Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 282316 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 716 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... DIURNAL CU FADING FAST AS EVENING ARRIVES. SKY COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE WE SAW TUES MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W. SUN...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...EVANEGO AVIATION...LA CORTE

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