Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 152356 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 656 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the New England coast today. A cold front will move through the state overnight followed by high pressure for Thursday and Friday. A new frontal system will move into the area Saturday with much colder and blustery conditions following for the end of the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... High to mid clouds will continue to spread east through the evening hours ahead of approaching cold front. Lower clouds will develop in the west by late evening as rain showers arrive there first. Model guidance shows best window for steadiest rain being from about 9PM to 3am with precipitation then tapering to scattered showers. Overnight lows will remain enough above freezing to preclude any precipitation-type issues. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Thursday will be a more or less typical cool season post cold frontal NW flow regime with plenty of clouds and scattered showers of rain or snow being mainly confined to our western and northern mountains. Highs will average near normal over the SE to between 5-10 deg colder than normal from the Laurels up into the NRN Mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The alternating pattern of highs and lows continues as the pattern remains progressive through the extended forecast. CAA ongoing Thu night as next high pressure ridge slides in from the west. Friday will be chilly (about 5F below normal), but mostly sunny skies and light winds will will balance it out. This will quickly be followed by a deepening storm system that will move through the eastern Great Lakes Saturday. A warm front-cold front combination will bring a period of rain to the area around sunrise Sat in the west and midday elsewhere. The rain tapers off to showers Saturday night and Sunday as robust cold air advection kicks in - turning any lingering showers over to snow overnight Sat night (as 850mb temps progged to quickly drop and fall below 0C by 06z/Sun). As the trough axis moves by, regime will shift to a NW flow winter pattern highlighted by downslope drying for most of the central and eastern zones, but giving the northwestern zones a high likelihood for the season`s first real lake effect snow showers starting later Sat night and continuing into Monday. A period of brisk winds will accompany the cold temperatures to end the weekend, as temperatures across the NW and Laurels will not move much on Sunday. High pressure centered to our south will influence the weather to start Thanksgiving week, bringing a couple of dry days. Temperatures begin to modify Tuesday with a SW flow expected to develop. Model spread increases as weaker disturbances slide through a trough centered over the Great Lakes, decreasing forecast confidence heading toward Thanksgiving, but potential for weak waves to impact mainly NW half of CWA could bring chances for light snow during this time.
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A weakening frontal rain band will move west-east through the airspace 00-05z with little to no impact on terminal visbys. Ceilings trend will be lower from VFR to MVFR before westerly flow pattern brings improving conditions to the eastern 2/3 of the airspace. Progressively colder air combined with increasingly northwest flow should maintain MVFR/IFR conditions at KBFD/KJST with rain and snow showers at times through Thursday. Expect surface wind gusts 270-300 degrees 20-30kts terminal-wise by Thursday afternoon. High pressure building into the area will decrease winds Thursday night but may trap low clouds over parts of the western airspace. Outlook... Fri...MVFR cigs possible early western 1/3 otherwise VFR. Sat...Strong FROPA. LLWS. Showers ending as shsn NW. Gusty winds shifting 240 to 300 degrees. Sun...MVFR/IFR in shsn NW. MVFR to low VFR central and east. Gusty winds 270-300 degrees. Mon...No sig weather expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...La Corte/Gartner SHORT TERM...La Corte/Gartner LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Steinbugl is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.