Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260629 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 229 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonable late-September heat will continue until a sharp but dry cold front moves through late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Little rainfall is expected Cooler, fall-like weather will last few a few days before unusual warmth returns. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... High clouds swirling around the center of the upper high/ridge tonight. Temps have cooled quite a bit from the daytime heat, but there are no hints of fog just yet. Will keep mentioning fog for the valleys this morning, though. It is difficult to expect that what has been happening for many mornings will not occur again. However, the clouds may be just enough to stave off fog formation. Subsidence and lack of moisture will make it difficult for anything but flat cu to form today. But, still, the model guidance suggests that a stray shower is possible over the nrn tier this aftn. Will persist with the dry forecast due to lack of triggers and VERY warm temps aloft. Tough to believe that we could have another day of tickling the 90s in late Sept, but some valley locations could get there again today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... It should be mostly clear tonight, but clouds could form over the nrn tier as convergence increases and low level moisture will be high. The cold front nears from the NW during the morning, and could be as far as half way through the CWA by the end of the afternoon. The dewpoints will be in the m-u60s, so showers are possible. But, the upper heights/temps are so high/warm that CAPE remains extremely low. Will not tweak POPs much, and low is still the way to go. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The cold front will bring our first chance of rain in quite a while - though with the front weakening and falling apart as it moves through any scattered showers will remain light. Maria (remaining offshore of the Carolinas) will make it as far north as the NC/VA line before it takes its hard turn eastward and finally tracks away from the east coast. A bit more significant trough will approach for late week into the weekend, bringing a reinforcement of the cooler temperatures and a renewed chance for light yet scattered showers as the airmass remains quite dry. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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06Z TAFS sent. Expect some fog late, given dewpoints are similar yesterday. Widespread VFR conditions overnight. No reason to deviate from persistence with fog restrictions likely again after midnight into early Tuesday morning. Based on persistence and latest model data, believe a period of IFR/LIFR conditions are likely (mainly between 08Z-13Z) at KBFD/KIPT/KUNV/KAOO/KLNS, possible at KMDT and very unlikely at KJST. Wed...Patchy AM fog possible. Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri...Evening low cigs/showers possible KBFD/KJST Sat...AM low cigs possible KBFD/KJST.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Record-challenging late-September heat through today. Daily high temperature records for 9/26: Bradford: 79 in 1998 *Williamsport: 92 in 1900 Harrisburg: 91 in 1970 Altoona: 88 in 1998 *Williamsport maximum temperature records are under review for Saturday and Sunday 9/23-9/24. For Monday, the following high temperatures occurred. Harrisburg - 91 degrees. Williamsport - 91 degrees - old record was 89 degrees in 1970. Altoona - 87 degrees. Bradford - 85 degrees - old record was 83 degrees in 2007. Johnstown - 85 degrees.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin CLIMATE...Martin

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