Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020552 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 152 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWING A BATCH OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE LOWER GRT LKS. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN NO PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NEAR TERM MDLS SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY AM FCST. HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS...NOT EXPECTED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE L50S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L60S ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD TO SCT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DID SEND THE 03Z TAFS. BACKED OFF ON THE FOG SOME...GIVEN MID LVL CLDS UPSTREAM. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE. ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG EARLY JULY SUN. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN

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