Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 270259
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1059 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016
A cold front with a line of showers will sweep through the region
overnight. A developing deep cut-off low will bring cool cloudy
weather into the region late Wednesday and into early this
weekend. The deep cold air should trigger showers Thursday through
most of the coming weekend before it slowly begins to lift out.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Satellite continues to show cold front moving in Eastern Ohio and
continues to progress eastward. Latest radar shows bands of
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving to the northeast.
Expect showers through Eastern PA from 03Z to 06Z.
HRRR and GEFS has bands dissipating later tonight and as cold air
moves in skies should clear with Dry air behind front. Do not
expect lingering low clouds and fog behind this front.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Sunny breezy day some clouds especially in mountains. Probably the
best day of the week. No real anticyclone behind front due to
building trough to our west and wave along the coast.
But -1sigma PW and 6-10C 850 mb temperatures imply a pleasant
early autumn day. It could be breezy a few hours after sunrise and
the winds should diminish in the late afternoon.
My bet is the statewide is the best day of the week as the cut-off
is going to make things ugly by Wed-Thu.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Big change in the weather pattern will set up with a long wave
trough and a cut off low dropping down over the Eastern U.S. and
several days with rain in the forecast.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will see some drying and
seasonable temperatures behind the cold front. But a large upper
level low is dropping southeast across the Great Lake Region. By
Wed afternoon the upper low is over Ohio and moisture is being
pulled back north along the Eastern Coast into PA. Chances for
rain showers will increase Wed afternoon with periods of rain
showers likely Wed night into Thurs night as the low continues
south into Western VA. Friday the low begins to shift back to the
northwest continuing the wet pattern into Saturday. Models hint
that Central PA may be dry slotted for a bit friday afternoon and
night. Upper low begins to lift northeast Saturday into Monday
with gradually decreasing POPs. Lower Susq will be driest over the
weekend and dry Monday with increasing chances farther north
across the higher terrain of the northern tier where chances will
linger into Monday morning. Temperatures will be a little milder
at night but cooler during the day with clouds and periods of
showers thereby averaging around normal.
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
South-southeasterly flow ahead of a cold front has brought
widespread MVFR with areas of IFR to the region. Expect continued
reduced conditions throughout the evening and into the overnight
before drier air begins moving in behind the cold front Tuesday
morning. Any improving conditions after midnight will probably
just set the stage for the development of fog so earlier confidence
in clearing is now not so high.
Tuesday will start with most areas still experiencing MVFR/IFR,
but drier air on a gusty NW breeze will lead to rapidly improving
conditions in the few hours just after sunrise.
Wed should be the last good VFR day before more showery and
cloudy conditions develop later in the week into the weekend with
widespread reduced conditions likely.
Wed...Showers/cig reductions possible late.
Thu-Sat...Sct showers/cig reductions possible, esp w mountains.