Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 161556 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1156 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WIND TODAY. THE CURRENT...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EASTER WEEKEND...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... WIDESPREAD SKC WAS NOTED OVER PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME SHALLOW STRATO CU AND A FEW FLURRIES DRIFTING INTO THE NW...AND NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA SOME LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF ERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. NW WINDS WILL BLOW AT 10-15 KTS... WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS RANGE ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. ACROSS THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-10KTS WITH G15KT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NE...THEN EAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NE...INTO WRN NEW YORK. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEG F BELOW FCST VALUES. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS A TAD THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO U30S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND U40S IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH FOR THE LOWER SUSQ FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER - BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM - TONIGHT. SO DESPITE WAA ALOFT TONIGHT...THE DECOUPLED ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. CERTAINLY FROST IS A GIVEN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NIL WX FOR THE PERIOD WITH A GOOD WARM UP THURS AS THE LOW LEVELS MIX AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RESULT. THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD START TO BRING IN SOME MARITIME MSTR LATE THURSDAY BUT THAT IS A LITTLE TOO-MESOSCALE TO PIN DOWN AT THIS RANGE. MORE LIKELY THOUGH THAT THOSE LOWER CLOUDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS OVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STG RIDGING WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM STG HP CELL CENTERED OVER MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AGAIN WED NGT INTO AM THURS...AND THEREFORE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE EASTERLY MARITIME LLVL FLOW WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE SERN ZONES. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI-SAT WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS IDEA BUT TIMING DIFFS MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE REAMPLIFYING UPSTREAM...WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED ALONG THE WEST COAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE- AVG 500MB RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE NERN CONUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN DUE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE LW FLOW...WITH SEVERAL LOW-MEDIUM CHC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN THE OUTER PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LKLY STILL AVG BELOW LATE APRIL CLIMO. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NORTH TO NW WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER AROUND TO THE NE OR EAST AT 4-7 KTS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE INTO WRN NEW YORK STATE. PATCHES OF THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN...WHILE SOME SCATTERED/SHALLOW STRATO CU WILL BE FOUND INVOF KBFD...AND ALSO TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT AS A RESULT OF SOME LIMITED/SHALLOW MOISTURE DRIFTING SOUTH FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED FOR THU AND MOST OF FRI. ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT. OUTLOOK... .THU-FRI...GENERALLY VFR. .SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN /AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/. .SUN...MAINLY VFR UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. && .CLIMATE... LOOKS LIKE BRADFORD HAS A NEW RECORD MIN FOR THE 16TH ALREADY - AND ALSO CAME CLOSE FOR THE 15TH AS WELL - JUST A DEGREE OFF TYING THE RECORD FOR TAX DAY. BUT THE SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD AT BFD AIRPORT /SINCE 1957/ MAKES IT A LITTLE EASIER TO CRACK MANY OF THE RECORDS THERE. KJST AND KAOO HAVE ALSO ATTAINED/TIED THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS FOR TODAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SEE WHAT THE FINAL NUMS ARE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING - AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING - ARE/WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FROM AROUND THE AREA. AOO... TODAY 24/1950/... THURSDAY 23/1980/ BFD... TODAY 18/1980/... THURSDAY 16/1963/ JST... TODAY 20/1943/... THURSDAY 21/1966/ IPT... TODAY 20/1943/... THURSDAY 25/1904/ MDT... TODAY 25/1943/... THURSDAY 29/1980 AND 1904/ && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN CLIMATE...LAMBERT/COLBERT

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