Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 131153 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 753 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID- TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY. SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY NEAR MID-WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... RADAR AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BLOSSOMING RAIN AREAS...LIGHT RAINFALL...OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE LAKES. THE ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS. A NOSE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER SOUTHWEST PA...WEST IF THE MOUNTAINS...AND COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE EAST IS MAINTAINING A GOOD OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY FOR THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE THIS AND INCREASE THE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A COLD CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... ALL MODELS SHOW THE RAIN AREA CONTINUING TO GET MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES THIS MORNING THEN SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING EASTERN AREAS. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE FAST MOVING. THE SREF SHOWS LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED RAIN OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 2 PM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF HOURS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. COOL DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW NORMAL. A DRY DAY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. IFR HAS SPREAD TO BFD...JST AND AOO WITH MVFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT LNS...WHERE THAT SHOULD GO TO MVFR SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. MON...NO SIG WX. MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. WED...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...GRUMM AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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