Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251914 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 314 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure over Pennsylvania this afternoon will slide east and set up shop across the western Atlantic over the next several days. A southerly flow on the west side of this high will transport increasing moisture north from the gulf coast region. A few weak upper level disturbances will move east from the Ohio Valley and interact with this moisture to spark scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday. The noticeably more summer-like pattern will continue through at least the first half of the upcoming holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Moisture increasing in the mid levels (above a rather warm/dry near sfc air with dewpoints in the mid 40s to around 50F) is combining with a thin veil of cirrus to create a light hazy appearance to am otherwise splendid late spring afternoon. 19Z temps are within a deg or two of their fcst highs in the u70s to mid 80s. A west to southwest breeze of 7-10kts with minor gusts into the mid and upper teens...will lighten up tonight as it backs to the sw then south by daybreak. A deck of bkn-ovc alto cu over central and wrn Ohio (based between 8-15 kft agl) will move into our western zones around or shortly before midnight...then across central PA and the Susq Valley late tonight. Temps should reach their lows in many locations just prior to the cloud cover spreading in (or the T curve should at least flatten out late tonight). Temps will dip into the low-mid 50s across the nrn mtns...and settle into the u50s to l60s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A generally thick area of alto cu clouds should move across the fcst area Thursday morning and linger through the midday hours across the east before breaking a bit during the several hours of peak heating. A weak upper shortwave and subtle llvl trough/wind shift will slide ENE across the region Thursday afternoon and Evening. The amount...intensity and location of showers and isolated to sctd TSRA will depend highly on the amt of llvl heating we can achieve through the cloud cover. In addition...the presence of a weak mid-level capping inversion should limit extensive/deep convection. Latest Oper and ENS guidance points twd a few to svrl hour period of high chc/low likely pops for convection between 20Z thur and 01z Friday with tapered pops on either side of this time period. Mean QPF will be around one tenth of an inch...with obviously higher and lower pinpoint amounts around and outside of the anticipated small convective clusters. High temps Thursday afternoon should be a few deg F lower in most places due to the cloud cover. After the scattered evening convection wanes...a mild and somewhat muggy night will follow with mins between 58-65F.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The large scale pattern has a decidedly summertime look and feel to it through Memorial Day weekend and into next week with light winds aloft and a prevailing ridge across the northeast CONUS. Temperatures will average above normal with the core of the `hot` weather front-loaded Friday-Sunday before trending modestly toward late May/early June climatology. Precipitation risk early in the period should be characterized by diurnal convection with the highest probs occurring during peak afternoon heating, augmented at times perhaps by weak disturbances drifting through aloft. Max POP may be centered on or around Memorial Day as weak shortwave suppresses heights as it passes by to the north and some interaction takes place with `tropical` system migrating toward the southeast U.S. coast. Latest NHC forecast this area of disturbed weather has a 50% chance of development within the next 5 days. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will provide the region with a warm and sunny rest of today with just some mainly thin high-level cirrus and cirrostratus. VFR conditions will prevail. West to southwest winds of 7-10kts with gusts in the 14-18kt range will diminish quickly this evening...and become nearly calm later tonight. Increasing BKN-OVC mid level cloud deck based between 8-15kft agl will drift into our western PA TAF sites later tonight and over the SUSQ Valley during the late night and morning hours Thursday. A few light showers could accompany this influx of warmer/moist mid level air. The low-level flow will become south to southwesterly late Thursday morning and afternoon. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon/Thursday evening. Not totally sold on this...as the mid and upper wave potentially triggering the convection will be weakening as it approaches, and dewpoints are relatively low to begin with (and have to come up a lot higher) for any appreciable convection to fire. Somewhat a better chance for scattered afternoon shra/tsra on Friday. OUTLOOK... Fri-Sun...Isold...mainly pm tsra impacts possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambert/Martin

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