Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241855 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 255 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move over and east of the region today, paving the way for a frontal system that will approach overnight and Monday. High pressure will return for mid week. It will remain warm throughout the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Clouds have thinned over the region leading to another hazy-very warm to hot day with humidity starting to creep up from the west. A small MCS is moving east from Ohio and the latest HRRR keeps it going into my western zones by late afternoon. The airmass is still stable over most of the CWA with the best CAPE over the far swrn zones. I nudged pops up a bit but am still questioning the HRRR given its recent history with convection trying to invade our parched local area. I painted the highest pops over my western areas, tapering off to the east in anticipation of the convection drying up as it moves east. The overnight will become muggy with the threat for additional showers and thunderstorms, but the various models are in wide disagreement on where and when the highest threat will be. I kept the small mention of rain for the first half of the overnight with a slightly elevated chance after midnight in anticipation of the potential for upstream convection to track east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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Monday looks hazy hot and humid with dewpoints well up in the 60s and possibly even lower 70s over the southeast where the combination of heat and humidity warrants a heat advisory for the warmest hours of the afternoon. A weak cold front will provide enhanced convergence in an increasingly unstable airmass leading to the threat for some strong storms, especially in the afternoon when the SREF and GEFS pump CAPEs up to between 1500-2000J with a not unimpressive LLJ sliding into the forecast area. Any rain Monday will be very welcome, but probably not enough to put a dent in the widespread dry conditions we have been experiencing for the last several weeks.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus. Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress convection. Some modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a generally zonal flow. Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts areawide as another cool front progged to move through.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Widespread VFR will continue into the overnight. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening into the overnight will bring the chance for localized restrictions developing at terminals that become affected by the precipitation. A cold front/weak boundary will across the Great Lakes tonight and through PA on Monday. This will bring additional showers and thunderstorms into Monday evening, and perhaps into very early Tues morning. Some of the storms Monday afternoon and evening could be locally severe. High pressure returns for mid-week. OUTLOOK... TUE-WED...AM fog poss. Otherwise VFR. THU-FRI...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high in both IPT and MDT for today is 96F. Current high temp forecast for both locations is 94F. Considering the maxes of the past few days, the very dry soil and likely lack of thick high clouds today we could easily tie or nudge those records later this afternoon. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte CLIMATE...

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