Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250245 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1045 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large area of high pressure near James Bay Canada will drift south and become centered over the northeastern US Sunday. Expect fair weather with warm days and cool nights through the rest of this weekend. A cold front will push through the region late Monday and Monday night. Dry weather will return for the rest of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Skies are clear and winds are light, setting the stage for a night of efficient radiational cooling. A true taste of autumn will be in the air tonight as temps drop off into the mid to upper 30s in the northern mountains, and 40s elsewhere. Expect patchy frost throughout the rural valleys of the north and normal cold spots. With the recent prolonged period of very much above normal temperatures, this will be quite a shock to some. Light north winds tonight will become light and variable in the deeper valleys. This light wind combined with clear skies and a greater than 20 deg air/water temperature difference will likely lead to development of fog that could become locally dense. The cold air draining into the river valleys will then set up a battle between the river valley fog and frost. These two phenomena are rarely coincident.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday should be stellar with low dewpoints, spectacular visibility, and just a few clouds after the valley fog lifts. After the chilly start, temperatures will rebound to around normal. Some high clouds will slide down from the NW Sunday night. These could have just a minor effect on temps. Guidance says that it should be quite a bit milder in the west Sunday night vs. Sat night. Will stay close to these numbers. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Clouds increase Monday ahead of significant cold front headed our way. Recent guidance continues to speed up the timing of the front. Have adjusted things accordingly and split up the wx grids. This then puts the timing of showers during the afternoon/evening in the west. Showers should be out ahead, however given the instability, diurnal heating have put in thunder possible with this timing. Certainty of rainfall for most of the area has climbed into the 60-70pct range. This will be much needed rainfall, with highest amounts Monday Night. Based on latest data have increased QPF amounts, especially where thunder is possible. The front should be through by Tuesday morning. Will linger only chc POPs in the far SE and keep them in the far NW for lake- effect and/or cool air aloft instability showers for mid- week. Temps should stay very normal for the balance of the week, though cooler. There will be another extended period of dryness. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Clear skies and light wind across central Pa this evening, as high pressure builds into the state. Don`t expect extensive fog development tonight, given the dryness of air mass. However, cool temps and relatively warm river/stream water should result in some fog late tonight in the deep valleys of north central Pa. Current thinking is that no airfields will be affected, but can`t rule out a brief vis reduction at KBFD or KIPT with even less confidence at KUNV. Sunday...High confidence in widespread VFR after 14Z, which will continue through Sunday night. Outlook... Mon...PM showers/Tstms with reductions possible. Tue-Thu...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Dangelo/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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