Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250023 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 723 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 530 PM UPDATE... MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD. PREV... A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT. THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS. DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT IN BETTER WITH LWX. ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH. STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH. TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE. WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR ELSEWHERE. SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST. WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED. THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006- 010-011. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...JUNG

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