-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 301012
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
612 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
610 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE AND THUNDER NOW STARTING TO MOVE TO THE SHORELINE.
WILL HURRY UP THE ON-SET/TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS/PLACEMENT.

PREV...
MID-LAKE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE JUST A BIT TOWARD THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE. THE SHORT WAVE HELPING THOSE STORMS SEEMS
TO BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OUT OF THE ANVILS
WILL BRUSH WARREN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MID-LATE
MORNING. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PAIR OF PREVIOUSLY DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PESKY UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS MORNING AND SLIDE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES LOOK MEAGER OFF
RUC/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE
CAPES. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW TODAY...HANGING
AROUND 7 OR 8KFT. SO WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY NOT GROW VERY
TALL...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ICE IN THEM. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THE NW. MOST RECENT SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT MENTION ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GROW MORE-CLOUDY THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING IN THE NW. EXPANSIVE CU FIELD EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET BACK TO THE NOT-SO-LOFTY HEIGHTS OF TUESDAY AND ADD A FEW
DEGREES ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS. TRY TO
BANK THE SAVINGS YOU WILL HAVE ON THE A/C THIS JULY WHICH SHOULD
END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE 7 DAYS 90F OR BETTER IN
HARRISBURG THIS MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME AREAS CLEAR NOW. STILL SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN THING NOW IS AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW.

09Z TAFS SENT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 09Z TAFS.

DETAILS BELOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...GIVEN
THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN