Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221216 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 816 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SERN VA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFF THE TIDEWATER AND DELMARVA BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z GEFS/21Z SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP. HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE FCST. SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD... INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA POSS ERN THIRD. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE

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