Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 170336
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1036 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017
The brisk and cold northwest flow will decrease overnight as
high pressure builds into the central Appalachians and noses
into the state. A big warm up is in store and the moderation
begins on Friday. A stretch of spring-like weather is expected
over the weekend and well into next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Clearing into Altoona and slowly but surely working to the NE.
Have matched this trend in the sky cover. Only flurries left at
this point, save for Bradford, and this was already forecast. As
winds die off in the west, the temps should drop into the l-m
teens where dewpoints currently lie.
Clearing line advancing from the SW associated with large scale
subsidence is moving very slowly, and only now are the
reflectivities dropping off near KJST. But, the end of the
flurries is in sight - except for the northern tier where
flurries may last until midnight. Otherwise - it`s all good.
Lake enhanced, orographic snow flurries continue to decrease in
coverage and intensity and cancelled the Lake Effect Snow
Advisory for Warren County early this afternoon. Impressive wave
clouds cover most of central and southeast PA this afternoon as
the cool northwest flow persists over the commonwealth. These
will tend to decrease as we head towards late afternoon and
especially after sunset over the southeast. The west and north
will hold onto the clouds the longest tonight thanks to the
persistent lake fetch...but building high will shut this off
later tonight. A cold night will be had throughout with lows
ranging from the mid teens north to the lower 20s southeast.
Gusty winds will finally die down as well late tonight.
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The beginning of a long-lived warmup starts Friday as large
upper ridge over the upper midwest moves to the western GLAKS in
the afternoon, and surface ridge builds into central and eastern
PA by late in the day. Highs will reach the upper 30s north and
mid 40s south...but with plenty of sunshine following this
chilly Thursday, it will feel much nicer than that. A harbinger
of things to come for the next several days for sure.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
From Friday onward the region will be in a warm trend through
next week. A weak cold front will push into the region Sat
night. However, it has little to no mid to low level moisture so
no precipitation is expected. That front will give way to a
rather strong high pressure system that will build over the
eastern United states and Canada into mid next week. After this
ridge moves eastward mainly zonal flow will dominate the weather
pattern, keeping warm air across the region. High temperatures
will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures
mainly above freezing. Latest plumes are fairly consistent
through Monday before there becomes more of a spread in the
ensembles. However even the ensemble mean remains above normal
through this period.
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Clearing starting to work to the north and east.
03Z TAFS sent.
Earlier discussion below.
Clouds amd snow showers will persist overnight, given a
northwest flow of air across the Great Lakes.
Conditions will improve on Friday, as high pressure moves
east of the area, and winds shift to the southwest.
Several mild spring like days in store for the area this
weekend into the first part of next week. Should be mainly
VFR, but patchy morning fog will be possible at some point,
as dewpoints come up.
Sat-Tue...VFR/No sig wx
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