Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 041600 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW BUT STEADY UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD FORCING AHEAD OF APPROAHING SHORT WAVE TROF COMBINES WITH...ALBEIT LIMITED...SFC HEATING. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BELIGHT BUT A FEW HEAVIER...SOAKING CELLS POSSIBLE AS ARE COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW BUT STEADY UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD FORCING AHEAD OF APPROAHING SHORT WAVE TROF COMBINES WITH...ALBEIT LIMITED...SFC HEATING. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BELIGHT BUT A FEW HEAVIER...SOAKING CELLS POSSIBLE AS ARE COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESSPREAD LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBS ATLEAT THROUGH THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN

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