-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 091003
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
603 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LATE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA...LEAVING A SHIELD OF
STRATOCU CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. DRY AIR AND CLEARING CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE LOOPS WORKING INTO WESTERN PA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. I EXPECT TODAY TO START A BIT ON
THE GRAY SIDE...BUT WITH IMPROVING SKIES AS THE DAY WEARS ON. IT
WILL BE COLDER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REBOUND BACK NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NORTH...AND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S OVER THE SOUTH. A RETURN TO THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WE
HAVE SEEN SO MUCH OF THIS WINTER.

A WEAK CLIPPER FLYING BY TO OUR NORTH MAY TRIGGER A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OVER THE NY BORDER COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE FAIR WITH JUST SOME TENDENCY FOR MORE CLOUDS
AS THE CLIPPER APPROACHES. THE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTH OF SIDE OF THE CLIPPER WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS THE CLIPPER SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...THE MORNING WILL
FEATURE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE AREA NORTH OF I-80. THE AFTERNOON LOOKS SPLENDID
HOWEVER AS WE BREAK OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE SEE TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE 40S AND 50S. I LIMITED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST TO
THE UPPER 50S...BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 60 DEGREE
READINGS OVER THE SE AS WESTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILARLY FAIR AND MILD...A SORT OF CALM BEFORE OUR
NEXT WINTER STORM THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO ACCORD ON THE MID WEEK SCENARIO.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A TROUGH DEEPENING TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE
TENN VALLEY THROUGH VA/SRN PA...THEN TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS AS A DEVELOPING GALE.

THE SET UP HAS US STARTING OFF RATHER MILD MAKING THE INITIAL
PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TO BE RAIN. BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW BEGIN TO DEEPEN...COLDER AIR IS DRAGGED DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING ABOUT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW/SLEET...WINTRY MIX. AT THIS
RANGE IT`S AN IMPOSSIBLE CALL TO DRAW LINES...BUT IT APPEARS
CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW AS THE COLD AIR SWEEPS IN WEDNESDAY INTO WED
EVENING.

AS WE HAVE SEEN COUNTLESS TIMES THIS WINTER...ANOTHER CHUNK OF
COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM. IT WILL BE WINDY AND DESPITE BEING A WEEK AWAY FROM
SPRING...IT WILL FEEL ANYTHING BUT SPRING-LIKE.

THE WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL FAVORS A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH ISN`T
FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS IN SPOTS...BUT THESE SHOULD BREAK UP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IT IS BREEZY OUT...AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFT HOURS.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE ON THE BRISK SIDE
AGAIN. PERHAPS A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NW MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON WED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN OR SNOW.
THU...WINDY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN