Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280352 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1152 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... PESKY SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVE...THOUGH NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH OVERALL. STILL EXPECT THESE TO PETER OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET NIGHT. AFTER A HIGH OF 84F...KBFD ALREADY DOWN TO 66F IN THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. A SLOWER RATE OF FALL SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHICH IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS AND STILL AIR WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. MAXES WILL RUN NEAR 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 588 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C. SOLID M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN...ESE ALONG THE PENN/NEW YORK BORDER LATE THIS EVENING. DECENT /VFR TO HIGH END MVFR/ FLYING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR THE 07Z-11Z TIMEFRAME TUESDAY...THE LIGHT WIND...CLEAR SKIES...AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS /IN THE 60S...TO NEAR 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/ WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF IFR FOG AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS. LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG. AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS BURNS AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER. OUTLOOK... WED...MAINLY VFR. THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LAMBERT

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