Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 141510 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1110 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ALL BUT THE TINIEST PORTION OF THE EARLIER LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVAPORATED...BUT A GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA HAS SEEN THE MOISTURE RE-APPEAR AS CUMULUS AS THE RESULTING SUNSHINE SELF- DESTRUCTED. NEVERTHELESS...ALL IS ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLY-NORMAL DAY. FALL IS IN THE AIR. A TREE OR TWO HINTING AT SOME COLOR. EVEN SAW A WOOLY WORM THE OTHER DAY NEXT TO MY CRYSTAL BALL...WEATHER ROCK...DICE...EIGHT- BALL AND ALMANAC. NOT ONE OF THEM SAID WHAT THE PERCENTAGE OF SKY COVER WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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INITIAL CLEARING OF THE CU FIELD TONIGHT MAY BE FOLLOWED BY TWO AREAS OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE ONE SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL BE INCHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE OTHER NOSING INTO THE SC MTNS LATER TONIGHT. NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY MAKES THE USUALY HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME FOG. HAVE YET TO DECIDE TO ADD ANY MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST INTO THE COLDEST AREAS JUST YET...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS. MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS LATE ON MONDAY...SPREADING THICK CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA. CONTINUED TO SHAVE POPS OFF FROM THE DAYLIGHT HRS IN THE NW...AND WILL LEAVE OTHER PLACES COMPLETELY DRY. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE NORTHWEST RIDGES TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST VALLEYS. BIGGEST IMPACT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE LONG-TERM WILL BE MON NIGHT. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON EVE WITH THE MAIN WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL. DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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IMPROVEMNT HAS ALLOWED EVERY AIR FIELD TO RISE ABOVE IFR. THE DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO BFD AND THE SRN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE MORE-CLEAR AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE AREA VERY EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS. OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT-THU...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DANGELO

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