Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 161145 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 745 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure drifting east across Pennsylvania today will supply abundant sunshine, low humidity, and light wind. There could be some light showers drifting into the northwest part of the state later tonight into Monday morning, followed by more numerous showers the chance of a gusty thunderstorm Monday afternoon...mainly across the eastern half of the state as a weak frontal boundary slides through. The period Tuesday through Thursday looks to be mainly dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1017mb sfc high pressure extended across the Allegheny Mtns of WVA, Wrn Pa, SW New York state early today...beneath the left entrance region of a 50 kt upper level jet max that extended from Southern PA t Southern New England. This weather feature will dominate our weather today, helping to supply mostly sunny skies, comfortable dewpoints in the 50s, rainfree conditions for practically all areas, and a light and variable breeze. Temps to start the day will range from lower to mid 50s cooler spots of the Northwest Mountains to the mid 60s southeast. Clouds stream into the northwest counties of the state late in the day, and a brief showers can`t be ruled out. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... This evening...clouds will increase mainly across the northwest part of the state where a few scattered showers could sneak into Warren and McKean counties over much of the western part of the region. Forecast model soundings indicate that we`ll likely see a gradually increasing swrly flow in the upper portion of the blyr transport a fairly widespread deck of stratocu (based between 3-5 kft agl across much of the CWA after midnight. Temps tonight will be noticeably milder than our present readings in the 50s to low 60s (and probably on the order of 10 to 15 deg F warmer). Upper trough will bring the best chance for organized rainfall on Monday && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered showers/t`storms may refire again on Tuesday over the eastern parts of the area along SW-NE oriented zone of high moisture/weak instability beneath departing upper trough axis. As the upper level trough lifts out of the region, expect heat to return to the area during the Wed-Fri timeframe. However, dewpoints in the 50s to low or mid 60s over the state should negate the humidity during the Tues-Thursday period. High temps should rise above normal with some guidance showing multiple 90 degree days over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Dangerous heat risk is also a concern beginning Wednesday and lasting through Friday with WPC/NDFD fcst max heat index >95F as the boundary layer mean wind veers around to a favorable westerly downslope flow. Precip opportunities appear to be somewhat limited due to the influence of the upper level ridge. Individual disturbances within the stronger westerlies aloft on northern periphery of the prominent upper ridge have low predictability at this range. Models also start to show differences related to fcst details toward the end of next week especially with timing. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Fog formed quickly at spots like JST. TAFS adjusted as needed. For 12Z TAFS, models have showers moving into central and eastern areas slower now. Made some minor adjustments. Fog and low clouds should burn off fast. Otherwise, a nice day with VFR conditions to prevail into at least this evening. An approaching system to our northwest will bring an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms into the northwest Sunday night and areawide Monday. .OUTLOOK... Mon...Cig restrictions NW in SHRA/TSRA. Sct TSRA impacts elsewhere. Tue...Sct tsra impacts poss east. Wed-Thu...No sig wx.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... The Harrisburg NOAA Weather Radio station WXL-40 (162.550 MHz) remains offline while local technicians work to repair a broken circuit. Return to service is unknown at this time. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Grumm/Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Tyburski AVIATION...Martin EQUIPMENT...Steinbugl/Martin

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