Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 072331 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 731 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SPARK A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A POOL OF MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... BROAD...AND RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO TRIGGER FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PENN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN SVR WEATHER THREAT BEING DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS INVOF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND BRIEF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH NO 397 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z TUESDAY FOR APPROX THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE LOWER GLAKES THIS EVENING IS ACCOMPANIED BY THE NOSE OF A 90 KT 300 MB JET MAX /CROSSING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT 2230Z/. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WANING SFC BASED HEATING AND DECREASING LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER WILL LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH A GREAT DEAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THEN WASHES OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PENN WHERE THE BULK OF THE EVENING RAIN OCCURRED. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MUCH BETTER SHEAR AND MOISTURE APPEARS PRIMED TO SURGE OVER PA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DEEP LAYER PW APPROACHING 2" AND 850 MB LLJ >40 KTS PUSHING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NOT MANY BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST. TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY CROSSES PA...FOLLOWED LATER IN THE DAY BY SECONDARY FRONT THAT WILL PUSH HIGH PWAT AIR FURTHER TO THE SE. DID HOLD MENTION OF LOW POPS IN SE INTO THU...THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE FURTHER SE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER FOR LATE WEEK...WITH MOISTURE CREEPING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASING POPS SAT INTO SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GRADUALLY INCREASE. BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH...SO LOW DAILY POPS WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES START OFF ABOVE NORMAL WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY /ESP SE/...BUT GRADUALLY COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY LATE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARMUP NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN PA AHEAD OF DYING COLD FRONT OVR THE E GRT LKS. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION ALONG WITH A STRONG WGUST REMAINS POSSIBLE THRU ARND SUNSET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVENING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIE OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PA AFTER SUNSET...AS ATMOS COOLS/STABILIZES. FORECAST CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS. LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF DYING COLD FRONT AND ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA MAY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER...MORE SIGNIFICANT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL PA LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA TO CENTRAL PA LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS...A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS W MTNS. SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS SE. THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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