Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280922 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 522 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will move along or just south of the Mason-Dixon line late tonight and Tuesday. High pressure will build down out of southern Canada and bring cooler and drier weather for Wednesday and Thursday. A new storm system will approach for the end of this week with the potential for more inclement weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Isolated to scattered showers extend from the Northwest Mountains eastward to the Pocono Plateau early this morning, with the most persistent showers located over the Northwest Mountains in the vicinity of 850-700 frgn forcing. Farther south...isolated showers and thunderstorms are tracking along the PA/MD border and more numerous showers upstream will push into the Laurel Highlands by dawn. Showers will increase from southwest to northeast today as wave of low pressure tracks first into southwest PA then propogates ESE to the Chesapeake Bay region by tonight. A cool, rainy day appears likely across the Northwest Mountains where frgn forcing is most persistent throughout the day. This will keep highs in the mid to upper 50s. Farther south sct to nmrs showers are expected across the central and south central portions of the commonwealth. Thin breaks in the overcast will allow temps to range generally in the lower 60s. Along the southern tier, readings will range from the upper 60s to perhaps the low 70s if warm sector manages to lift north of the PA/MD border. The guidance still continues to show the development of some instability over southern areas by afternoon, and have maintained slgt chc thunder there.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Showers will be on the decrease this evening as the low exits off of the mid Atlantic coast. Slightly cooler and drier air will overspread the region overnight...but there may be areas of fog due to the widespread daytime rainfall. Mins will range from the lower 30s north to the mid 40s south. Wednesday should be a relatively nice day (though with some mdt northerly wind gusts at times, as high pressure builds in from the northwest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The dry air and high pressure are in all of the most recent guidance, implying Wed ngt and Thursday will remain dry and pleasant. High pressure, dry air, and normal to slightly below normal 850 hPa and 925 hPa temperatures imply near normal daytime highs. Most of the 26/00-06Z U.S. and int`l model guidance (and EFS) indicates more of southern...shearing storm track for late in the week...thanks to a stronger and more wwd position of a deep nrn stream vortex across the Canadian Maritimes. The trend of the big model discrepancy for late this week and this weekend (between the GFS and EC over the past several days) has trended toward the GFS and its ENS members with southern stream energy and its moisture being prevented from amplifying with an associated storm track to our west. Rather, what we see is a shift of the primary southern stream sfc low track to our south as the potent midweek southern stream sfc/upper low (that will be trying to take the turn northeast across the Mid Miss Valley twd the Great Lakes) encounters great resistance from the notably stronger WNW upper jet core defining the northern stream that will be situated from the Upper Glakes to the Mid Atl Coast. With this type of consensus storm track, pops will be somewhat less for Friday and Saturday (compared to a heavily weighted EC/ECENS solution) and limited to mainly the southern half of PA where some rain (or even an elevation-dependent rain/wet snow mix) with expansive cooler and drier air north of PA. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 28/06Z TAFs maintained continuity with lowering cig/vis trend this morning. Expect coverage of rain showers to increase through the first half of the period before tapering off from NW to SE into tonight. Outlook... Wed...A.M. restrictions; becoming VFR. Thu...VFR/No sig wx. Thu Night-Fri...Sub-VFR restrictions/rain likely. Sat...Gradually improving conditions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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