Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251631 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1231 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough will slide to the Northeast U.S. coast this afternoon. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast from the Great Lakes and become centered over the Middle Atlantic Region on Wednesday. A cold front will likely push southeast across the region late thursday night through Friday morning. Another shot of unseasonably cool but mainly dry air will follow for the upcoming weekend as a large area of high pressure builds southeast from the Great Lakes Region && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... Low level thermal trough was located right over the region late this morning, while warmer air was advecting into the region in the mid levels. This vertical thermal profile will help to maintain plenty of mainly shallow strato cu with sprinkles scattered across the central and nrn mtns. A few brief showers could drop a quick 0.01 or 0.02 of an inch, but that will be about the extent of it in the QPF dept until Thursday afternoon or night. The clouds should slowly break from SW to NE late this afternoon. High pressure will gradually build in from the great Lakes Region late today and tonight, as the coolest air aloft shifts east of the CWA with llvl downsloping helping to dry out the boundary layer SE of the I-99/RT 220 corridor. Overall, expect a much more pleasant airmass with comfortable humidity acrs the region for the rest of today, with little to no chance of measurable rain for a change. Across the east, an inverted sfc trough/marine layer boundary will be located mainly to the east of the Susq valley and bring with it a slight enhancement to llvl theta-e convergence and the slight chc for an afternoon shower. Clouds will continue to thin out and retreat north late today/this evening. Max temps this afternoon will vary from the mid and upper 60s across the northern mtns to the upper 70s across much of the SE part of the CWA. These readings will be 5-8 deg F below normal with the greatest departures occurring across the NW mtns. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will build over the region late tonight and Wednesday, bringing clear to partly cloudy skies and dry/cool conditions tonight, followed by a quite spectacular mid-summer day for most places Wednesday - with abundant sunshine a light southeast to south breeze, comfortable humidity and slightly below normal temps. The lone concern will be associated with a marine layer and easterly flow near and to the east of the Susq Valley that could bring some clouds and a slight chance of a shower into the eastern zones Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Little change in the Extended details today as warm advection and return moisture regime continues Wed night and Thursday. This leads to an increasing chance for shra/tsra by late Thursday afternoon and night as cold front crosses the region. A severe threat will accompany this, with SLGT Risk covering the southeast 2/3 of central PA on Day3. It appears that a wave will ripple up along the front and stall its eastward progress on Friday, giving another day of showers and thunderstorms to especially central and southeast sections. This development was alluded to yesterday, and overnight models continued the trend. In fact, some solutions linger the wave into the first part of Saturday as weak high pressure building over Lake Michigan may be too far west to nudge the baroclinic zone to our east. Conditions eventually dry out later Saturday and Saturday night as high pressure builds in. Sunday and Monday appear dry at this time.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Axis of a mid and upper-level trough overhead late this morning will lift off to the east as the afternoon progresses. At the surface, high pressure already building in from the west will take control through midweek. Dealing with lingering post-frontal NW flow and resultant cloud cover late this morning as building surface high squeezes moisture under strengthening and gradually lowering subsidence inversion, creating MVFR Cigs over the west/north (and even a few light showers around BFD) and mainly VFR stratocu across the central mtns and Susq Valley. Winds will be from the NW around 10mph early, shifting to the north at 5-10mph midday. Could see a return of restrictions with a stratocu deck over the northern mountains tonight (and maybe a lower deck edging into the Susq Valley from the east), but elsewhere only expecting some valley fog to develop (even though dewpoints bottom out tonight, there remains a good bit of ground moisture around from recent rains). This fog will likely impact several terminals toward sunrise Wed. Otherwise, Wednesday should bring good flying weather with VFR conditions and light winds turning around to the east then south as high pressure slides off to the east. Scattered thunderstorms return for Thursday. .OUTLOOK... Wed...AM cig restrictions north. AM Patchy valley fog areawide. Otherwise no sig wx. Thu...Scattered afternoon/evening TSRA/SHRA. Fri...Slgt chc of morning shra...otherwise VFR. Sat...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...DeVoir AVIATION...RXR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.