Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221936 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM ADVECTION WILL TOUCH OFF VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN PA TODAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BEFORE TRENDING COLDER BY THANKSGIVING DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAIN SLUG OF RAIN IS STARTING TO GET EATEN UP BY THE DRY AIR AS IT GETS REALLY FAR AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE SOURCE. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 30F IN THE WEST BUT TEENS PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL/WEST. GROUND BARELY WET OUT THE WINDOW. BUT MULTIPLE ACCIDENTS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE ISSUED A NEW FZ RA ADVY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN BECOMES MORE-SPOTTY VERY SHORTLY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE FORCING/PVA WILL SOON BE TO THE EAST. WILL CARRY MAINLY LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH AND TAPER IT TO JUST CHCS ALONG I-80 AND JUST TO THE SOUTH. A TAIL OF HIGHER VORTICITY WILL LINGER ON TOP OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN MTS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO KEEP GOING ALONG THE NRN BORDER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANY POCKETS OF SUB-FZG AIR SHOULD BE GONE AFTER THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN EXITS. DESPITE THE WIND DROPPING OFF - TEMPS SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY AND THEN STABILIZE AFTER DARK AND LAST THE REST OF THE NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT DIP IN THE SE IS ANTICIPATEDLATER AT NIGHT TO AROUND FZG. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP GOOD SRLY FLOW GOING. EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE 30S SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RUN AT 50F ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE SNOWPACK IN THE FAR NW COULD THEN KEEP THEM IN THE 40S. THE HEIGHTS RISE FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE BRINGS HIGHER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A WIDESPREAD. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG TOUGH IN THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPOTTY/LIGHT PCPN OVER THE NRN TIER SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITHIN ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX AND LOW-MID LVL WAA ASSOCD WITH 40-50KT WSW LLJ ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE ERN GREAT LAKES MAY PROVIDE ADDNL LIFT. PTYPES ARE FCST TO BE PLAIN RAIN OVER THE NW ZONES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN -ZR OVER THE NERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE 2M TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 32F PER MULTI-MODEL/MOS BLEND. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOUDY...MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY WX ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. PHASING OF SPLIT-STREAM ENERGY WILL YIELD A DEEP 980MB LOW /-3 TO -4 STD MSLP/ LIFTING NWD THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA ON MONDAY. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SUN NGT. RAISED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ABOVE WPC AND IN-LINE WITH THE MEAN ECENS MOS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL /NEAR RECORD HIGHS/ BEFORE THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT USHERS IN COLDER AIR. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN COLDER TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING AS THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING PERSISTENCE OF THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. FINALLY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE WAVES DEVELOPING IN THE WRN ATLC DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MSTR SHIELD MAY CONTAIN SNOW. SOLUTIONS FROM THE 00Z SAT SUITE ARE STILL VERY MUCH MIXED...WITH GEFS SOLUTIONS LARGELY FOCUSED ON A MOSTLY OFFSHORE STORM TO AFFECT THE FISHES...WHILE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD INLAND SNOWFALL IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY... ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE- SPOTTY...WITH ONLY KBFD HANGING ONTO THE SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL END THE CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE RAIN HAS MOISTENED UP THE LOWER ATMOS. BUT FLOW KEEPS MILD AIR MOVING IN AND THIS COULD KEEP THEM LOW FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. LLWS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP - ONLY KBFD HAS A POSS - BUT IT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. OUTLOOK... MON...MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. WED...MVFR/IFR POSS EAST. VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO

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