Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 051516 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1116 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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VISUAL LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKLY NOW WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDINESS DRIFTING NORTH AROUND THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY. CU STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER VA/WV IN AN AREA OF MODEST CAPE AS DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE HIGH RES MODELS TRY AND DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DOWN OVER THIS REGION AND DRIFT IT INTO MY FAR SWRN ZONES BETWEEN ABOUT 4-8 PM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SKIES AND HIGHS MUCH CLOSER TO WHAT THEY SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/ WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO 10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MOST F THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED OR BURNED OFF...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID DAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL

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