Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251939 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 339 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will keep it slightly cooler than normal through the first part of the week. Widely scattered showers may still pop up each afternoon through Tuesday, mainly across the northern third to half of the state. A warm up and return of higher humidity will occur mid to late week. Several chances for showers and thunderstorms are in store for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Forcing in the form of a weak short wave trough crossing the lower lakes is coinciding with the heat of the day and is causing numerous shra and just a few ltg strikes in wrn NY and NE OH. Expect these conditions to be replicated over our nrn mtns shortly, but forcing slides to the east and we lose heating later this afternoon. So, best timing of shra is through 21Z in Warren Co and through 00Z in Tioga Co. As with yesterday, the llvl air is very dry, so smaller and fast moving shra may not even wet the ground. After the showers move to the east, the only feature of note is a very slight sfc trough made to move off the lakes. This feature may be a mid-lake convergence band due to the abnormally warm lake water and cooler-than-normal air temp. This feature could produce a shra or two along the LE shore and has a tiny chc to make a shra in the far NW late this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Monday looks very similar to the weekend with an afternoon shra/tsra passing quickly across the nrn tier. Temps a little cooler aloft and heights a little lower Mon than today, so there could be more shra/tsra coverage on Mon. Have kept the POPs in the likely category in the NC mtns and mention shra as far S as the turnpike. Max temps will probably be a few degs F cooler than Sun with 8H temps about 2C cooler in mid-aftn. Deep mixing and June sun should still push us back into the m-u60s N and m70s S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Seasonably strong large scale upper trough will slide overhead Mon night into Tue, accompanied by a dying front that will erode as it moves into area of surface high pressure centered over Virginia.This will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low-topped thunderstorms on Tuesday, especially across northern portions of CWA. However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology. The trough will lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the middle of the week bringing cooler and dry weather, followed by a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge for late week. A trough developing over the upper Midwest will bring increasing southerly flow ahead of its attendant frontal system and will result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures and low level moisture/humidity starting Thursday. Expect max/min temps to rise above normal levels for the weekend along with an increase in convective activity - especially over NW half of CWA. Convection will be more scattered over the SE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak short wave trough aloft is overhead now and sliding east. Additional forcing will coincide with the peak heat shortly and drive numerous shra/tsra across the northern tier - incl KBFD - through the late aftn, but probably before sunset - near 01Z - all that will be off to our east as well. So, will mention tempo shra in BFD for a few hours, but drop them after 21-22Z. Wind drops off again around 00Z. Just a few model solutions bring a shra or two off LE early tonight. Otherwise, only a little valley fog possible in the morning, but anoither day of deep mixing will make it less likely for us to see fog Mon AM than we did this morning. No mentions of fog are necessary at this point. Winds pick back up again Mon by 14Z, but should be less gusty than today. A repeat of peak heating/instability shra/tsra are possible on Mon and Tue - mainly if not exclusively across the N. .OUTLOOK... Tue...Mainly VFR, but scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA north. Wed...VFR. Thu-Fri...Mainly VFR, but isolated/scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA. && .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar has been brought back on line temporarily (as of Sunday afternoon), but further outages are expected through at least Monday evening. This outage is allowing the technicians to install the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Dangelo EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.