Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220547 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 147 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cool temperatures and occasional showers will continue into the second half of the weekend. Rain chances will decrease early next week with improving weather conditions. Temperatures will trend noticeably warmer through mid week with most areas likely hitting 80 degrees for the first time this month heading into the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Late evening water vapor loop showing a well-defined mid lvl vort max over northwest Pa. Fairly widespread coverage of lgt rain/dz within assoc moist easterly flow across Central Pa at 02Z. Next shortwave will dive southward from eastern Ontario overnight, refocusing the best lg scale forcing and steadiest rain over the Central Mtns. Blend of latest near term models support up to an additional half inch of rain overnight across portions of the central and north central mtns, with significantly less across the Susq Valley. Thick cloud cover and low dwpt depressions indicate temps will remain basically steady overnight with lows in the u40s to l50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Additional/re-developing showers are likely on Sunday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough is reinforced by upstream height falls, eventually closing off as it drops southward from PA into the southern Mid-Atlantic. The relatively cold air aloft results in a gradual erosion of stability with mid level lapse rates forecast to rise to around 6-6.5 c/km. Latest mdl output suggests cloud cover and numerous showers will hold temps down across the central/south central mtns, diminishing the chc of tsra. However, still thinking there will be enough brightening and assoc destabilization across the nw counties to support a few pm tsra. Temperatures should get a little warmer than today, but still remain below normal for late May. Expect a decreasing trend in shower activity tomorrow night from northwest to southeast, as upper low sinks south of Pa. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... This forecast is headlined by a strong signal over the CONUS for large scale pattern shift by the middle to end of the coming week...finally signaling the arrival of near summer like weather across the region. How we get there remains to be seen...but today`s extended range EFS and deterministic models are in better agreement over this evolution...which will be welcome news for many should it hold sway heading into the upcoming holiday weekend. Evolution of the slowly filling upper low will be the main focus early in the today`s guidance meanders the closed low from the mid Atlantic seaboard to southern New England from Monday to Wednesday. This will keep unsettled conditions over much of PA with at least a chance of showers invof the lifting upper low. Upper ridging is forecast to spread eastward from the Ohio Valley into western and central PA by Wednesday afternoon...bringing an end to the blocky regime and a return to more seasonable conditions. Much warmer conds expected from Wednesday onward as a result. The zonal wsw flow may bring scattered showers or thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Friday before massive amplification of the upper ridge takes place Fri-Sat-Sun. GEFS and ECWMF support this evolution...and have followed previous shifts in soaring maxes well into the 80s from Wednesday onward. 5h 588 dm contour flirts with southeast PA by Sunday. This may be the first very warm and humid air mass of the season...with a strong ensemble signal for the pattern shift at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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06Z TAFS sent. Main change was to edge off the improvement some later today. Hard to see much change before Monday. Earlier discussion below. Vort max moving through western PA will keep rain showers across the area through Sunday morning. Expect IFR to MVFR conditions in ceilings,rain and fog overnight. Winds will be light and variable. As the upper low pressure moved southeast of the state on Sunday, expect rain showers to become more scattered with less of a reduction in flight category. However, conditions may remain MVR to IFR during the morning hours with gradual improvement through the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Monday-Thursday 5/23-5/26 Mon...VFR/MVFR with sct showers with isold P.M. tsra impacts possible ern 1/2. Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected. Thu...Slight chance of P.M. showers/tstms wrn 1/2.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...DeVoir AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl/Tyburski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.