Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 192350 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 750 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay locked in place over Pennsylvania for the next 7 days. This dominant weather feature will provide fair, warm and generally dry weather throughout this entire period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Skies are mostly clear across all but extreme eastern portions of central PA this evening. The western extent of clouds and light shower bands associated with slowly weakening Hurricane Jose are now brushing my SE zones, will keep bkn-ovc skies and very low pops for QPF of under one- tenth of an inch tonight. Low level flow will becomes light and northerly later tonight as Jose weakens to a Tropical Storm and continues to slowly drift off in a northeast direction. This will transition us away from the stratus we saw this morning back to locally dense valley fog for Wednesday morning. Min temps will be about 2-4F lower than early Tuesday over the northern half and similar to Tuesday for the southern half - and notably milder than normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... After we burn off the fog in the valleys, a spectacular Wednesday is on tap with abundant sunshine and just a few flat cu and thin cirrus to paint the otherwise azure blue sky. Could be a couple of showers off to our SW in a very weak and eroding trough, but only result for us will be potentially an increase in cloud cover over the Laurel Highlands. Max temps will once again range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the lower 80s (and maybe a few mid 80s) in the southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overall pattern hasn`t changed much, there is a good overall consensus in the models through the second half of the work week. For much of this period, a 590 dam closed 500 hPa high will drift slowly out of the midwest states, and become centered over western PA by late this weekend through early next week. The GEFS forecasts showed this feature as a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights which will translate to well above normal temperatures. High temps from Wednesday and through the weekend will be 10-15F above normal with little or no chance of rain through at least Monday. Lows early each morning will be consistently in the mid and upper 50s across the northern and western mtns, to lower 60s in the larger SE metro areas. Min temps may cool off slightly for this weekend thanks to deep dry air and a light N to NW llvl flow of drier dewpoint air at the sfc. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Widespread VFR continues this evening with generally light winds. The western extent of the outer bands of light showers associated with slowly weakening Hurricane Jose look like they will just brush our SE zones for a time this evening, but no low conditions are expected even if they sneak into LNS. Low level flow will become light northerly tonight as Jose weakens and meanders offshore overnight. This will transition us away from the stratus we saw this morning back to locally dense valley fog for Wednesday morning, which will likely affect most terminals outside of the Lower Susq Valley. Wednesday we will start rather murky in the areas with fog, before burning off to VFR conditions by mid to late morning. .Outlook... Thu-Sun...Patchy valley fog possible each morning. Otherwise VFR with generally light winds and minimal clouds.
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&& .CLIMATE... Astronomical Fall/Autumnal Equinox begins at 4:02 PM Friday September 22, 2017. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/RXR NEAR TERM...DeVoir/RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...DeVoir/La Corte/RXR CLIMATE...

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