Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260025 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 825 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will result in another cool night across the Keystone state. Low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes on Monday, and push a cold front through the region by Tuesday morning. The forecast becomes less certain for the rest of the week as a cut off low forms over the eastern United States. Cooler and at times wet weather will prevail for the later part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Skies are mainly clear but for some thin high clouds. Another night of decent radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the 40-s in most locations. The redevelopment of some low clouds up into southwestern areas should help keep lows in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... With increasing clouds, it will be hard to see a large rise in temperatures on Monday, even with 850 mb temperatures still on the warm side. The day will start off dry, but the chances for rain will be on the increase as the frontal system and a band of showers move in from the west for the second half of the day. SPC has MRGL outlook for the far west on Monday which will looks reasonable. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The mid week period will bring the large upper level low through the Great Lakes and down into the Ohio Valley. This will keep cold air advection through the region...keeping temperatures slightly below normal. The low will slowly progress eastward with model PWATS increasing through the latter half of the week. Couple this with the Southwesterly flow and will allow for an increase of POPS Through the second half of the week and into the weekend. The biggest question becomes what will be the progression and timing of the upper level low. Some runs of the GEFS have it opening up into a wave and a few have it retrograding westward. So what may have been yet another dry period could turn cooler and wetter - or at least cloudier in the latter half of the period. So given this uncertainty have increased POPS through Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure over the region will ensure clear skies and light wind this evening. However, as the high slips off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight, an increasingly moist se flow will likely cause low cigs to creep northward from Virginia into the Laurel Highlands. Latest model soundings support the idea of IFR cigs at KJST and mvfr cigs at KAOO by around 09Z. The odds of IFR cigs at KJST should decrease by midday Monday, as the wind shifts from se to a downsloping south wind. Elsewhere, stratus should expand to cover most of the region, with MVFR or low VFR cigs anticipated based on model soundings. A cold front will approach from the west late in the day, but expect associated showers and thunderstorms to hold off until the evening hours. Outlook... Tue-Fri...A chance of showers, most of the time it should be dry. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Dangelo/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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