Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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867 FXUS61 KCTP 241005 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 605 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the region by midweek. A cold front will likely push southeast across the region next Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Radar trends at 10Z showing back edge of steady rain beginning to lift out of eastern Pa, as weak surface low over the Delmarva Peninsula and associated southeasterly low level jet lift out. Latest HRRR runs and upstream conditions suggest the steady rain will exit the eastern portion of the forecast area by around 12Z. Earlier flooding concerns have diminished and remaining stratiform rain over the northeast part of the forecast area is not anticipated to cause more than minor flooding early this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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Upper trough over the Grt Lks is poised to swing into the region later today, causing scattered convection to break out along and ahead of associated cold front as early as mid morning over the northwest mountains, and mainly during the afternoon elsewhere. After a cloudy start to the day in many locations, model soundings indicate a fair amount of sunshine developing by midday, as lower PWAT air filters in on westerly flow. NCAR ensemble indicating prefrontal CAPEs rising to around 1000 J/KG by afternoon across the eastern 2/3rds of the forecast area. The combination of modest CAPEs and 0-6km shear of 40-45kts will support a marginal threat of severe weather during the afternoon. Convection-allowing models indicate the best chance of showers will come during late morning/early afternoon across the northwest mountains, with more robust convection forming along cold front, as it pushes through the rest of the forecast area during the afternoon hours.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not a lot of change from yesterday. Still going mainly with dry conditions Tuesday into Wed. Did lower temperatures a degree or so on Tue, given concern for some clouds and lack of real strong cool push. Also models show pair of weak lows just inland from the south shore of the lower Great Lakes, not sure what to make of this. A strange summer lately. Still expecting showers and storms on Thursday into the first part of Friday, with the next cold front. Went with mainly dry conditions after early Friday. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Heaviest showers (now with very mininal lightning) now contained to along and east of the Susq River at 10Z, and will continue to impact IPT-MDT-LNS through ~12-13z. West of there, conditions somewhat variable from location to location, but generally MVFR over the central mtns and IFR over the western/northern mtns - which will persist into the mid morning hours before improvement (lasting the longest in the NW Mtns). An upper trough will push slowly across Pennsylvania today and Tue. This will kick off another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon with intermittant localized impacts. Showers diminish by evening, but linger the longest in the northern mtns. This is also the best chance for ceiling restrictions tonight. With plenty of low level moisture around, expect valley fog to develop areawide as well. .OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...AM cig restrictions north/west. Valley fog areawise. Otherwise no sig wx. Thu-Fri...Chance of afternoon TSRA/SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ041-042- 046-049>053-058. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...RXR

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