Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231949 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 349 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL BE A FEW...TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LIMITED THE MINS THERE AT 35-36F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED JUST PATCHY FROST. COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. CURRENT SFC OBS ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN ARE RUNNING RIGHT IN STEP WITH THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE /AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 12Z MET/MAV NUMBERS - COMPARED TO THEIR 06Z COUNTERPARTS/. THIS SUPPORTS MINS INDICATED ABOVE. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER THAN SUNDAY MORNING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ANS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE CLOUD FREE SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND EXCELLENT VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FLAT CU...AND AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS STREAKING BY. VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT

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