Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 201515 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1115 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BEFORE RE- FORMING OFF THE COAST. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC LOW OR LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IN NRN INDIANA. LOCALLY...LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND PER LATEST OBS AND WEBCAMS. TEMPS MAY BE HELD DOWN JUST A DEG OR TWO FROM CURR MAXES. WILL CONTINUE TO PUT THE MEASURABLE PRECIP OFF FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A PARENT SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS TONIGHT AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT STARTS TAKING PLACE OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ARE JUXTAPOSED WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE A TAD MILDER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...AND A TAD COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BETWEEN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA. EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING UP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN LONG TERM...DANGELO AVIATION...DANGELO/TYBURSKI

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