Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221822 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 222 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push to the east of Central PA this evening. High pressure then builds in. However, a storm moving up the East Coast and could brush southeastern PA with a little rain on Tuesday. It will then be rather unsettled with many chances for rain through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be fairly close to normals.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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Cold front now thru about three-fifths of the area, but not in any hurry. Precip still possible in the far eastern towns until 5 or even 6 PM. Winds never switch around to the west in those places, and then just go light for the night. Temps still struggling to get where they have been projected to be but perhaps a little sunshine and better/deeper mixing will help post-front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Major trend is toward a lower chc of rain in the SE on Tuesday. The NAM is very dry and the wet (a few hundreths) GFS and EC keep any precip to the S of the turnpike. We will start to weight the forecast toward less clouds and less chc of precip on Tues. Maxes will actually have a chance to overachieve on Tues with lots of sun in the northern and central counties. 70s widespread with m70s in the north.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... After mainly dry conditions Tuesday night and Wed morning, the beginning of an extended unsettled weather pattern occurs later Wednesday and it will linger into the weekend, as a deepening and slow moving upper-level low drops into the Great Lakes and surface low pressure develops over the Mid- Atlantic region. Light showers will begin to converge from the south and west during the day Wed, with the dreariest and wettest day being Thursday as a soaking rain looks likely with an occluded front moving through. The synoptic system will be lifting out by Friday, allowing conditions to slowly improve from the SW. Light showers or drizzle may linger as weak surface ridge tries to work in under retreating cool pool aloft. Sat should bring a return of brighter skies, albeit briefly, because clouds increase for the second half of the weekend along an old and sharpening frontal boundary extending from the mid atlantic region westward into the Ohio Valley. This boundary will bring potential for return of showers by Sun and Mon. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Just an isolated SHRA is poss for the next few hours in the E, esp MDT and LNS. The west is all VFR and UNV and IPT will be there within an hour or two. Wind behind the front is not strong nor really gusty without much upper support/dynamics. Wind will never really go westerly at MDT and LNS before nightfall. Around sunset, all locations should go light and variable with the winds, and VFR will last into Tues aftn. The only tricky part to the forecast is the possibility of very light rain - perhaps not even reducing the cigs below VFR - over the SErn terminals during the daytime on Tues. The NAM is totally dry but does make some VFR clouds over all the area. At this point, the best course is to keep it dry and VFR since the impacts would be very very minor even if it does rain. .OUTLOOK... Wed...SCT SH/TSRA poss W late. VFR otherwise. Wed night-Thur...widespread SH/TSRA and low cigs. Thur night-Fri...MVFR cigs/SHRA NW. VFR SE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Lambert/RXR AVIATION...Dangelo

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