Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 230346
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1146 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT
WE ARE LIKELY SO SEE UNTIL OCTOBER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH
AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF OVER THE NW AND THE TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN
IN THE LOWER 40S. PREVIOUS REASONING LOOKS GOOD WITH THE WIND
DROPPING OFF IN MOST AREAS ALLOWING FOR A LATE SPRING FROST/FREEZE
UNDER NEARLY PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DROP TO THE 33 TO 36 RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGE-
VALLEY AREAS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN MANY LOCATIONS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW COOP
OBSERVERS AND MESO OB SITES COME IN AROUND 20F ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MCKEAN...ELK AND POTTER COUNTIES.

THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL TEETER AROUND THE 32F MARK AT SUNRISE
SATURDAY...BUT MOST OF THE POPULATION THERE SHOULD SEE LOWS OF
33 OR 34F WITH FROST ALMOST A CERTAINTY.

THESE COLD TEMPS WILL APPROACH OR DROP BELOW RECORD LOWS IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO JUST ESCAPE A RECORD LOW BY
1-3 DEG WOULD BE THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A LIGHT NW BREEZE
COULD PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS THERE WILL BE IN
THE U30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME RURAL COLD SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY
FROST WITH A SAT MORNING MIN OF 35 OR 36 DEG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SAT MORNING WILL DRIFT SE TO
THE DELMARVA COAST BY SAT EVENING. VERY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY
AROUND 0.25 INCH AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WIND.

MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO AROUND 70F IN THE SOUTH WILL
STILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AGAIN SAT
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW PLACES IN NRN
PENN COULD SEE A PATCHY LIGHT FROST TWD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT
NOTHING CLOSE TO WHAT/S IN STORE FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER A COOL START...SUNDAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A ROBUST WARM-
UP THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SIGNALS THIS
WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STILL IN THE 40S. HARD TO SEE MUCH
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF PA...IN
AREA OF BETTER WARM ADVECTION.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY.

AT THE SAME TIME...500 MB HEIGHTS COME UP...AS THE UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS.

WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST OBS SHOW GUSTY WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF AND SHOULD BECOME
LGT AND VRBL THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

MON-WED...VFR WITH ISOLD/LOW RISK OF TSTM IMPACTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017-018-037-041-042.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024>028-033-
034-045-046-049>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



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