Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270734 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 234 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... WESTERN BAND IS SHRIVELING UP...BUT EASTERN BAND IS STILL PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES. HOWEVER...IT TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP/DIMINISH BY MORNING. ADDTNL ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO IN THAT BAND AND NEARBY - SO WILL HOLD THE ADVY FOR A BIT. ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY BE ABLE TO JUST WIPE IT ALTOGETHER IN A FEW HOURS IF RADAR TREND IS STEADY DOWNWARD AND ACCUMS ARE AS LIGHT AS EXPECTED. WHILE SCT SHSN MAY BACK IN FROM THE EAST...THE PROBABILITY OF THAT IS VERY LOW AND ANY ACCUMS WOULD BE JUST A DUSTING EVEN IF THEY DO. IN COLLAB WITH PHI...HAVE DROPPED LANC CO FROM THE ADVY. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ALL BUT OVER TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. 25 TO 35KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL BE FELT AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS REALIZED IN WAKE OF STORM JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DEEP STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM PA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH...TOOK OUT SNOW SHOWERS FOR JST. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY WED MORNING. MAIN CHANGE WAS WED NIGHT...DID LOWER TEMPS...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS...AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST. COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. INTERESTING FEATURE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE A DEVELOPING SNOW BAND STRETCHING N-S LOCATED FROM RENOVO TO JUST EAST OF STATE COLLEGE THROUGH ADAMS COUNTY. RADAR AROUND 06Z SHOWED A CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES WHICH IS LEADING TO THE ENHANCED INTENSITY OF THIS BAND /THAT THE VERY SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON/. AS FAR AS TERMINALS...LOOKS LIKE ONLY KUNV WILL BE IMPACTED WITH IFR VSBYS...BUT SIMILAR IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE AS IT PEAKS AND THEN DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE IN THE EAST SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NE BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY TUE AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED. THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW. SAT...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005- 006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056- 063>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...RXR

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