Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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657 FXUS61 KCTP 221505 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1005 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to move away from the area afternoon. High pressure will then build into the area for the second half of the week. Another cold front will push through Pennsylvania on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc front racing eastward with its very meager band of rain showers exiting with it well east of my area now. Colder air spreading back across northwest and central PA at this hour with light snow showers and flurries returning. A coating has been observed on some Laurel Highland webcams this morning. The seasonably cold air flowing over the relatively mild waters of the Grt Lks will continue produce scattered light lake effect snow showers today across the Allegheny Plateau. But relatively narrow window of opportunity however given approach of high pressure and falling inversion heights resulting in minimal accums of at most a fresh dusting. Expect gradual brightening, mainly east of the mountains, as inversion heights fall this afternoon. For most of central Pa, today will be dry and breezy with temps below normal. GEFS mean 8h temps between -4C and -9C should translate to highs from the low 30s across the high terrain of northwest Pa, to the upper 40s across Lancaster Co. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Any lingering snow showers/flurries across the northwest mountains should end tonight, as surface ridge axis builds into the area. Clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow temps to fall below seasonal norms, with readings mostly in the low to mid 20s by dawn. Surface ridge and associated low PWAT air mass over the area should ensure dry weather and light wind for Thanksgiving. However, passage of an upper level shortwave is likely to produce enough mid and high level cloudiness to term Thursday partly cloudy. Mixing down GEFS mean 925 temps of around -2C should translate to max temps from the mid 30s over the northwest mountains, to the low 40s in the Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence of fair and seasonable weather Thursday night into Friday, as all guidance continues to indicate ridging aloft in advance of next system. Expect a somewhat milder day Friday, as surface high passes off the coast and return southwest flow ensues. Relatively good agreement among med range guidance into next weekend, with a cold front passage likely early Saturday. Scattered rain showers will likely accompany the front Sat, followed by a period of lake effect snow showers Sat night into Sunday, as another blast of seasonably chilly air charges across the relatively mild waters of the Grt Lks. ECENS and GEFS both support below normal temperatures Sunday, as deep upper level trough swings over the northeast states. All signs are pointing toward fair and milder weather early next week, as upper ridging is progged along the eastern seaboard in all med range guidance. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Some ceiling and a few vsby reductions at mid morning will improve to VFR 16 to 18z time frame. Gusty northwest winds will also accompany the passage of the front and affect all airfields through at least the daylight hours. VFR expected overnight tonight and into Thanksgiving Day as high pressure builds into the region. Overall pattern favors no big weather systems into the upcoming weekend, but frontal passages with limited moisture every few days. Outlook... Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected. Sat...Chance of rain/snow showers. Sun...Chance of snow showers across the NW in the morning. Otherwise no sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...DeVoir/Gartner

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