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000
FXUS61 KCTP 260025
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
825 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will result in another cool night across the
Keystone state. Low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes
on Monday, and push a cold front through the region by Tuesday
morning. The forecast becomes less certain for the rest of the
week as a cut off low forms over the eastern United States. Cooler
and at times wet weather will prevail for the later part of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

Skies are mainly clear but for some thin high clouds. Another
night of decent radiational cooling will allow temperatures to
drop into the 40-s in most locations. The redevelopment of some
low clouds up into southwestern areas should help keep lows in the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

With increasing clouds, it will be hard to see a large rise in
temperatures on Monday, even with 850 mb temperatures still on the
warm side. The day will start off dry, but the chances for rain will
be on the increase as the frontal system and a band of showers
move in from the west for the second half of the day.

SPC has MRGL outlook for the far west on Monday which will looks
reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The mid week period will bring the large upper level low through
the Great Lakes and down into the Ohio Valley. This will keep cold
air advection through the region...keeping temperatures slightly
below normal. The low will slowly progress eastward with model
PWATS increasing through the latter half of the week. Couple this
with the Southwesterly flow and will allow for an increase of
POPS Through the second half of the week and into the weekend. The
biggest question becomes what will be the progression and timing
of the upper level low. Some runs of the GEFS have it opening up
into a wave and a few have it retrograding westward. So what may
have been yet another dry period could turn cooler and wetter - or
at least cloudier in the latter half of the period. So given this
uncertainty have increased POPS through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the region will ensure clear skies and light
wind this evening. However, as the high slips off the Mid Atlantic
coast late tonight, an increasingly moist se flow will likely
cause low cigs to creep northward from Virginia into the Laurel
Highlands. Latest model soundings support the idea of IFR cigs at
KJST and mvfr cigs at KAOO by around 09Z.

The odds of IFR cigs at KJST should decrease by midday Monday,
as the wind shifts from se to a downsloping south wind.
Elsewhere, stratus should expand to cover most of the region, with
MVFR or low VFR cigs anticipated based on model soundings. A cold
front will approach from the west late in the day, but expect
associated showers and thunderstorms to hold off until the evening
hours.

Outlook...

Tue-Fri...A chance of showers, most of the time it should be dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
AVIATION...Fitzgerald