Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180622 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 122 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the commonwealth tonight and Saturday. An extended period of mild weather will extend through this weekend into most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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A few more patches of high clouds are all that remain across central PA as upper level ridge axis inches closer and sfc ridge axis tracks into central PA early this morning. Skies will be mostly clear for the rest of the night after these patches of cirrus depart. It should be relatively mild for February, as southerly flow and WAA develop on west side of departing surface ridge. Most of central Pa should bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s around midnight, with readings likely rising toward dawn across the Allegheny Plateau.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Warm front, lying across Ohio and W Virginia this evening, will lift northeast through the region Saturday, allowing temperatures to surge to near 20F above average. Highs should eclipse 60F across much of southern and southeastern PA, with low to mid 50s expected over the still snow-covered northern mountains. Mainly sunny skies are expected to give way to increasing high clouds late in the day in advance of an upper low lifting out of the Mississippi Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The mild temperatures will continue through the extended forecast as no cold air push in sight. The warmest readings will come on Sat/Sun and again from Wed-Fri. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. A very weak cold front will push across the region Sat night. However, it has little to no mid level moisture to work with, so may see a light shower from the Laurels across the southern tier, but otherwise no precipitation is expected. Rather strong ridge builds in for early next week. Surface ridge axis splitting the region will bring a bit of northerly/ northeast flow to eastern sections, suppressing temps a bit (but still remaining well above average). Weak system slides by to the north Tue night, and brings quick chance for showers. Flow turns SW by Wed as temps rebound. Pattern becomes more amplified late week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase late week, with warm front lifting through Thu into Fri - bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 03Z TAFS sent. Expect mid and high clouds to be on the increase overnight and early Saturday, as strong warm advection occurs. The source region of the airmass for late Saturday is around Denver this afternoon. Wind fields will be on the increase later tonight, and winds most likely will not mix down to the ground east of the mountains until later Saturday morning. Thus have LLWS in the TAF package. Should be a mild day on Saturday, as plus 8 degree C air is fcst to be over the lower Great Lakes by 00Z Sunday. Had a warm spell late February last year, temperatures got well into the 60s. There could be a brief shower early Sunday, as a weak secondary cold front moves across the region from the north. Still deep snow pack across New England. Thus the potential remains to tap the cold air at times. Outlook... Sun...MVFR cigs psbl NW 1/3. -RA psbl near PA/MD border in the morning. Mon-Tue. VFR/No sig wx during the day. MVFR at night with chc shra. Wed...MVFR early with chc shra. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.