Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 310333 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1133 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES. WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS SUMMER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN. OUTLOOK... MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS. TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS. WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...COLBERT AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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