Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230918 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 518 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTC COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TEMPS FLUCTUATED FOR A BRIEF TIME AT A FEW SITES AS A BRIEF MOVEMENT OF AIR STIRRED IT BACK UP. HOWEVER...IT IS BACK TO VERY COLD IN THE NORTH. BFD IS 29F AT 5 AM...AND SOME M20S ARE SEEN IN THE MESO OBS IN COUDERSPORT AND JOHNSONBURG. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN BEDFORD AND NOT TOO FAR TO THE SW OF STATE COLLEGE WHERE THE WIDE VALLEY WITH LARGE OPEN FIELDS MAKES FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER THE FROSTY START...IT SHOULD WARM UP VERY NICELY AS FULL LATE MAY SUNSHINE MIXES THINGS UP. MAXES WILL STILL END UP BELOW NORMALS - AND NOT MORE THAN A DEG OR TWO MILDER THAN YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN DIP TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CAPPED THE MINS THERE AT 33F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED FROST...BUT HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM A FREEZE WATCH. A SLIGHT WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND MAY KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE FZG. HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVY JUST YET...AND ALLOW THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AND AVIOD PERHAPS CONLICTING/CONFUSING HEADLINES FOR NOW AND AGAIN TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER THAN SUNDAY MORNING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO. OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDING SE FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PROVIDE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017-018-037-041-042. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-024>028- 033-034-045-046-049>053-058. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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