Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280628 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 228 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... 11-3.9 UM IR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS SCT-BKN STRATO AND ALTO CU CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS WITHIN THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER ARE IN THE U50S TO L60S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ELSEWHERE /JUST AHEAD OF 1023 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WRN PENN/...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH WIDESPREAD RIVER/LARGE STREAM VALLEY FOG THICKENING UP. SFC DEWPOINTS AT PRIMARY METAR AND MESO OB SITES INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL COOL ANOTHER FEW-SVRL DEG F THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH EXPECTED MINS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE LOWER SUSQQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TODAY WILL BEGIN OUR WARM UP AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO BUILD. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING LARGE STREAM RIVER VALLEY FOG...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE 70S OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...TO THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN THURSDAY...AND NUDGING NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CENTRAL PA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. IT SHOULD ALSO KEEP CENTRAL PA MAINLY DRY...EXCLUDING ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCAL VFR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FOG BURNS OFF TO A VFR AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRI EVE AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...HAGNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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