Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 212000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
400 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A wavy cold front will move east of the area this evening,
followed by windy and showery conditions for tonight through
Saturday night. The first bout of lake effect and upslope rain
and snow showers are possible over some of the higher ridge tops.


The cold front is entering the lower Susq Valley as of 2 PM with a
broken line of heavy gusty showers. The more spotty and less
organized lighter rains continue to feed north behind the the
front ahead of the approaching upper trough. The HRRR keeps the
off an on rain going this evening before finally beginning to
wind down for the second half of the overnight. Existing flooding
issues are reportedly beginning to improve so most of the flood
watch has been canceled.

Something to consider for later tonight into early Saturday will
be the potential for the season`s first accumulating snows over
the RIDGETOPS of the Laurels and Northern Mountains. The guidance
has been persistent in bringing the coldest 850mb temps of the
season to date in behind our deep upper low. The potential for a
light slushy inch over the ridges is shown in the HRRR and NCAR
ensemble. The deterministic NAM and GFS are showing chances for
light accums over larger more general areas of the west and north,
this seems too generous given surface temps will be relatively
warm. Am thinking we will try to emphasize a light slushy accum
over the higher elevations only.


A cool and unsettled day is in store Saturday as persistent
northwest flow and progressively cooler boundary layer air is
forced into the region. In fact 850 mb temps remain
below 0 throughout the day throughout central PA...and we`ll
certainly be looking at a few wet snowflakes mixing in at times
with some of the showers over the higher terrain of the northwest
and northern mountains. Under scenarios such as what we expect,
the best chance for measurable precipitation usually favors these
western and northern higher terrain areas with little more than
sprinkles elsewhere.

Maxes will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower to
middle 50s southeast.


As the surface and mid level systems track through eastern Quebec,
a broad cyclonic/northwest flow pattern will continue into early
next week. Models forecast lingering deformation or lake-enhanced
pcpn to come to an end by early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will
should weaken a bit with peak gusts not as strong as Saturday.

Focus will shift upstream to a series of shortwaves diving
southeast from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the Northern
Mid Atlantic region. Models show some varying QPF solutions with
these features, but with limited moisture look for max amounts in
the 0.10 to 0.25 range over north-central PA. Following a brief
moderation in sfc- 850mb temps on Sunday, the aforementioned
shortwaves will bring a reinforcing shot of chilly air into the
area with below normal temps forecast into the middle of next
week. High pressure should provide dry weather Tue-Wed with pcpn
probs increasing toward the end of the week, with GFS/EC models
and ensembles showing a low pressure system reaching the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday.


Widespread IFR/MVFR will continue behind the front today and
overnight as a slow moving cold front slides east across the
flying area. The wind will turn the NW behind and become gusty in
the 10-20kt range today.


Sat...Scattered showers with restrictions NW. gusty NW wind

Sun...No sig wx.

Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW.

Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx.




NEAR TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
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