Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221020 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 620 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving storm system will keep it cool and unsettled into Monday. A ridge of high pressure will make a return to the eastern U.S. ushering warmer and eventually more humid conditions from mid week into the upcoming holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined circulation over Pa. Slow moving rain bands fit nicely under model diagnosed low-mid level frontogenetic forcing as the upper trough continues to deepen right overhead. Heights are forecast to continue lowering with the upper low made to close off this morning into the afternoon over central or southern Pa. It all points to continued cloudy-cool conditions with periods of rain and drizzle, improving later today from the north as the low drops due south into Va by evening. If we can manage any sunshine later today, mainly over northwestern areas, there could be a low topped thunderstorm given the cold air aloft and expectations of steepening mid level lapse rates on this northern and western edge of the deepest cloud cover. Another cool day in the 50s to lower 60s will continue the trend of a cold and wet May. We may be able to eat away at the below normal numbers by mid to late week, but so far it has not been a very nice May, the first month of what many consider the start of the traditional warm season. As the upper low heads toward bottoming out near Cape Hatteras late tonight and Monday morning, drier conditions will develop with the increasing distance from the main forcing mechanism. The best chance of rain will be early in the evening and over southern areas, with the chances diminishing the deeper into the overnight we get. Lows will average in the upper 40s to lower 50s where it stays cloudy. The far north will dip into the low to mid 40s under clearing skies. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... The growing expanse of the upper level cyclonic flow will help support weak large scale ascent. This along with cold air aloft will help erode stability during the time of max heating with model derived mid level lapse rates on the order of 6-7C/km. It will equate to showers and scattered thunderstorms becoming more numerous in the late morning and afternoon hours. Highs Monday will rebound into the 70s which will still be a little below normal in many areas, but definitely better than we have been experiencing the last couple of days. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended is advertising the development of a western trough and an eastern ridge by the middle of the upcoming week, finally signaling the arrival of summer-like temperatures and like it or not, humidity. Evolution of the slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early in the period and will keep the mention of a shower possible over eastern areas even into Tuesday. But by mid week the low will have given way to the first real surge in the subtropical ridge of the season with the NAEFS advertising above normal heights and temperatures from Wednesday right through the Memorial Day weekend. The broad wsw flow will also mean that remnant convection from Midwestern MCS activity will become a threat as it slides toward the nern U.S.. Timing at this range is impossible, but I`d expect the activity to be mainly diurnally driven, tending to fade during the evening and overnight. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Complex low pressure system dropping southward today will keep cloudy and wet conditions across the area. Looking at mainly mvfr and ifr conditions. As been the case overnight...a wide range of conditions will prevail. 09Z TAFS sent. Some improvement expected for Monday into Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Monday-Thursday 5/23-5/26 Mon...VFR/MVFR with sct showers with isold P.M. tsra impacts possible ern 1/2. Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected. Thu...Slight chance of P.M. showers/tstms wrn 1/2. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Martin

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