Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 180622
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
122 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017
A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the commonwealth
tonight and Saturday. An extended period of mild weather will
extend through this weekend into most of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --A few more patches of high clouds are all that remain across
central PA as upper level ridge axis inches closer and sfc
ridge axis tracks into central PA early this morning.
Skies will be mostly clear for the rest of the night after these
patches of cirrus depart. It should be relatively mild for
February, as southerly flow and WAA develop on west side of
departing surface ridge. Most of central Pa should bottom out in
the upper 20s to low 30s around midnight, with readings likely
rising toward dawn across the Allegheny Plateau.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Warm front, lying across Ohio and W Virginia this evening, will
lift northeast through the region Saturday, allowing temperatures
to surge to near 20F above average. Highs should eclipse 60F
across much of southern and southeastern PA, with low to mid
50s expected over the still snow-covered northern mountains.
Mainly sunny skies are expected to give way to increasing high
clouds late in the day in advance of an upper low lifting out
of the Mississippi Valley.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The mild temperatures will continue through the extended
forecast as no cold air push in sight. The warmest readings will
come on Sat/Sun and again from Wed-Fri. High temperatures in
general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min
temperatures mainly above freezing.
A very weak cold front will push across the region Sat night.
However, it has little to no mid level moisture to work with, so
may see a light shower from the Laurels across the southern
tier, but otherwise no precipitation is expected.
Rather strong ridge builds in for early next week. Surface ridge
axis splitting the region will bring a bit of northerly/
northeast flow to eastern sections, suppressing temps a bit
(but still remaining well above average).
Weak system slides by to the north Tue night, and brings quick
chance for showers. Flow turns SW by Wed as temps rebound.
Pattern becomes more amplified late week as a system over the
central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds
will increase late week, with warm front lifting through Thu
into Fri - bringing increasing rain chances heading into the
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z TAFS sent.
Expect mid and high clouds to be on the increase overnight and
early Saturday, as strong warm advection occurs.
The source region of the airmass for late Saturday is around
Denver this afternoon. Wind fields will be on the increase later
tonight, and winds most likely will not mix down to the ground
east of the mountains until later Saturday morning. Thus have
LLWS in the TAF package.
Should be a mild day on Saturday, as plus 8 degree C air is
fcst to be over the lower Great Lakes by 00Z Sunday. Had a warm
spell late February last year, temperatures got well into the
There could be a brief shower early Sunday, as a weak secondary
cold front moves across the region from the north. Still deep
snow pack across New England. Thus the potential remains to tap
the cold air at times.
Sun...MVFR cigs psbl NW 1/3. -RA psbl near PA/MD border in the
Mon-Tue. VFR/No sig wx during the day. MVFR at night with chc
Wed...MVFR early with chc shra.