-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 021821
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
121 PM EST MON DEC 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE STATE
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OTHER THAN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM SW PA UP INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WE REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL AIR DAMMED
UNDER A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED
FROM JUST WEST OF BRADFORD DOWN TO BETWEEN LATROBE AND
PITTSBURGH. THE FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH STALLED OR WASHED OUT OVER
THE REGION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE WE SEE A MORE ROBUST
SW FLOW DEVELOP. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL STAY MAINLY CLOUDY WITH
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THE DEEPER INTO THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT WE GO AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF
MOVES THRU THE REGION. ACTUAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY ON
THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN THE LOW TEMPS
WILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED ICING CONCERNS WHERE
PRECIP DECIDES TO FALL AS LIQUID VS FROZEN. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THAT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE I KEPT THINGS SIMPLE AND
GENERALLY PUT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING AN END TO
WHATEVER SHOWERS ARE HANGING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY. THE REST OF
THE DAY LOOKS DRY...BUT THE LACK OF MIXING UNDER THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MAKE ANYTHING MORE THAN PARTIAL CLEARING UNLIKELY.
AFTER A LONG COOL STRETCH...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND WELL INTO THE
40S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING MDL SPREAD/DECREASING FCST CONFIDENCE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH GEFS OUTPUT SIGNALING A FASTER
TIMING OF LATE WEEK FROPA THAN EITHER THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE...CMC OR UKMET.
HAVE LEANED FCST TOWARD OF BULK OF GUIDANCE WITH IDEA OF A LATE
THURSDAY FROPA. SURGE OF MILD AIR AND SCT SHRA SHOULD PRECEDE ARRIVAL
OF COLD FRONT THURSDAY...THEN SOME RISK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
RIDING UP SLOW-MOVING FRONT ON FRIDAY. WITH DEEP PLUME OF GULF OF
MEX MOISTURE RIDING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
OF SIG RAINFALL IN THE THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE
KEPT MENTION OF A POSSIBLE TURNOVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AS MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH FROM THE GRT LKS.

BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS FAIR AND COLDER WX BACK BY THE
WEEKEND...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE FROM THE GRT LKS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
REMNANTS OF DYING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA...BRINGING CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE
3000-5000` RANGE...BUT WITH SOME LINGERING FOG AND HAZE BRINGING
POCKETS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES.

A NEW SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL WORK IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING DETERIORATING CEILINGS FIRST TO
WESTERN TERMINALS WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH...LASTING INTO TUES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY WEST-NW...IMPROVING TO VFR SE BY
AFTERNOON.

WED...INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND LIKELY REDUCTIONS...ESP LATE.

THU...CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF PA. REDUCED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.

FRI...MVFR/CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT...NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LA CORTE