Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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710 FXUS61 KCTP 022145 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 545 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVERHEAD WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST PA AND MD THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP OVER SOUTHERN PA...AND SOME COULD MAKE GUSTY WINDS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ROLLING UP THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ALONG THE OLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... CLEARING GETS FILLED IN WITH DIURNAL CU QUICKLY AS IT OCCURS. FRONT APPEARS TO BE INTO KJST/KSEG AND STILL MOVING S. IT MAY STALL AS IT REACHES SE PA. SO FAR NO DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY THE EARLIER CAP AND THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE 5-10KFT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE POSS OF SH/TSRA IS THERE FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE S. THE DRY AIR AND CLEARING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO GET INTO THE 70S IN THE SW/SC AND THE ACTIVE CLEARING IN THE SE WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 50S TO POP UP INTO THE 60S AND L70S THERE TOO. AS WE LOSE HEATING...ANY SH/TSRA SHOULD DIE. BUT THE ENERGY DRIVING THE STORMS OVER KY WILL BE CROSSING WV/VA AND BRING A GOOD AREA OF LIFT INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THUS...MORE RAIN/STORMS ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD RAIN/STORMS INTO THE SE THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST WILL BE IN THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE MODEL QPF IS IN THE 0.5 TO 1 INCH RANGE. DESPITE OUR VERY RECENT WET SPELL..THIS SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY WORRIES FOR FLOODING. POPS WILL TAPER OFF TO LITTLE OR NIL NW OF UNV-IPT. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE WAVE WILL BE PAST US BY SUNRISE TUES. HOWEVER...PRESSURE WILL LOWER OVER THE ALLEGHENIES DURING THE DAY AS HEATING AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT. SOME SCT SHRA WILL POP OVER THE HIGHER HILLS AFTER MORNING MIXING LIFTS THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE POPS LOWER IN THE E AND HIGHER IN THE W. TEMPS TUES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND THUS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL PULL OUT LATE TUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT. I DID LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT...AND DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER WITH POPS...GIVEN THAT A WEAK HIGH TRYS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR WED INTO SUN. I JUST MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND A DEEP UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE TN VLY ON THU. THU LOOKS TO BE A WET DAY. THINK MUCH OF WED WILL STILL BE MAINLY DRY. THIS DEEP UPPER LVL LOW WAS HINTED AT BY SOME MODEL RUNS LAST WEEK. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SAT...AS THE UPPER LVL LOW DROPS SE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOWER CHC OF RAIN ON FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SE FROM EASTERN CANADA. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR BY TUE...BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY TO BE DRY. OVERALL A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN AS WE START OFF MAY HERE. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WARM FRONT BRIEFLY LIFTED INTO CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN...BRINGING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BACK SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE S APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN/LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PA TONIGHT. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BEST /LIKELY/ CHC OF IFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE STATE INCLUDING KMDT/KLNS. HOWEVER...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NE FLOW ASCENDING THE MTNS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE IFR CIGS FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS SE PA ARND NOON TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...LACK OF MIXING COULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS LINGERING INTO THE AFTN. A RETURN TO VFR CONDS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THRU EVENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. AFTN SHRA POSS...MAINLY E. THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD

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