Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290646 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 246 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A widespread moderate to locally heavy rain event will continue through tonight. Minor flooding impacts are likely across the southern half of central PA. Unsettled weather with occasional lighter rain showers will persist into the weekend with a gradual drying trend by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... 130AM: Minor changes to previous near term fcst. The 29/04z HRRR- TLE shows the highest probs for 0.50-1.00 inch rainfall thru 12z located over the western Blue Ridge/WV/MD panhandles into the southern Laurel Highlands and over the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Radar trends would seem to agree for now with relative min in pcpn from KCHO-KDMW. Temps should hold fairly steady or drop just a few degrees with most locations in the mid 50s to around 60F. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Heavy rain event is expected to be ongoing over south-central PA on Thursday. An enhanced convergence axis/frontal zone is progged to develop on the east side of an upper low meandering over the OH/TN Valley, tapping into deep moisture/high PW air off the Atlantic Gulf Stream via anomalous east/southeast low level jet. The heavy rain axis is progged to gradually pivot to the southwest with time oriented within moderate excessive rain outlook area from southwest PA near the Laurel Highlands southeast into Northern VA/D.C. area. The strength of the upslope flow and high PW transport along with some elevated instability should provide an environment for efficient rainfall processes. WPC QPF nudge employed this afternoon but overall staying the course from previous forecasts...despite a downtick in some deterministic solutions in the 12z cycle. Dry antecedent conditions may limit more significant flooding/runoff issues. Still expect minor flooding to result from long duration continuing throughout Thursday. event...and am maintaining Areal Flood Watch for Laurel Highlands, South Central Mountains and southern portions of the Central Mountains for late tonight through Friday morning. Will continue to highlight potential flood risk in HWO elsewhere...but heaviest rain should fall across the southern half of the area. The upper low is fcst to drift back to the west/NW into the OH Valley on Friday before slowly moving to the ENE across the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend. We should continue to see periods of showers on Friday but rainfall amounts will be much lower and less organized. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The upper level low will continue to slowly move through the Eastern Great Lakes region and into Southern Canada which should pull the moisture to the north. Some lingering showers should continue through Eastern PA Saturday afternoon. There is some disparity on the timing of the exit of this low and whether or not it opens up into a wave. The model guidance still suggests unsettled conditions over the weekend with a gradual decrease in the chance for showers by Sunday. Temps still holding close to seasonal normals as we turn the calendar to October. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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An increasingly moist easterly flow will overspread central Pa early this morning, bringing low cigs and rain. Model soundings and latest SREF output support predominantly IFR cigs through this evening at the higher terrain airfields, including KBFD, KUNV, KAOO and KJST. At the lower elevation airfields, predominantly MVFR cigs are expected today at KIPT, KMDT and KLNS. However, periodic IFR is likely this morning associated with bouts of heavier rain. Outlook... Fri-Sat...Low cigs/showers likely, mainly w mtns. Sun...AM low cigs possible. Mon...Showers/cig reductions possible at KBFD.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for PAZ024>028-033>036-056- 063>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Ceru/Steinbugl AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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