slowly work southward into Saturday afternoon and evening. Looking at mild, but at times, wet weather for the later part of the weekend, into early next week. Outlook... Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain. Wed...Mfvr to VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.