Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230343 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1143 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery northwest winds will usher in much colder air. The first touch of lake effect snow flakes are possible over some of the higher ridge tops...but no significant accumulations are expected. A weak disturbance will pass through Sunday night bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air that will last through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Some very light showers continue to stream SE off Lake Erie as cold air continues to pour over the lakes into the local area. A gusty NW wind will continue overnight in the strong gradient behind the departing low moving through Maine. Rain or snow showers/flurries will continue overnight, mainly favoring my NW zones as the deep and well aligned NW flow is forecast to last at least into mid day Sunday. We have already had snow reported at BFD and JST, but with relatively warm skin temps, any accums that occur over the higher elevation under the more persistent lake bands, will be minor. Mins will not be far from current temps in the northwestern half of the area since the wind will keep it mixed. Mins SE will be L40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cross-lake flow lifts to the north and weakens. Just some sprinkles, flurries will affect the NW for the morning, but it should be dry for the rest of the day. The rest of the area will be better than today with a mostly sunny sky and temps 10-15F higher than Sat. But, the wind will still be gusty. A streak of showers (thunder?) should cross the north Sunday Night. It will be moving quickly and rain will not get any farther south than I-80. Mins will be in the 40s, and the wind will not die off much. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As a sprawling surface and mid-level system over eastern Quebec slowly unwinds early this week, broad cyclonic/northwest flow will continue to reinforce colder air over Pennsylvania. Weak shortwave sliding through early Monday will keep mention of light showers in the NW mountains, and keep breezy conditions in place through the day. High pressure gradually works in from the Great Lakes Tue into Wed keeping below normal temperatures in place. CAA comes to an end on Wed as upper ridge finally moves through. But that will be quickly followed by a compact low developing over the Midwest that will be knocking on our door by Thu. Expect showers to work in from the west later Wed night, with rain likely for much of the area on Thu. Model guidance quickly diverges after that, so confidence in next weekends forecast is rather low. But looks like potentially another quick shot of cooler air late week, with the GFS and EC battling it out for synoptic features by Sunday. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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03Z TAFS sent. Minor adjustments made. The main issue overnight into Sunday will be gusty winds. The other issue will be the band of lake effect rain showers that will be from near UNV southward across JST and AOO this evening. Outlook... Sun Night...MVFR N with RA. VFR elsewhere. Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible early. Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx. Thu...Widespread showers.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/La Corte NEAR TERM...Dangelo/La Corte SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR/Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.