Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 222140 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 540 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SWINGING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN NEWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK. CURRENT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP THICKEN CLOUD COVER THAT HAD BEEN ABLE TO THIN SOME EARLY THIS AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AT A MINIMUM WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH. ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS. THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN PA. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA POSS ERN THIRD. SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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