Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230114 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 814 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MIDWEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... TRIMMED SOME OF THE COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AND EXTENDED SOME OTHERS TO COVER THIS STUBBORN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EVENT. MESO-OBS SHOW TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST OF STATE COLLEGE HOVERING AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING WHILE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN SPEEDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE THE AREA MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. HIGH RES MOS IS PERSISTENT IN MAKING OVERNIGHT TEMPS EDGE UP SLOWLY ABOVE FREEZING SO WE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST PLAIN RAIN IN ALL AREAS...BUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS POCKETS OF ICY CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER. GUIDANCE IS ALSO PERSISTENT IN FAVORING MY NORTHERN TIER FOR CONTINUED LIGHT QPF WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP GOOD SRLY FLOW GOING. EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE 30S SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RUN AT 50F ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE SNOWPACK IN THE FAR NW COULD THEN KEEP THEM IN THE 40S. THE HEIGHTS RISE FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE BRINGS HIGHER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A WIDESPREAD. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG TOUGH IN THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. PHASING OF SPLIT-STREAM ENERGY WILL YIELD A DEEP 980MB LOW /-3 TO -4 STD MSLP/ LIFTING NWD THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA ON MONDAY...TRACKING TO OUR WEST. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MAINLY SUN NGT. THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. SURGE OF WARMER AIR /850MB TEMPS AOA 10C/ WILL BRING HIGHS ON MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 55-65F RANGE...PUSHING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND FINISHING ABOUT 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL. WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS FROPA MONDAY NIGHT USHERS BACK IN COOLER AIR AND RETURN OF WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN COLDER TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING AND ESP THE WEEKEND AS THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING PERSISTENCE OF THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. FINALLY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE WRN ATLC DURING THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MSTR SHIELD MAY CONTAIN SNOW. SOLUTIONS FROM THE 12Z SAT SUITE COMING IN WITH SIMILAR TRENDS TO THE 00Z SUITE...BOTH UNFORTUNATELY WITH MIXED SOLUTIONS. GEFS LARGELY FOCUSED ON A MOSTLY OFFSHORE STORM TO AFFECT THE FISHES...WHILE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD INLAND SNOWFALL IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT... ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE- SPOTTY...WITH ONLY KBFD HANGING ONTO THE SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL END THE CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE RAIN HAS MOISTENED UP THE LOWER ATMOS. BUT FLOW KEEPS MILD AIR MOVING IN AND THIS COULD KEEP THEM LOW FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. LLWS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP - ONLY KBFD HAS A POSS - BUT IT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. OUTLOOK... MON...MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. WED...MVFR/IFR POSS EAST. VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ006-011- 012-037-041-042-045-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER

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