Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281143 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 743 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM IS NEAR ELMIRA NY AS OF 4AM...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY NW FLOW BEHIND THE STORM. THE LAST OF THE WELL ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE JUST MOVING OUT OF MY EASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGEST SHORT TERM WEATHER PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN LINGERS/REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BE UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH. THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ALL SHOW PRECIP WRAPPING BACK INTO NWRN/NRN AREAS AND LINGERING AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS SUPPORTED BY THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP WHICH SHOWS A SHIELD OF RAIN PIVOTING AND TAKING AIM AT NWRN PA. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN LIFTING THE PRECIP NORTH TODAY...HINTING THAT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE STEADY RAIN OVER MY NORTHERN TIER. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW WILL HELP SUPPORT A GUSTY AND COOL NW FLOW AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ORIGINAL THINKING WAS THAT WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD GROW UP TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT I DOWNPLAYED THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN MEAGER LAPSE RATES WHICH NO DOUBT REFLECT MODEL EXPECTATIONS OF AMPLE CLOUDCOVER. IT WILL NOT FEEL LIKE A LATE JULY DAY WITH A GUSTY WIND AND TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A POTENT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS TODAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HEIGHTS RISE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT STILL SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED. WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...MARTIN

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