Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 080922 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 522 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM/DAY 1 PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTN/EVE. A SEASONABLY STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT PIVOTS EWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RELATIVELY DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REACH SRN ONT/WRN LAKE ERIE VCNTY BY 00Z WED. HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE AFTN AND PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT/FORCING. A BELT OF FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPORT 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND ML CAPES ARE PROGGED BTWN 1000-1500 J/KG. THE LATEST IR STLT/SFC OBS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN REALIZING THE INSTABILITY. STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS PRIMARY TSTM HAZARD...WITH SPC CONVECTIVE WIND PROBS INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF 30% IN THE SLGT RISK AREA COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA. ONE ITEM TO BE AWARE OF IS A RETREATING DIFFUSE WARM FRONT/YESTERDAYS WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH MAY ACT TO ENHANCE THE 0-3KM SRH AND RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE SUPERCELL HODOGRAPH. KEPT POPS IN THE LKLY RANGE THRU 06Z AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE TSTM INTENSITY/CVRG AND LCL SVR THREAT TRENDING LOWER AFTER DARK. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AMPLIFICATION OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH EARLY ON DAY 2 WILL PUSH THE LEADING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES. DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY/LOW CAPE...SCT SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS /NON-SVR/ WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTN GIVEN BROAD FORCING ALOFT AND LIFT ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT. PWS QUICKLY DROP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL BY WED EVE SO QPF AMTS SHOULD BE VERY LGT AND SPOTTY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA WED NGT ON THE FRONT-SIDE OF GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO PROVIDE A DRY AND COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT PD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 08/00Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A BRIEF FLATTENING/QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM DAYS 3-5 THU-SAT...BEFORE RAMPING UP THE AMPLITUDE INTO A HIGH MERIDIONAL FLOW EVENT WITH AN ANOMALOUS WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH CONFIG FOR DAYS 6-8+ SUN-TUE. HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND BY FRI WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO CLIMB WITH A STRAY/WEAKLY FORCED AFTN SHWR OR TSTM POSSIBLE. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SHOULD FOCUS ALONG A SUPPRESSED POLAR COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD SUN-TUE. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE HAS CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGEST RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE AT BFD AND IPT. GIVEN THAT THESE TWO TAF STIES RECEIVED THE MOST PRECIPITATION...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW...PERSISTENT IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE LIFTING/DISSIPATING BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z. ELSEWHERE IT REMAINS TO DRY WITH PERSISTENT WINDS SO VFR SHOULD DOMINATE. AFTER ANY RESTRICTING CIGS AND VSBYS LIFT VFR WILL DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL PA MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA TO CENTRAL PA LATE IN THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT JST. REDUCTIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSYTEM...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DOMINATE...THOUGH ANY AREAS THAT RECIEVE PRECIPITATION COULD SEE REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY JST AND BFD. OUTLOOK... WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS W MTNS. SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS SE. THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU

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