Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCTP 290354
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1154 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR AND MILDER WEATHER. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL HEAD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. TEMPS ON
TRACK WITH LITTLE DEVIATION EXPECTED FROM GOING FCST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. GRADIENT SLACKENS...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE LOWERING.
FOG NOT MUCH OF A WORRY. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND KEPT MENTIONS OF
SHRA TO THE NRN MTNS LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WRN HIGHLANDS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BY 09Z...ALL CYCLONIC CURVATURE SEEMS WELL TO
THE NE AND THERMAL TROUGH AT 8H OFF INTO ERN PA. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO DECREASE THE CLOUD COVERAGE EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT...ESP DOWN
WIND OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

PREV...
DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SPIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE
BRINGING ADDITIONAL/NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND WRN MTNS OF PENN INTO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE JUST A FEW...TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR TO A COLD SEASON NW FLOW
PATTERN WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND TO
THE SE OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 200 CORRIDOR WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO
MEASURABLE RAIN FROM JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...SO POPS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION HAVE BEEN SET AT
20 PERCENT OR LESS.

SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW
MTNS...WHILE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE
SUSQ VALLEY COMMUNITIES.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO AROUND
60F IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AND DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...THEN EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
REINFORCE A DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY THE
END OF TUESDAY/D3.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MISS
VALLEY AND NRN GLAKES REGION WILL DIG INTO IL/IN BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE UPPER OH VLY BY 00Z TUE.

MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY ON MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING ALTO CU CLOUDS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TSTMS DVLPG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS A MARGINAL TSTM RISK FOR ALL OF CENTRAL PA ON DAY 3
/TUESDAY/...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN SEASONALLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW...COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
PWAT AIR /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF PENN...ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A LIKELY DEVELOPING LEE SFC TROUGH/.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE BUT STILL AVG A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH AMERICA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER
NORTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER
48 --- PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED WILL MIGRATE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH...PROMOTING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL CHANNELING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EC/GEFS/GFS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER
GIVE THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
TRYING TO PICK A DAY OR PERIOD WITH `BETTER` ODDS FOR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES THOUGH ARE TRENDING UPWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DO SO INTO THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS DO DIVERGE
INTO NEXT WEEK AND THE SOLUTION BECOMES DIVERGENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS THE
REGION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KBFD AND KJST. MVFR CIGS EXIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY AREAS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST.

SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE LOWER
CLOUD DECK OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH IN REALATION TO THE LOW...AND UPSLOPE INTO THE
RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP CLOUDS HERE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF IFR/LIFR IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

AS WINDS SLACKEN...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AREAS EXPECIALLY WHERE
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ERODED TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD FOG VSBY RESTICTIONS INTO THE
TAFS...AS WINDS ARE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AT A RESPECTIBLE 5 TO
12 KNOTS IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD WINDS GO LIGHT OR
CALM...FOG FORMATION COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.

ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS WILL FADE AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST IN
THE NORTH AND WEST...POSSIBLY THROUGH 16Z/18Z.

UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS AFFECTING THE REGION
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...MORNING RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST...THEN GENERALLY VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.
THU-THU...AGAIN MAINLY VFR....BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA
AND POSSIBLE TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.