Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 130942 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 442 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will slide southeast and off the mid atlantic coast today as a large area of high pressure builds over the upper great lakes as slowly filters colder air into the state into Saturday. An upper air disturbance will link up with a weak trough of surface low pressure nosing in from the Ohio River Valley late tonight and Saturday to bring periods of light snow to central and northern parts of the state, and mixed precipitation or freezing rain across the south. Another area of high pressure will build east into the region for Sunday with some sunshine, seasonably cold temperatures and a light northwesterly breeze. Milder conditions will work back into the area for the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Sfc cold front has pushed just south and east of PA early this morning, but plenty of shallow and warm strato cu persist in its wake across most of the forecast area with nothing more than a sprinkle or flurry expected. The diurnal temp curve will be quite flat today as moderately strong llvl cold advection will compensate for any fleeting clearing, and the downslope nwrly flow into the central valleys and susq region. Max temps this afternoon will be mainly a few deg F cooler than 09z temps, except for the SE where highs in the lower 40s will be some 5-7F cooler than current observed temps. Any blue skies revealed by the dissipating shallow strato cu deck during the late morning and afternoon hours will get quickly topped by a shield of thickening mid and high clouds streaming in quickly from the WSW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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This will be the main adverse weather period over the upcoming weekend as the entrance region of a potent and nearly quasi-stnry east/west jet max at 300 mb becomes situated across the region. Light to moderate isent upglide develops as a result of increasing FGEN across much of the region during the late morning and afternoon hour Saturday with the NAM, SREF and NBM the most aggressive/northern model solutions with the precip shield. pulses of slightly above freezing air at different depths in the low- levelswill nose into swrn/scent PA late tonight and Saturday, supporting the likelihood for a wide mixture of precip across the SW zones, and a much better chance for a light 1-2 inch snowfall across the region northeast of the RT 322 corridor. Posted a Winter Weather Advisory from 05Z Sat-05Z Sunday for our 4 swrn zones, as a result of the bulk of the precip expected to be in the form of freezing rain there. The light snow/sleet mix currently doesn`t warrant the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory further east at this point. Although QPF amounts are light...to around 0.20-0.3 inches via some members of the SREF, there is quite a bit of spread, reflecting some model uncertainty/gradient with respect to the northern edge of the precip shield, not to mention differences timing and precip amount.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will build into the state from the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday, supplying us with fair, chilly weather and relatively light nwrly wind. High temps will rebound by some 5-8 deg F on Sunday with respect to Saturday`s highs. A warm front will lift back northeast from the Ohio River Valley early in the upcoming week. This airmass boundary will be preceded and accompanied by a light, wintry mix of precip during the morning hours Monday. Next week is looking mild and showery, as bulk of med range guidance shows a building ridge along the east coast with a surface low track west of PA. It looks like there will be enough low lvl cold air to support some ice ahead of first low on Monday. For Tue-Thu, med range guidance placing PA in deep southerly flow ahead of a trough over the midwest. Plume of anomalous PWATS over the region supports the idea of warm and showery weather. GEFS temp plumes showing no below freezing temps (even at BFD) Tuesday- Thursday. Some variation with potential waves on the front by late next week, thus did not want to take mention of showers out for late Thursday at this point.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Post-frontal westerly upslope flow will maintain LIFR-MVFR cigs at KBFD/KJST this morning. MVFR to VFR cigs will prevail to the east of the Allegheny Front. Surface wind gusts to 20kt from 280-320 degrees will decrease by late afternoon. Overall trend will be toward VFR by evening. Outlook... Sat...Sub-VFR likely with wintry mix southern 1/2-1/3 airspace. VFR northern 1/2. Sun...VFR/No sig wx. Mon-Tue...Sub-VFR likely with chc of freezing rain/rain. && .CLIMATE... Daily record maximum temperatures were set at Harrisburg (65), Altoona (66) and Bradford (56) yesterday 1/12/17. A daily rainfall record of 1.92 inches was also set at Bradford. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Saturday night for PAZ024-025-033-034.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert AVIATION...Steinbugl CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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