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000
FXUS61 KCTP 171830
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
230 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

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A weak upper level low pressure system will bring a few showers
through late day before a large area of high pressure returns
to dominate our weather for much of the upcoming work week.
Temperatures this week will run well above average.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

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A weak mid level low embedded within the larger scale upper
ridge over the NERN US is bringing just enough modest ascent
and weak instability to support some slow moving showers.

The RAP shows the weak upper low will meander very slowly over
eastern PA/NJ/NY right into the evening. Scattered slow moving
showers will continue into the late afternoon before fading with
the loss of heating.

The broad ridge aloft will hold tough overnight bringing mainly
dry weather, but with a tendency for valley fog to once again
form late at night.

Min temps will range from the upper 50s across the northern and
western mountains to the lower and mid 60s in the metro areas
of southeastern PA.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

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Monday will start off with the valley fog burning off to a
partly-mostly sunny afternoon. We still have some embedded
cyclonic flow aloft embedded within the ridge so there could be
a shower or two that will cook up with afternoon heating. Most
locations will remain dry.

High temps feature a very tight temp range in the Mid to Upper
70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our
weather. The ridge will be reinforced with Hurricane Jose
forecast to remain far enough offshore to just bring some high
clouds to the eastern half of the area. As Jose moves away
heights will rise and this should further dry us out for the
latter part of next week. The GEFS forecasts a closed 5880 m
ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights by next
Friday and Saturday which will translate to well above normal
temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

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Most of the area has improved to VFR after earlier restrictions
with fog and low ceilings. The exception is over the lower Susq
where MVFR ceilings have been slow to break up.

A weak mid level disturbance is triggering scattered showers
that will continue into the late afternoon, before fading with
the loss of heating this evening. These showers could bring
brief reductions to any airport that tales a direct hit.

VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate once again overnight
with fog and low clouds bringing fairly widespread MVFR/IFR for
a few hours either side of sunrise Monday.

After early restrictions, Monday will be a virtual carbon copy
of today with some afternoon showers possible in a few spots.

.Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly dry with patchy morning fog. Otherwise
primarily VFR conditions. Eastern areas may see NE winds 10-20
mph as main impacts from Jose remain off to our east.

Thu-Fri...No sig wx.
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&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Ross
AVIATION...La Corte