Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 181849 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 249 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEK. SHOWERS FROM A WEAK LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A NICE AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. UPPER TROF UNDERCUTTING A PREVAILING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS TRACKING ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA AND PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LCL BKN-OVC CIGS INTO THE LAURELS. RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR... BUT SLGT TO CHC POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO TRACK MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTIES TONIGHT...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z. STILL...UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO TUE MORNING. MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR...AND SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
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MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7"). CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET. CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A `LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS LATE AFTN/EVE. MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLD/SCT SHRA POSSIBLE AT KJST AND KAOO TONIGHT. KUNV AND KMDT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SCT FOG LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AIRFIELDS TUE 09Z-13Z. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU. OUTLOOK... TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY. WED-FRI...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER

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