Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301952 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 352 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO FIRE FROM THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR ALOFT. THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WORKED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN PA...BUT THE FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BASICALLY JUST STALL OR WASHOUT OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY INTO THE EVENING WILL BE FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. MODEL FORECAST CAPES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MODEST SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN LOW...ISOLATED AT BEST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE MINIMAL. AS THE UPPER LOW GRINDS TO A HALT OVERHEAD...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS A THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A CONTINUOUS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY MEANS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LINGERING MVFR OVER SERN AREAS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT AND THIN OUT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN PA WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST WHILE NEW CONVECTION POPS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL IN THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND SHOWERS LINGER INTO WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR A DRYING/IMPROVING TREND WED. THE CHC OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE APPLCHNS. FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE

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