Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020145 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 945 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS STREAMING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OHIO. UPPER RIDGE IS BEING IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF WEAK WRN OH CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLE WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED SLGT CHC MENTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUTLOOK... THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR. && .CLIMATE... PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE CLIMATE...

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