Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011840 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 240 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH...AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS... DENOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. LAST FEW FRAMES OF REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...IN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE REMAINING SHOWERS DYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO DRY AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S) AND DOWNSLOPING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WEAK 1017 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LYING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING TO CALM WINDS...PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEP NORTHERN VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD TO SCT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFS AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN FREQUENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND TUE. OOZ GFS APPEARS OUT OF PHASE WITH BULK OF OTHER MDLS WITH IT/S FASTER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING WETTER SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPRAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR IN VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. LCL LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR KBFD EARLY THU MORNING. VFR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING WITH ISOLD TO SCT MVFR CIGS THU AFTN OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS (KJST AND KAOO PRIMARILY) AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA. OUTLOOK... THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER

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