Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 141955
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
355 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC OBS AND SAT IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN LOCATIONS.
LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS WELL JUST
AHEAD OF AREA OF PCPN NOW MOVING INTO WRN PA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BEST RETURNS JUST ON THE DOOR STEP OF
BRADFORD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD REACH GREATER BRADFORD
WITH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND A FEW SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE REST OF THE WRN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BETTER THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL THIS EVENING.

WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THE TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MEANS
THERE WILL BE A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. IF THE
FRONT IS FAST...LOWS OVER THE NW COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN I
CURRENTLY PORTRAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE SAME
BIG TEMP BUST POTENTIAL OF TONIGHT. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS SHOW A
VERY TIGHT PACKING OF THE COLD AIR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO SMALL
TIMING PROBLEMS WILL MEAN RELATIVELY BIG TEMP SWINGS AS THE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST.

A COUPLE OF OTHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND TO FORM...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH IF ANY
SNOW MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE ON THE COLD AIR SIDE OF THE WAVY COLD
FRONT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SWINGS
THROUGH...WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST THESE FRONTS TAKE ON STRONG
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION AND
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS PROGGED 850-500MB WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 45-60KT MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

THEN THE...SNOW...YUK! COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH/CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...I AM THINKING THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MEANING THE
CHANGE- OVER WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART
WHICH IS USUALLY VITAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT A COATING TO A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND ROAD CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
IN THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN OUR HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE GROWING SEASON STARTING ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 15TH FOR
SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY...HAVE COORDINATED WITH
LWX/PHI ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONCERN IS FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES /25-30F/ ADVERSELY IMPACTING EARLY-BLOOMING/SENSITIVE
VEGETATION. IT IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS..BUT NONETHELESS PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT EARLY-SEASON PLANTS AND CROPS.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE FOR WED NGT INTO EARLY
THURS...IN A MORE TYPICAL FROST/FREEZE REGIME WITH CLR SKIES AND
LGT/VRB WINDS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND STRENGTHEN
TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SET UP AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH MARITIME REGIME POSSIBLY ADVECTING LOW
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ INTO THE SERN ZONES. MORE
UNSETTLED WX APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS
TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS THURS-MON...BUT LKLY STILL AVG
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW OVER OHIO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA TONIGHT. AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSCD LOW CIGS WILL ADVANCE ON KBFD AND KJST BY
00Z AND THEN AIRFIELDS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AFTER SUNSET AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS ARRIVED CIGS WILL QUICKLY
FALL INTO IFR RANGE AND MAINTAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AT WESTERN
AIRFIELDS...KJST/KBFD AND BY LATE MORNING IN THE EAST
KIPT/KMDT/KLNS.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED FROM TUE AFT...INTO WED AM. VERY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.

WED INTO FRIDAY LOOKS OK AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...
.TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS...ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS.
.WED-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER


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