Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 150234 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1034 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID- WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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MILD AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT...BUT A LULL IN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS IS LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERSFOR THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER CENTRAL PA. SLOW MOVING/TEMPORARILY STALLING FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SSW THROUGH THE FINGERLAKES TO SOUTHEAST OHIO AT THIS HOUR. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS LIES BETWEEN IT AND THE UPSTREAM LEADING SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THAT 5H TROF DIGS EASTWARD...THE FRONT WILL SIT OVER WESTERN PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WAITING FOR FURTHER DIRECTION. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL PA AND PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD STILL SEE TIMES OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NUDGED TEMPS A BIT AS IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN MILDER MIN READINGS OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...WITH MINS THERE DIPPING TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER WARREN AND WESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH... MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S FROM THE ENDLESS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE SAME BIG TEMP BUST POTENTIAL OF TONIGHT. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS SHOW A VERY TIGHT PACKING OF THE COLD AIR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO SMALL TIMING PROBLEMS WILL MEAN RELATIVELY BIG TEMP SWINGS AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST. A COUPLE OF OTHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND TO FORM...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE ON THE COLD AIR SIDE OF THE WAVY COLD FRONT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SWINGS THROUGH...WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST THESE FRONTS TAKE ON STRONG ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION AND LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS PROGGED 850-500MB WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 45-60KT MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THEN THE...SNOW...YUK! COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH/CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I AM THINKING THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MEANING THE CHANGE- OVER WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART WHICH IS USUALLY VITAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A COATING TO A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND ROAD CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS POINT...BUT THE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN OUR HWO. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH THE GROWING SEASON STARTING ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 15TH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY...HAVE COORDINATED WITH LWX/PHI ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONCERN IS FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES /25-30F/ ADVERSELY IMPACTING EARLY-BLOOMING/SENSITIVE VEGETATION. IT IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS..BUT NONETHELESS PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT EARLY-SEASON PLANTS AND CROPS. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE FOR WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS...IN A MORE TYPICAL FROST/FREEZE REGIME WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT/VRB WINDS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SET UP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MARITIME REGIME POSSIBLY ADVECTING LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ INTO THE SERN ZONES. MORE UNSETTLED WX APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS THURS-MON...BUT LKLY STILL AVG BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS PA OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHRA CONTINUING TO AFFECT CENTRAL PA. LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN HAS ARRIVED WILL SEE CIGS QUICKLY FALL INTO IFR RANGE AND STAY THERE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AT WESTERN AIRFIELDS /KJST KBFD/...AND BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN IN THE EAST /KIPT KMDT KLNS/. VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE ENDING LATE TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT. OUTLOOK... .TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS...ENDING AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS. .WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR. .SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...EVANEGO

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