Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 161953 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 253 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build across the state through Friday. A frontal system will move into the area Saturday with much colder and blustery conditions following it for the end of the weekend into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest radar imagery shows bands of mainly light rain showers stretching NW to SE across roughly the northern half of central PA. Pcpn is expected to remain to the north and continue to decrease in coverage through the evening hours. Gusty west-northwest winds will persist through the evening hours in the wake of the cold front that moved across the state today. Model guidance support wind gusts between 25-35kts across the area through sunset, then diminishing slightly overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Friday will be fair and uneventful as we get a break between frontal systems. Highs will be a tick or two cooler than today with a diminishing wind as high pressure moves over the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The next weather system of note will be a storm system that will move through the eastern Great Lakes Saturday. A warm front- cold front combination will bring a period of rain to the area by sunrise Saturday, progressively spreading wast across the region during the day. The associated cold front is made to pass through the state Saturday evening and overnight, ushering in a shot of cold air and setting the stage for an early season bout with lake effect snow showers for Sunday and Monday. The usual snowbelt areas of NW Warren county into northern McKean County will be the most likely so see several inches of snow, with lesser accums even down into the Laurels. High pressure moving to our south will influence the weather to start Thanksgiving week, bringing a couple of cool-dry days. Temperatures will begin to modify Tuesday with a SW flow expected to develop. Model spread increases as weaker disturbances slide through a trough centered over the Great Lakes, decreasing forecast confidence heading toward Thanksgiving, but potential for weak waves to impact mainly NW half of CWA could bring chances for light snow during this time. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Gusty west-northwest winds will persist through the evening hours in the wake of the cold front that moved across the state today. Bukfit soundings support gusts between 25-35kts across the area through sunset, then diminishing slightly overnight. On the west-northwest winds, low level moisture ascending the mountains of western Pa will result in predominantly MVFR cigs at western most airfields /KBFD, KAOO and KJST/ into tonight. At KBFD, moisture flowing off of Lake Erie will likely produce a period of snow showers this afternoon. Farther south, a few heavier snow showers could briefly drop vsbys to IFR between 20Z-03Z at KJST. Downsloping winds should result in mainly VFR conditions across the eastern half of Pa. Outlook... Fri...Chance of early AM low cigs at KJST. Sat...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly KBFD. LLWS possible. Sun...MVFR/IFR in shsn NW. MVFR to low VFR central and east. Gusty winds 270-300 degrees. Mon and Tue...No sig weather expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...La Corte/Gartner SHORT TERM...La Corte/Gartner LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner

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