Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 290703
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
203 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS ALREADY
SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 03Z. BASED ON AFTERNOON DWPTS
AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT...EXPECT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES TO BOTTOM OUT BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UNDER SUCH AN IDEAL RAD COOLING SCENARIO...EXPECT WIDELY VARYING
MIN TEMPS...WITH 15F DIFFERENCES LIKELY WITHIN THE SAME
TOWNSHIPS. HAVE TRIED TO SETTLE ON AVG LOWS...WHICH WILL LKLY
RANGE FROM ARND ZERO ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 10 ABV ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING
IN RISING TEMPS LATE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A
LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
MVFR VSBYS AT BFD.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER


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