-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 081650
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1150 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS PENNSYLVANIA INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A LATE WINTER STORM FOR THE REGION.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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08/1700Z...MADE TWO MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. LOOK FOR AREA OF LGT SNOW
TO SPREAD EWD FROM NRN OH/LAKE ERIE INTO THE NW PLATEAU REGION
THIS AFTN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUM EXPECTED WITH SFC/BLYR TEMPS VERY
MARGINAL. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCR MAX TEMPS ACRS FAR S-CNTRL
AND SERN PA...THV CRACKED 50F LAST HOUR.

08/1430Z...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF THE LWR LKS
WITH RADAR SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF LGT/MIXED PCPN FALLING APART AS
IT DESCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. UPSTREAM OBS HAVE INDICATED LGT
RAIN/SNOW/UP WITH VISBYS MAINLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RAPID BLYR MIXING HAS SHOT THE TEMP UP 8-15F IN
THE LAST 60-90 MINUTES IN THE STATE COLLEGE AREA. SIMILAR TEMP SPIKE
OCCURRED LAST HOUR AT ALTOONA. TEMPS ARE STARTING TO MIX OUT ACRS
THE MID-LWR SUSQ VLYS WHERE SOME OF THE COLDEST READINGS /AROUND
20F/ WERE FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING AT THV/SEG.

MDL DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE LGT PCPN CONFINED TO NW
SXNS THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST...VERY CLOSE TO EARLY
MARCH CLIMO. SOUNDINGS/BLYR MIXING AND NO SNOW COVER PLUS DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FAVOR POTNLY HIGHER MAXES OVER THE SE...BUT INC CLOUDS MAY
TEMPER THIS. AT ANY RATE - MAY NEED TO INCREASE TEMPS WITH NEXT
UPDATE CLOSER INTO THE MID 50 RANGE FOR PLACES ALONG/S OF RT30 AND
I-81.

THE FRONT WILL SINK SWD TONIGHT WITH HIRES ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORING
THE BEST CHC FOR LGT RA/SN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. UPSLOPE COMPT
PROBABLY FAVORS THE LAURELS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. REGARDLESS ANY
PCPN WILL BE VERY LGT AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY
12Z SUN. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID TEENS NW TO AROUND FREEZING
IN THE FAR S-CNTRL/SERN ZONES.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR BUT COOLER AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVER AND OFF TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SOME 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...SOMETHING THAT HAS BECOME PRETTY NORMAL THIS LONG CHILLY
WINTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR MID WEEK. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPIT RATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH A LOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER TEXAS TO NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO BY EARLY MONDAY. AT THAT TIME WE ARE PROGGED TO STILL
BE UNDER FAST AND MAINLY FAIR NW FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
DEEP EASTERN CANADA LOW.

BY MIDWEEK DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE
EC DEVELOPING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WHICH RESULTS IN A
MORE IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WV AND VA ON A TRACK
TO THE NJ COAST. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FLATTER AND FURTHER
SOUTH...WHILE THE 00Z GEFS HAS A STRONGER LOW THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE
THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

IF THE ECMWF/GEFS SOLUTIONS END UP VERIFYING...A WIDESPREAD
WINTRY MIX LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OUTCOME AS INITIALLY MARGINALLY
COLD AIR CHILLS AND COLDER AIR GETS DRAGGED DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
IF THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION IS THE ONE THAT WORKS OUT...WE WILL
BE COOLER...BUT WITH LITTLE PRECIP OF CONSEQUENCE. STILL FAR TOO
EARLY TO SAY.

THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM STILL FAVORS A RIDGE
ALOFT OVER WESTERN NOAM...AND A TROUGH IN OUR PART OF THE WORLD.
SO IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR AN IMMINENT OR EXTENDED WARM UP...IT JUST
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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08/17Z..UPSTREAM OBS FAVOR LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS MOVG INTO NW/NRN SXNS
TDY ALONG WITH A BAND OF LGT RA/SN IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING SWD FROM THE LWR LKS. DOWNSLOPING W-NW FLOW FAVORS HIGHER
VFR CLOUD BASES ACRS CNTRL AND SERN TAFS. AS THE FRONT DROPS SWD
ACRS THE AIRSPACE TNT..LOW CIGS ARE LKLY TO INCR IN CVRG MAINLY
OVER WRN AND CNTRL AIRFIELDS. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY
SUN MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS -RA/SN SHOWERS PSBL NRN TIER.
TUE...LOW CIGS PSBL EARLY. RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS PSBL TUE NGT.
WED...RESTRICTIONS LKLY IN RAIN/SNOW.
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&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL