Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 040226 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1026 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MIDWEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF PITTSBURGH TO JUST WEST OF STATE COLLEGE...AND IS TRACKING EAST AT A DECENT CLIP. EARLIER TALL CORES HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A BIT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKING SUB SEVERE AT THIS HOUR. BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WILL BE HOW PERSISTENT THE STORMS WILL BE IN THE FACE OF A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SCATTERED...NOT VERY ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z...WHEN ACTIVITY QUIETS DOWN RAPIDLY REGION-WIDE. BIGGEST REMAINING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE EAST-WEST BAND THAT IS PRETTY MUCH TRACKING DUE EAST. THE MOVEMENT IS FAIRLY RAPID SO FLOODING THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL UNLESS A LOCATION MANAGES TO GET HIT SEVERAL TIMES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NW TO MID 60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE SPARSE COVERAGE PRECLUDED MENTION IN TERMINALS AND WILL AMD AS NECESSARY. JST/AOO SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR TSTM IMPACTS GIVEN EVOLVING STORMS UPSTREAM OVER PIT/BTP VCNTY MOVG ESEWD. THE OTHER POTENTIAL AVN CONCERN IS IFR FOG OR LOW CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR WRN TAFS GIVEN COMBO OF WEAK UPSLOPE WLY FLOW AND NARROWING DEWPT DEPRESSIONS. ANY RAINFALL WILL ALSO AID IN POTNL REDUCED CONDS BY PROVIDING ADDNL LLVL MSTR. CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS AFT 06Z IS LOW ATTM BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF FOR THE 06Z SCHEDULED ISSUANCE. FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIGS 050 AND SFC WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS 16-22Z. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR. NO SIG WX. THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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