Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 030612 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 212 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE FAR WRN ZONES GIVEN RECENT/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL DATA. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA AT 06Z /ESP NORTH OF I-80/. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL AND FOG TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT TOWARD DAWN. KBFD ALREADY REPORTING FOG AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR THRU ARND 13Z. KAOO HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING IFR VSBYS TOWARD DAWN DUE TO WET GROUND FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO IMPLIES A LIKELY PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT BTWN 09Z-13Z. ELSEWHERE...ODDS OF SIG RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LOW...ESP AT KJST AND KMDT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN 18Z-00Z. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...ESP AT KBFD. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.