-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 172019
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
419 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS WARM AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO THE EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC TROUGH/FRONT NOW LIT UP ALONG THE NRN TIER BUT IT IS WORKING
INTO VERY DRY AIR - NEAR 50F DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL MTS. THE
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...BUT THEY ARE
VERTICALLY CHALLENGED WITHOUT MOISTURE TO FUEL THEM AND MAKE THEM
GROW TALL ENOUGH TO GLACIATE AND PRODUCE LIGHTNING. WINDS COULD
GUST INTO THE 30S...BUT NOT LIKELY ANY WORSE. BETTER DEWPOINTS
POOLING UP OVER NERN OH ATTM...AND SH/TSRA THERE CURRENTLY COULD
SLIDE INTO WRN PA LATER THIS EVENING. HEAT AND MUCH BETTER
DEWPOINTS ALONG THE OLDER FRONT OVER THE SRN TIER ALSO FIRING A
FEW SHRA. AGAIN...ISOLD T POSSIBLE...BUT NO WORRY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT STARTS AND
STABILIZATION OCCURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT - THIS ONE WITH REAL
DRY AIR BEHIND IT - LURKS JUST S OF LAKE ONTARIO AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL ALSO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANY BREAK IN RADAR ECHOES ON THE KCCX SCOPE WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY
A FEW HOURS...AS MORE FORCING SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEET UP WITH THE THIRD FRONT TO PRODUCE SCT
SHRA LATER TONIGHT IN THE N/W. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHC RANGE
FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAIN/THIRD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREK THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL MAKE THE POPS MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD/HIGHER. PWATS REACH NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF ON
TUES...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH SLOWLY MOVING CELLS TO MAKE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT FFG VERY HIGH AND THREAT FOR FLOODING
VERY LOW. THIS FRONT...TOO...MAY WASH OUT AS IT REACHES THE SRN
BORDER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR MID/LATE WEEK. HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
NOTICABLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH DAILY TSTM CHANCES.

AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES...
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH BROAD TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SCT TSTMS IN FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUE EVE.

THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNINGS OF A PATTERN
CHANGE. BEHIND IT FOR WED...WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH W-E RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING OVER PA ON THURSDAY. WE/LL SEE A FEW CHILLIER
NIGHTS...ESP ACROSS THE NORTH /THE COLDEST BEING WED NIGHT WITH
READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 40S NORTH OF I-80/. TEMPS MILDER ACROSS
THE SOUTH WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOUGHER TO SCOUR OUT.

AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIP TO THE SE...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THU. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE THU AND FRI...BUT
WEAKENING CAP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LATE
DAY TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HALF.

LARGER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD INTO OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT EASTWARD
AROUND TOP OF THE RIDGE...ARRIVING IN PA ON SAT AND PERSISTING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...KICKING OFF DAILY SCT TSTMS /MAINLY NW HALF/. WE/LL
ALSO LIKELY SEE DECAYING MCS/S TRYING TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL NEXT
FRONT COMES THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT NUMBER 1 IS STILL OVER THE SERN COS AND PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR SH/TSRA THERE. THESE SHOULD WANE AS THE HEATING WANES...BUT
COULD BRING VISBYS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AT LNS/MDT.

ANOTHER FRONT IS DROPPING THRU THE NRN MTS AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE CENTRAL MTS AND MID SUSQ SHORTLY. MUCH BETTER COVERAGE ALONG
THAT FRONT - BUT IT IS MOVING INTO VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER UNV/AOO.
WILL KEEP MENTIONS OF SHOWERS IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS UPSTREAM
STORMS OVER NERN OH WILL MOST LIKELY SLIDE INTO WRN PA AS WELL.

MORE FORCING COMES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
PAIRS UP WITH YET ANOTHER FRONT - WHICH HAS THE BEST DRYING BEHIND
IT. THIS FRONT IS ALREADY INTO WRN NY STATE BUT NOT MOVING VERY
MUCH AT ALL. WILL THEREFORE BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS BACK INTO BFD
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING SHOWERS FOR THE
DAYTIME ON TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING. BUT
SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THAT REAL DRY AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES AND CALM AIR WILL ALLOW FOG
TO FORM...PERHAPS GOING IFR IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESP THOSE
WHICH PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SCT TSRA POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO