-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 160059
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
859 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
WEST...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED
BY FAIR...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A POTENT
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS PRECIP CONTINUING TO STREAM NNE...AFFECTING MAINLY MY
SERN ZONES. ASOS REPORTS SHOW RAIN FALLING...BUT PUBLIC REPORTS
INDICATE THAT SOME SLEET AND WET SNOW IS MIXING IN. OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WE ARE SEEING MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORT RANGE MESO-MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS LITTLE MORE THAN A
FEW STRAY FLURRIES REMAINING BY 9 OR 10PM. WHILE THERE COULD BE A
SLUSHY COATING OVER THE RIDGES...MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH ALL AREAS BEING BELOW
FREEZING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY REMAINING PUDDLES OR
WET PAVEMENT COULD FREEZE UP AND CAUSE LOCALIZED SLIPPERY TRAVEL.

THE NW WIND AND GUSTS WILL PEAK EARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
DEEPENS IN COMBINATION WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z.

CLOUDS WILL OF COURSE LINGER OFF LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE NRN MTS
EARLY TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS EARLY WED ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE NEAR...OR EVEN SEVERAL
DEG F BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR
SPECIFIC RECORDS AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE CLEARING AND SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE 20S.
EVEN THE SE WILL GET INT THE M20S - EVEN WITH A 10-15KT NWRLY WIND
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. A FREEZE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES WHICH HAVE JUST PASSED THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN DATE OF LAST SPRING FREEZE...AND A FREEZE
WATCH WAS RECENTLY POSTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME SE
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A MAINLY SUNNY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AVERAGE MINUS 8-12...MAXS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STG RIDGING WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM
STG HP CELL CENTERED OVER MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
AGAIN WED NGT INTO AM THURS...AND THEREFORE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THE SERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE EASTERLY MARITIME LLVL FLOW WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
SERN ZONES.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRI-SAT WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN OVER THE NW
1/3 OF THE CWA. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS IDEA BUT TIMING
DIFFS MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE REAMPLIFYING UPSTREAM...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED ALONG THE WEST COAST...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE- AVG 500MB RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE NERN CONUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE PCPN PATTERN DUE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE LW FLOW...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-MEDIUM CHC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN THE OUTER
PERIODS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LKLY STILL AVG
BELOW LATE APRIL CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS CENTRAL PA...SNOW BANDS IN ITS WAKE
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. MVFR CIGS ADN VSBYS FROM SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING. BFD HAS LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTERMITTENLY THROUGH 03Z.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AT
THE LATEST.

WED THRU FRI SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WET
WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT.

OUTLOOK...
.WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR.
.SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN /AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WILL CHALLENGE RECORD
LOWS. BELOW ARE SELECTED RECORDS FROM AROUND THE AREA.

AOO... WEDNESDAY 24/1950/... THURSDAY 23/1980/
BFD... WEDNESDAY 18/1980/... THURSDAY 16/1983/
IPT... WEDNESDAY 20/1943/... THURSDAY 25/1904/
MDT... WEDNESDAY 25/1943/... THURSDAY 29/1980/

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-063>066.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
CLIMATE...