Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 260657
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST AND TRACK
OVER NRN PA/WRN NY STATE TODAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KCLE...ENE TO KELZ AND
KELM AT 06Z. EARLIER (AND PRESENT) CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF OUR CWA HAS LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS
SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED/LOW-TOPPED TSRA WERE SLIDING EAST
ALONG THIS OUTLFOW BOUNDARY EARLY TODAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIP COVERED THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL STAY QUITE MILD...IN
THE 50S...TO NEAR 60F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT SOME 15 TO 25 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE LOW-TOPPED TSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER THIS MORNING...
BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AS COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH.

CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY EXPAND FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA AS
MILDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES NE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A
2-3 SIGMA 850MB WESTERLY JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF PENN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND WILL SUPPORT AN INITIALLY
COMACT AREA OF 3-4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX. THIS AREA OF
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SFC CFRONT WILL COVER ABOUT THE SE THIRD OF
THE STATE AT 18Z.

THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE DEMARCATION
LINE BETWEEN MDTLY HIGH ML CAPES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.

SPC`S DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK AREA COVERS THE SE HALF OF PENN...BUT
UPGRADED FAR SERN PENN (INCLUDING YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES) TO
A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COMING IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ATTRIBUTED TO
30-50 KT WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING. MODELS SHOWING LOCAL PREFRONTAL 1000 J/KG CAPES ALONG
THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN.

TOTAL FCST RAINFALL FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM
TODAY WAS PAINTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN A GEFS/SREF
BLEND ACROSS APPROX THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE 6
HOURLY TOTALS THAT OCCURRED WITH THE MCS NOW TRACKING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND FAR NWRN OHIO.

COOL AIR REACHES THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS
THERE ONLY REACHING NEAR 60F. FARTHER SOUTH ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL
BE SEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED LOOKS DRY AND COOLER...AS A NE FLOW OF DRY AIR BUILDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A LARGE HIGH OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY.

A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME
RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA OUT OF WV MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS STILL ON FRIDAY. LEFT POPS IN.

STILL SOME HINTS OF A JET MAX DROPPING SE ON SAT...BUT REALLY
NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS STILL EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY.

MID SHIFT HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR LATER ON SUNDAY. YESTERDAY THE
EC WAS TOO FAST...STILL THAT WAY TODAY. LEFT POPS IN BUT DID LOWER
SOME FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT..DID EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE.

LOOKS WET AND COOL FOR MONDAY. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE SUPERBLEND WITH THE POPS.

CLEARING OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER
THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE
STORMS CONTINUE TO FADE AS THEY REACH THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF STORMS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE
MORNING...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. THAT LINE WILL BRING
MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TO BFD...JST...UNV AND AOO. WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
DRIER AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA TUE
AFTERNOON. THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT
AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND HAVE PUT LLWS FOR AOO...JST...BFD AND UNV
BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU



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