Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 110748 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 248 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... IN THE NEAR TERM...OUR LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...MORE OR LESS ALONG THE LINES OF THE HIGH RES MESO MODELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THIS FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES. THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290 DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD COUNTIES. LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL- ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP. A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS AT KBFD/KJST THIS MORNING. A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH LYING ACROSS CENTRAL PA WILL ALSO PRODUCE OCNL IFR VSBYS AT KUNV UNTIL IT/S PASSAGE ARND 11Z. AFTER PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH...EXPECT A TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT REGIME BTWN 11Z-17Z...WITH PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS FROM LGT SNOW AT KBFD/KJST...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT KAOO/KUNV AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AT THE LOWER ELEV AIRFIELDS FURTHER EAST...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS. SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DWINDLE BY THIS AFTN...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDS RETURNING TO KBFD/KJST AND VFR ELSEWHERE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVR THE REGION IS ALREADY PRODUCING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS AT KJST EARLY THIS AM...AND MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIMILAR GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY LATE AM...AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY ALLOWS WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND LEVEL. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS. SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ010-017-024-033.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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