Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 010045 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 845 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL SUPPLY THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND LIFT TO FORM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. PRODUCTS UPDATED. WITH SE WINDS AT LOW LEVELS...THUS ISOLATED SEVERE STILL POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF UNV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE REGION ALONG AND TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE 80 UNTIL 3 AM WEDNESDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL SWING THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE AN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...STRONG LG SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA AS THIS FEATURE COMES THRU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. HAVE REDUCED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 15Z...AS LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. SPC MRGL RISK OF SVR WX ENCOMPASSES EASTERN PA...WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX ARND MIDDAY. PTSUNNY SKIES AND ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY. AS THE JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF PA...THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND TSRA SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT ANY WAVERING COULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO CREEP INTO PA. THE FLOW SHOULD SHFIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER FLOW FRIDAY. THE DRY MID LEVELS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE WEEKEND PRIMARILY DRY THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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STILL SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEN LOW CLDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z WED. OUTLOOK... THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

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