Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 050102 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 902 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVR EASTERN PA...WHERE LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO NW PA IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S. THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS FROM KUNV/KIPT EASTWARD ARND SUNSET. MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVR THE AREA FROM THE GRT LKS. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND...WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS GOING INTO THE EVENING ALL POINT TOWARD A FOGGY NIGHT...ESP WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BENEATH SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET GROUND AND LACK OF MIXING BENEATH SFC HIGH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS. INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS. ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN. THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY. DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUE. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST 4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LAST REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENDING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOW CLOUDS AROUND LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST....WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTER TAF SITES. WITH SETTING OF SUN/COOLING TEMPS AND VERY MOIST LEVELS NEAR SFC...EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FORMATION OF FOG. MVFR AND IFR THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST AREAS IF NOT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONDS. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS OFF. OUTLOOK... MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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