Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 222029 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 429 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue tonight with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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20z water vapor loop shows upper low ovr northern virginia. On radar, light stratiform rain continues to fall across most of central and southern Pa within region of lg scale forcing north of upper low. On the nw periphery of upper low, there has been enough diurnal heating/destabilization to support sct tsra ovr parts of Warren/Mckean counties. Even some pea sized hail reported arnd 3pm in Warren. The HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend, which has performed quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern over the past 24 hours, supports max POPs early tonight over the southwest and south central zones before a gradual north to south drying trend overnight, as upper low sinks south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Model agreement is good with respect to additional shortwave energy being absorbed into upper level trough crossing the Mid Atlantic piedmont tonight and eventually closing off as it starts to move northeastward along/off the coast on Monday. Expect an axis of scattered showers with a few embedded tstms to develop within a low level convergence axis on the backside of the closed low...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours when daytime heating combined with cool temps aloft/steep mid level lapse rates will result in marginal instability. HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southeast 1/2 of the area with the highest pcpn probs through 24/00z followed by a decreasing/drying trend into Monday night and Tuesday morning. Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Extended guidance is trending close to recent solutions..with the much heralded advertisement of eastern ridge/western trough holding sway and bringing the arrival of summer like temperatures and humidity. Slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early in the period and will still keep the mention of a shower possible overmainly eastern areas into Tuesday. By Wednesday... central PA will bein favorable position for drying and arrival of risingheights...delivering quite warm conditions as subtropical ridgestarts to influence our weather. The area remains susceptible tomainly afternoon isolated convection on Thu-Fri as zonal WSW flow in ring of fire regime could focus some activity. However... strong amplification of the upper ridge into central and eastern PA Sat and Sun should put a cap on convective chances for a time. The picture becomes muddled by late Sunday and Monday as rex blocking along the eastern seaboard may deliver a rich fetch of tropical moisture towards the mid atlantic and points northward by that time...at least introducing a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms at that time (Mon-Tue). Northern stream energy sliding across the eastern GLAKS could combine with this moisture flow Mon night and Tuesday for more focused activity.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... For the 22/18z TAFs through 23/18z | Issued 235pm EDT 5/22/16 The focus for restrictions will continue to be in the southwest airspace with ocnl IFR cigs at JST. Radar shows steadier light in this area with isold-sct shower activity across the remainder of the area. Still favoring VFR to MVFR conditions prevailing at most terminals tonight into Monday morning with a gradual north to south drying pcpn trend. OUTLOOK...Monday-Friday 5/23-5/27 Mon...Areas of IFR/MVFR cigs early southern 1/2. Sct showers with isold tstm impacts possible sern 1/2 18-24z. Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected. Thu-Fri...Chance of P.M. showers/tstms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...DeVoir/La Corte AVIATION...Steinbugl

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