Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231218 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 718 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS EVE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MONRING. ANOTHER LESS POTENT COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ANOTHER /AND LIKELY FINAL/ ROUND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS TDY...AS THE NOSE OF A 110 KT SWRLY UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE STATE. PRIOR TO THIS AREA OF PLAIN RAIN...RATHER DEEP SOUTH-SWRLY ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295-305 K THETA LAYER /ATOP A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC/ WILL BE FOCUSED ACRS CENTRAL AND NERN PENN THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN...FZRA...AND DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MID MORNING...AND WITH TEMPS TEETERING ON THE 32F MARK THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS...WE/LL MAINTAIN FZRA ADVISORY FROM THE LAURELS...NE TO THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH 12Z. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND PATCHY -FZRA/FZDZ. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ICE ACCUM...BUT MOST PLACES WILL SEE LESS. THE SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC...TOPPED BY MILDER/MOIST AIR WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK STRATUS/STRATO CU OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH RIDGES AOA 2000 FT MSL SHROUDED IF FOG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASING TREND IN THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH ADDITIONAL QPF AOB 0.10 OF AN INCH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT INTO WED...AS COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...PRECEDED BY A RIBBON OF HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH PWAT AIR ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SSWRLY UPPER JET OF 140-150 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE CFROPA IN THE 04-10Z TIME PERIOD CHRISTMAS DAY. IN ADDITION...THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A RIBBON OF CAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...MINIMAL CAPE SUCH AS THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG/DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS...A FEW TO SVRL KFT AGL...OFTEN RESULTS IN A NCFRB WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURST DAMAGE OCCURRING BENEATH MINI BOWS IN THE LINE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT...AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. WIL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE FOR A TSRA WED EVENING...GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ALSO FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TIME OF DAY AND THERMAL RIDGE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS COULD CLIMB INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE LATE CHRISTMAS EVE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THU. A FEW SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. NOT REAL COLD BEHIND THE FRONT. SW FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BRING IN MILD AIR. A FEW MORE SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. WENT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NOT REAL COLD FOR LATE DEC. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR NOW. WITH SPLIT FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE FOR A SOUTHERN WAVE TO BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ANYTIME FROM SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE ANYTHING WOULD BE FAST MOVING...AND MAINLY TO THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS EVE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MONRING. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS CONTINUE WITH ENTIRE CWA COMING IN AT IFR/LIFR AT 12Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDS IN FROM THE SE FROM A WEAK LOW NEAR DELMARVA. SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS...SO ONGOING DRIZZLE MAY BRING LIGHT ICING FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT WARMING TEMPS WILL BRING RELIEF BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER /AND LIKELY FINAL/ ROUND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS TDY...AS THE NOSE OF A 110 KT SWRLY UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE STATE. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH CIGS LIFTING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON /MAYBE TO MVFR IN THE SW/. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS DAY WEARS ON AS WELL. LOW CIGS AGAIN DROP FURTHER TONIGHT AS EVEN HIGHER PWAT AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. RAIN ALSO SPREADS IN FROM W TO E STARTING MID EVENING. OUTLOOK... WED...PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. SLGT CHC TSTM NW. BREEZY. LLWS LIKELY. THU...WINDY AND COLDER WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN. LLWS. FRI...FAIR AND MOSTLY VFR. SAT...FAIR AND MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHSN WITH LOCAL REDUCTIONS NW.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049-050. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...RXR

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