Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250607 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 107 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NEW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
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THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN PA AND OH LOOK VERY MUCH LIKE FLURRIES. THE REAL COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW GOING THROUGH DETROIT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE PICS BEFORE THE FRONT. SO...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR ADDITIONAL SHSN OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE KEEPING READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME OF THE AIRMASSES THAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. FOR EXAMPLE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AT BFD IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND -18 ON WEDNESDAY... AS OPPOSED TO -25 IN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. THIS ATMOSPHERE IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT... HOWEVER LAKE ERIE IS COMPLETELY FROZEN AND LAKE HURON IS MOSTLY FROZEN SO ANY LAKE RESPONSE WILL BE WEAK. WITH SOME UPSLOPE IN THE NW FLOW STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LINGERING OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON WEDNESDAY BUT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. MEANWHILE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH BROKEN CLOUD COVER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COLD WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR ZERO NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. NEXT MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF SHORE... BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. AGAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CLEAR WEATHER. LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTH. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED OR SURPASSED THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR NOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO THE 20S SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VERY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEAR TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH. AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS/ECMWF IS INDICATING A SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY... THEN MORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE SYSTEM EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS WARMER AIR MAY BE PULLED NORTHWARD IN ANY STRONGER SYSTEM THAT EVENTUALLY COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 06Z TAFS SENT. HARD TO SEE ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. BEST DYNAMICS LIFT TO THE NE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. NOT EXPECTING THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WE HAD THE OTHER SATURDAY OR LAST WED...WHEN WE HAD THE SQUALLS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS WITH SCT- BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS SWD INTO KJST TONIGHT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AT KBFD AND KJST... OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. OUTLOOK... THU-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED ATTM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...KBGM LONG TERM...KBGM AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN

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