Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 302005 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 405 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH DYING OVER THE REGION AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMALS ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE REGION...WITH TWO MAIN AREAS - BOTH MAINLY FIRED OFF LOCALLY-HIGHER TERRAIN. NO THUNDER YET...BUT A FEW OF THE CELLS ARE RATHER TALL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY POP THIS EVENING UP AS THE BEST UPPER VORTICITY AND SHORT WAVE NEAR FROM THE NW BEFORE FIZZLING OUT. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE THE SAME INTENSITY AND RELATIVELY SIMILAR COVERAGE. SO POPS ARE FINE WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY. WILL LINGER THE SHOWERS LONGEST IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESP THE SE AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDES EAST BUT STALLS. CLOUD COVER IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RH PLOTS SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOWER CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THE WAVE DOES NOT GO THROUGH AND WE DO NOT GET INTO SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NAM RUNS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE NW BY MORNING...MOST LIKELY ASSOCD WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION. AGAIN...NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE AND BEGINNING OF THE RETURN FLOW IN WRN PA. JUST THE FAR SRN TIER HAS THE OTHER SLIGHT CHC FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS THAT TROUGH LINGERS. HOWEVER...FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING THERE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESP IN PLACES WHICH HAD RAINFALL AND THOSE WHICH SEE MORE CLEARING THAN OTHERS. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS POINT. MINS WILL RUN IN THE 60S EVERYWHERE AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT REALLY COME DOWN SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO DRY OUT ON MON. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD BUT SOME SEMBLANCE OF TROFFINESS REMAINS ACCORDING TO MOST GUID. WITH THE SFC HIGH RETURN FLOW INCREASING...A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE MON...BUT MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND FAR NORTH. HAVE ALLOW FOR LINGERING SHRA S IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL SHRA IN THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN TODAY - IF WE CAN GET RID OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR A SHORT TIME - BECAUSE 8H TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2C WARMER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE- NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MIDWEEK /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI. EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE. TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHRA SPLATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT VCSH IN MOST LOCATIONS ALL EVENING...WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION EVIDENT TO THE SHRA AT THIS POINT. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVER KIPT BUT WASHES OUT ELSEWHERE WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT THE FOCUS FROM THE NRN HALF TO THE OVER SRN PA OVERNIGHT. LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING FORCING SHOULD CAUSE MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND DISSIPATE BY 03Z-06Z. SOME FOG AND IFR POSS OVERNIGHT - MAINLY WHERE IT RAINS AND IN PLACES WHERE CLEARING OCCURS. ONLY GOING TO PUT IFR IN FOR A BRIEF TIME IN KBFD FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LOWER BUT NON-IFR CLOUDS MAY ALSO HANG TOUGH WITH LITTLE FLOW TO PUSH THE REMNANT MOISTURE AWAY. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME SHRA AROUND...BUT ONLY ISOLD AND MAINLY AFTN. THUS...NO MENTIONS IN THIS PKG EITHER. SFC HIGH REMAINS TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THUS...LOWER CHC FOR SHRA EXISTS IN THE MON-THU TIME FRAME. BUT MORNING FOG DUE TO HIGH LLVL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... TUE-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED AREAS MVFR OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG. FRI...LCL TSRA POSS - MAINLY S. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DANGELO

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