Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221429 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1029 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of Pennsylvania through Monday. High pressure will build southeast into the region for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MCS approaching CWA. Strongest core will move south of CWA though will see a quick hitting line of storms for southern zones in next couple hours. Behind this expect more storms to develop across the area. Where the strongest storms develop is uncertain and each run of the HRRR shifts the location of the storms to different spots across the central and southern CWA. Further north thunderstorms are also possible though likely not severe. Current forecast has this well covered and will make only minor changes. FFG numbers indicates some pockets of wetter ground across central Pa, which could be susceptible to flooding today. NCAR ensemble indicates the possibility of localized amounts in excess of 3 inches possible across the central and south central mountains by this evening. At this point, while a flash flooding is possible in the strongest storms, will not issue a FF watch. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A second round of strong to severe convection is possible across the southern half of the forecast area this evening, as strong low level jet and plume of anomalous PWATs works through the area. Bulk of model data then indicates a dwindling chance of showers/storms from north to south overnight. Favorable scenario for additional severe weather across central Pa Sunday afternoon, as the region will be within warm sector south of anomalous surface low tracking eastward along the PA/NY border. Moderate CAPES and moderate westerly flow aloft, combined with large scale forcing ahead of approaching upper trough, should support widespread convection by afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some uncertainty continues with regards to timing of upper trough passage early next week, but additional showers/storms appear likely Monday, especially over northern Pa. A period of dry and cooler weather appears very likely by midweek, as upper trough axis finally passes east of Pa and surface high builds into the area. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Approaching warm frontal boundary which will be the catalyst for shower and thunderstorm development around midday in the west spreading eastward in the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will be most numerous south of I-80 with intermittent restrictions expected into early evening Thunderstorm coverage will diminish but convection will linger over the SE into the overnight. In addition, restrictions will develop over NW half of area. Another round of convection driven by an upper trough will begin to move into western areas around sunrise Sun, which will spread across central PA during the day bringing another period of intermittent restrictions. .OUTLOOK... Sun...AM restrictions likely NW half. TSRA/SHRA likely with intermittent impacts. Sun night...Cig restrictions likely. Scattered TSRA/SHRA. Mon...AM restrictions likely. Scattered TSRA. Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog. Otherwise no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Ross/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner AVIATION...RXR

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