-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 180547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT ACROSS UPSTATE
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SINKING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
OSCILLATING OVER PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL EXPECT A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE SHOWS THE AREA BEING COVERED OVER BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT WITH NO PRECIP UPSTREAM. NO REAL
CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM OF INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
REMAINING DRY THROUGH DAWN.

IF WE DO SEE ANY KIND OF PRECIP IT LOOKS TO BE LATE AND OVER SRN
AREAS AS THE SFC HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WE START TO DEVELOP A LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY SOME 3-5 DEG ON
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT OVER SRN
BORDER. THE DEGREE OF INFLUENCE THE FILLING UPPER LOW COMING OUT
OF THE PLAINS WILL HAVE IS A TOUGH CALL. HOWEVER...GENERAL MDL
PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHRA S OF THE STATE.
CERTAINLY THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP AND COULD HELP KEEP
TEMPS MILDER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH MINS IN THE N IN THE
M/U40S AND M50S. EXPECT LITTLE/NO WIND TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE WRN MTS FARTHER FROM THE AXIS OF THE
WEAKENING SFC RIDGE. THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN DOES BECOME MORE
E/SERLY LATER TONIGHT AND CERTAINLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP MAXES DOWN IN THE L70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO POP A FEW CU AGAIN ON
SAT...ESP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL START TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND WILL START TO BUILD UP LATER SAT NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MINS MILD. WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOW CHC FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AS THE MARITIME MSTR CLIMBS UPHILL SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHER
30-40 POPS S AND SLIGHT CHC N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SE FLOW WILL KEEP THE RISK OF LOWER CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LESS CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUE...AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE
TO THE SW...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WARMER TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO WED.

HPC HAS FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON WED...NOT ALL THAT CLEAR CUT.
FOR WED...DID UP POPS SOME...BUT LEFT TEMPS UP.

COMPLEX SITUATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A LOT OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THE LAST
FEW DAYS.

FOR NOW...DID NOT RUSH CLEARING TOO MUCH BEFORE NEXT FRIDAY.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THU NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...AND LOW TRIES TO CLOSE OFF. GUSTY
NE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS BY
FRIDAY...AS THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR WILL BE CENTRAL
CANADA...AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER THIS WEEK. A LOT DIFFERENT
THAN LAST YEAR...WHEN WE HAD HOT TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
18/06Z...
VFR FLYING WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT-BKN ALTO CU BASES AROUND 10KFT
AGL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE THIS AFTN AND DIRECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST/MARITIME AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BY TUESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IN LCL FLYING CONDS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...MVFR-IFR CIGS.
TUE- WED...VFR-MVFR WITH SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL