Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011454 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL LIFT FOR SUNDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A BKN LAYER OF ALTOCU AHEAD OF A WEAK...NORTH/SOUTH SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EAST AND OUT OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUALLY VEER OF THE SFC WIND BY ABOUT 20-30 DEG WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS INCREASING BY ANOTHER 5 KTS OR SO. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST OR NW WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS BASED ON BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE DEPTH OF VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 7 KTS AGL. RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 6C/KM WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH... SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F...AND STG HEATING OF THE DAY AND WE SHOULD SEE ISOLD SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSRA/ BETWEEN 17Z-22Z. MAX TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE SE. SOMEONE MAY SEE 90F IN THE LOWER SUSQ THANKS TO A LIGHT-MDT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND KEEP THE DAY DRY. WHILE MDLS HINT AT SOME ACTION ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...FEEL THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH VERY LOW MOISTURE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE THE DOG DAYS OF AUGUST. DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD HEAT UP FAIRLY NICELY AND MIX DEEPLY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET BACK TO NORMAL IN THE NW AND MAYBE ADD A DEG ONTO SATURDAY MAXES. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN OTHERWISE DRY FLOW WILL ADD JUST A LITTLE GULF MOISTURE TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND SPARK SHRA/TSRA LATER SUN NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN MONDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST JUST LIKE EARLY THIS PAST WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS MODERATE ON DAYTIME TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. POPS HAVE THUS BEEN MOVED UPWARD TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HRS. MAXES MAY GET INTO THE 90S IN THE SE BEFORE THE FRONT. BUT MAY STAY IN THE 70S FOR THE NW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN A FASHION REMINISCENT OF WINTER. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST UPPER LOW VS. SHORT WAVE SPOKES...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH NW FLOW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSRA PSBL IS THIS AFTN...GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENT AND NE PENN INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH AND A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. OUTLOOK... SUN...MAINLY VFR. MON-WED...VFR...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED-SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...MARTIN/TYBURSKI AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER

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