Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 171830 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 230 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level low pressure system will bring a few showers through late day before a large area of high pressure returns to dominate our weather for much of the upcoming work week. Temperatures this week will run well above average.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weak mid level low embedded within the larger scale upper ridge over the NERN US is bringing just enough modest ascent and weak instability to support some slow moving showers. The RAP shows the weak upper low will meander very slowly over eastern PA/NJ/NY right into the evening. Scattered slow moving showers will continue into the late afternoon before fading with the loss of heating. The broad ridge aloft will hold tough overnight bringing mainly dry weather, but with a tendency for valley fog to once again form late at night. Min temps will range from the upper 50s across the northern and western mountains to the lower and mid 60s in the metro areas of southeastern PA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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Monday will start off with the valley fog burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon. We still have some embedded cyclonic flow aloft embedded within the ridge so there could be a shower or two that will cook up with afternoon heating. Most locations will remain dry. High temps feature a very tight temp range in the Mid to Upper 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather. The ridge will be reinforced with Hurricane Jose forecast to remain far enough offshore to just bring some high clouds to the eastern half of the area. As Jose moves away heights will rise and this should further dry us out for the latter part of next week. The GEFS forecasts a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights by next Friday and Saturday which will translate to well above normal temps. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Most of the area has improved to VFR after earlier restrictions with fog and low ceilings. The exception is over the lower Susq where MVFR ceilings have been slow to break up. A weak mid level disturbance is triggering scattered showers that will continue into the late afternoon, before fading with the loss of heating this evening. These showers could bring brief reductions to any airport that tales a direct hit. VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate once again overnight with fog and low clouds bringing fairly widespread MVFR/IFR for a few hours either side of sunrise Monday. After early restrictions, Monday will be a virtual carbon copy of today with some afternoon showers possible in a few spots. .Outlook... Tue-Wed...Mainly dry with patchy morning fog. Otherwise primarily VFR conditions. Eastern areas may see NE winds 10-20 mph as main impacts from Jose remain off to our east. Thu-Fri...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Ross AVIATION...La Corte

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