Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020632 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 232 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVG INTO WV MAY KICK OFF A VERY ISOLD SHOWER INVOF THE LAURELS AS PER HRRR BUT CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW. BETTER CHC LATER TODAY WITH THE HEATING CYCLE. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE TODAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH VFR BY 14Z. ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY TO RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE IMPROVING. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUTLOOK... THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

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