Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251952 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA IS LEADING TO INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HIGH RES MESO MODELS WANT TO BRING A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVER NWRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BULK OF US SHOULD EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY. SREF POPS FOR NWRN PA LOOK TOO HIGH WHILE MOS POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THINKING IS THAT MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE COVERED BY SMALL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE REGION. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH. THE LOWS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE COLD NW FLOW IS USED TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT QPF OVER NWRN PA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IT`S HARD TO BUY OFF ON THE HIGH SREF POPS...WITH THE LOWER GEFS CHANCE POPS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FAVORING THE AREA TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLEARFIELD UP TO ELMIRA IN SOUTHERN NY. THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL SEE MORE OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE SNEAKING OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE CHILLER THAN TODAY BY AN AVERAGE OF 3-5 DEG. REFRESHING BUT COOL FOR LATE SUMMER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A DEEP UPPER LVL LOW WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE SHOW A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. MID SHIFT PUT SOME SHOWERS IN...THUS I LEFT THEM IN. 12Z GFS40 SHOWS MORE RIDGING ALOFT...THUS HARD TO SEE MUCH GOING ON...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO SUNDAY. THE MAIN CHANGE I MADE WAS TO UP TEMPS SOME IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE OTHER CHANGE...WAS TO CLEAN UP THE LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR SOME PERIODS...ESPECIALLY NEXT MONDAY. SUSPECT THIS RESULTED FROM THE UPGRADE TO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM YESTERDAY...A NEW BUILD UPDATE. I COULD NOT FIND ANY GUIDANCE TODAY THAT WOULD SUPPORT ANYTHING THAT DRY WORKING SE INTO PA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH WHERE OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-3000` AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BACK TO 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY VFR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR STRATOCU WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BRADFORD...AND COULD EVEN WORK SOUTH INTO THE JOHNSTOWN TERMINAL...BUT IS NOT IN THEIR TAF AT THE MOMENT. OUTLOOK... WED...MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHOWERS NW MTNS. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX EXPECTED. THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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