Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 162048 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 448 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. A STRING OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... INVERSION LOWERING AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHWEST ARE DROPPING NEAR 40F AT 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER RAPIDLY AND MOST WILL BE GONE BY SUNSET. SOME MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE OFF THE LAKE AND KEEP SCT CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST. BUT LOWERING DEWPOINTS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND CALM AIR WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF. AFTER COLLABORATION DISCUSSIONS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...THE CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT/WED AM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO BE TOUGH TO PUSH DOWN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO FORM. ALL THESE SHOULD WORK AGAINST A WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL MENTION VALLEY FOG ALMOST EVERYWHERE AND ALSO KEEP JUST A LITTLE HINT OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS FOR THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD ON WED. DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE MORNING VALLEY FOG LIFTS AND COOL AIR ALOFT LEADS TO SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. ON THE WHOLE...A REALLY NICE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S ON THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS OF THE NW AND MID 70S IN THE LOWEST/URBAN LOCATIONS IN THE SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH...PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST ON THU. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THUS A MORE ROBUST CLOUD FIELD ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BROAD RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. FLATTENS AS IT WORKS EAST...WITH A STRENGTHENING BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CWA NORTH OF I-80 THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO TYPICALLY COLD RURAL LOCATIONS OF SCENT PENN...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS. THE HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES. RETURN FLOW BEGINS FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WEST WITH READINGS 5-8F WARMER. DRIER AIR AND DECOUPLED LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THE EAST COOLER...BUT STILL NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS THU NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SAT WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...AND SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. HEADING INTO SUNDAY...MODELS STILL AGREE UPON A DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND EVEN THOUGH GFS/ECMWF SETTLING IN ON TIMING...STRENGTH OF SYSTEM STILL BEING DEBATED WITH GFS BRINGING A MORE ROBUST SHOT OF PRECIP FOR LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER PA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NW/N LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO LIMIT SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TUE LOOKS CHILLIER AND DRY. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SCT-BKN CU WITH BASES BTWN 5-7KFT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS AT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE KJST AND KMDT...WHERE CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES RADIATION FOG IS LESS LIKELY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS AWAY ON WED...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU. DEWPOINTS ARE SO LOW THAT THEY WILL BE HIGH-BASED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...AM FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX. SUN...SCT SHRA POSS - MAINLY DRY CFROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.