Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 281136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER GLAKES TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

ASIDE FROM AREAS OF CIRRUS DRIFTING NE OVERHEAD...SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY LIGHT VALLEY FOG FORMING.

THE FOG WILL EXPAND A LITTLE MORE...AND BECOME A BIT THICKER IN
THE RIVER/LARGE STREAM VALLEYS WITH VSBYS AOB 1/2SM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BETWEEN 09-13Z. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z-14Z.

LOWS AROUND SUNRISE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER PA TODAY.
THIS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR
AND WARM WEATHER. AS CUT OFF LOW OVR THE MIDWEST APPROACHES...A
SURGE OF WAA ALOFT WILL LIKELY SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
SATURDAY/S...WHICH WERE FROM THE M70S TO L80S.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE...TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST
/ABOUT THESE READINGS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON
COPY OF OUR CURRENT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS SUNDAY. LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY CREEPS NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PENN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY /AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CFRONT/. .

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE IT REMAINS DRY ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH FRI...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP AND BRING SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPS SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
EARLY MORNING DENSE VALLEY FOG WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS AOB LOCAL
AIRFIELD MINS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING BY 14Z. STLT SHOWS SCT-
BKN CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT. SOME
MORE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING FOG SEEMS LKLY AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT COULD BE TEMPERED BY THE HIGH CLOUDS. WILL SHOW
RESTRICTIONS AT ALL SITES EXPECT MDT AFT 06Z MONDAY WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE GIVEN PATTERN PERSISTENCE.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-THU...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DUE TO STRONGER
CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


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