Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 252200 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 600 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. AS OF 21Z...JUST A FEW LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES LEFT ACROSS NORTHERN PA...ASSOC WITH TRAILING LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. LATEST 4KM NAM/HRRR SUGGEST EVEN THESE LINGERING SPRINKLES WILL LKLY END BY MIDNIGHT. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES AN INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS BY ARND 12Z UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT. EARLY EVENING VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...SFC OBS INDICATE WARM FRONT STILL HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS. HAVE GONE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT BASED ON SATL TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF BLYR FLOW VEERING FROM SE TO SW OVERNIGHT. PTCLDY SKIES...LGT WIND AND WET GROUND SHOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...ESP OVR THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL TODAY. CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING. MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A STRONG GRADIENT IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS. THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST. FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...CERU LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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