Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 210023 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 823 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST-SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT TONIGHT. A WEAKENING LINE IN EASTERN WARREN ENTERING MCKEAN COUNTY WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY FADE AWAY NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BRING THUNDER INTO ELK COUNTY BEFORE 830 PM. ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER TIOGA COUNTY AND NORTHERN LYCOMING COUNTY ARE THE MOST ORGANIZED. CAMS SHOWS MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WEAKENING AND FADING AWAY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS SO KEPT LOWERING POPS AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. CAMS ALSO SHOW A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION RANDOMLY IN CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. NOTHING OF NOTE. SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. PERHAPS PATCHY DENSE FOG IN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... OUR PW VALUES ARE LOW IN THE MORNING AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE CAPE IN MOST MODELS COMES UP INTO THE 600 TO 1800JKG-1 RANGE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 3KM HRRR SEEMS TO THINK THAT THE CONVECTION OVER IL/WI WILL ORGANIZE AND BE IN EAST/SE OHIO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IMPLIES THAT NO SHORT WAVES OR MCV ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. THUS...THE SHOWERS TOMORROW SHOULD BE LINKED TO THE RETURN FLOW AND INSOLATION. OPTIMISTIC IT COULD BE A RAINFREE MORNING. SREF AND OTHER MODELS SEEM TO IMPLY THIS WITH MORE MEMBERS WITH RAIN LATER IN DAY. IMPLIED LULL IS IN THE 09 TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CURRENT MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS US IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE THIS POSSIBILITY THOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE OF FRIDAY COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION. GEFS IS SHOWING PWAT ANOMALIES ON SATURDAY AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. CURRENT SET UP FOCUSES THREAT ON WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA...WHERE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE MAY BE ISSUES WITH AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DID NOT CHANGE A LOT ON THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE FROM THE EARLIER SET. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW NEAR BFD. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE EAST INTO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAIN ISSUE FOR AVN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND HIGH BLYR MSTR/SFC DEWPOINTS. FOR THIS...WENT CLOSE TO EARLIER FCST. DID LOWER CIGS IN SOME CASES. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND TIMING FROM LAST NIGHT. FOR THU...EXPECT LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS THE WIND SHIFT LINE AND DYNAMICS SHIFT EASTWARD. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.