-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 040322
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1022 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --
A 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
ALLOWING A WARM UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND ARCTIC AIR BEHIND HIT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN SHOULD TURN TO SNOW WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND SNOW BACK INTO OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH AND COLD AIR COULD
AFFECT OUR REGION LATER NEXT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM MOST AREAS ARE IN THE 30S. EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WITHOUT THE LOW CLOUDS COOLED VERY RAPIDLY SOME COLD SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY FELL BELOW FREEZING.

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD US FROM THE WEST AND
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. STILL SOME TRAPPED LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE NY BORDER.

RADAR AND SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IMPLIES CHANCE PASSING SHOWER AND
ISOLATED FZRA OR FZDZ NEAR NY BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE
OF MIDNIGHT. VERY LIGHT IF ANY.

PATCH FOG IS AN ISSUE TOO AND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM DAY TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 40
INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS MOVING INTO WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SO THE PLUME OF WARM AIR
SHOULD KEEP US WARM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT WILL BE RAIN. CHANCE OF RAIN CLIMBS
THURSDAY AND SHOULD PEAK ON FRIDAY.

BUT...ENSEMBLES SHOW COLD AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SO RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN NORTHWEST PA AND THE RAIN/SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION BOUNDARY
SHOULD SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WAS
MODEST WITH THE SNOW IN THE GRIDS...BUT SREF AND GEFS IMPLY 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW THIRD OR SO OF PA BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY.

MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES QPF SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AM.

DROPPED POPS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO -10 PERHAPS -12C SATURDAY WITH NW WINDS
IMPLYING SOME SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS PRONE TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS.


PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY....

WAS THINKING YESTERDAY THAT THE LATER PART OF SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE MAINLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...PERHAPS
SOME SLEET MIXED IN.

HOWEVER...LEFT A MIX IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BASED ON EC AND
OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WESTERN LOW PULLING IN A LOT OF WARMER
AIR...BEFORE ANY COASTAL TAKES OVER LATER MONDAY INTO TUE. NOT
REALLY SEEING MUCH FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUE...BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE...BUT DID GO LOW POPS FURTHER EAST...AS EC SHOWS WEAK
WAVES MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PA IS PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND
KEEPING SFC MOISTURE HIGH. THIS HAS LEAD TO REFORMATION OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBY FOG AND HAZE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
FOG MAY THICKEN ESP AT KBFD AND SUSQ RVR TAF SITES.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO WESTERN SECTIONS
/MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ WED MORNING AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN RAIN.

FRI...MVFR/CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT...NO SIG WX.

SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH CHC RA/SN

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER