Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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622 FXUS61 KCTP 281151 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 751 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will move along the Mason-Dixon line through tonight...bringing showers to central PA and isolated thunderstorms to southeastern sections today. High pressure will build down out of southern Canada and bring cooler and drier weather for Wednesday and Thursday. A new storm system will approach for the end of this week with the potential for more inclement weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Scattered to numerous showers have now overspread central and western PA this morning, with isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder having been seen across the Lower Susq River Valley over the past 90 minutes. As expected, regional radar mosaic shows a broad swatch of showers extending from northeast Ohio to the Northwest PA Mountains in the vicinity of persistent 850-700 frgn forcing...and this area will be the wettest throughout the day. Most areas will see at least scattered showers today...eastern and northeast areas seeing the least as sfc low pressure tracks ESE across the southern tier of PA. The sfc low tracks first into southwest PA later this morning then propagates ESE to the Chesapeake Bay region by tonight. Clouds and rain will keep highs over the northwest in the mid to upper 50s. Farther south sct to nmrs showers are expected across the central and south central portions of the commonwealth. Thin breaks in the overcast will allow temps to range generally in the lower 60s. Along the southern tier, readings will range from the upper 60s to perhaps the low 70s if warm sector manages to lift north of the PA/MD border. The guidance still continues to indicate instability lingering over southeastern and south central areas through this afternoon, and will maintained slgt chc thunder there with just General thunder outlooked. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Showers will be on the decrease this evening as the low exits off of the mid Atlantic coast. Slightly cooler and drier air will overspread the region overnight...but there may be areas of fog due to the widespread daytime rainfall. Mins will range from the lower 30s north to the mid 40s south. Wednesday should be a relatively nice day (though with some mdt northerly wind gusts at times, as high pressure builds in from the northwest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The dry air and high pressure are in all of the most recent guidance, implying Wed ngt and Thursday will remain dry and pleasant. High pressure, dry air, and normal to slightly below normal 850 hPa and 925 hPa temperatures imply near normal daytime highs. Most of the 26/00-06Z U.S. and int`l model guidance (and EFS) indicates more of southern...shearing storm track for late in the week...thanks to a stronger and more wwd position of a deep nrn stream vortex across the Canadian Maritimes. The trend of the big model discrepancy for late this week and this weekend (between the GFS and EC over the past several days) has trended toward the GFS and its ENS members with southern stream energy and its moisture being prevented from amplifying with an associated storm track to our west. Rather, what we see is a shift of the primary southern stream sfc low track to our south as the potent midweek southern stream sfc/upper low (that will be trying to take the turn northeast across the Mid Miss Valley twd the Great Lakes) encounters great resistance from the notably stronger WNW upper jet core defining the northern stream that will be situated from the Upper Glakes to the Mid Atl Coast. With this type of consensus storm track, pops will be somewhat less for Friday and Saturday (compared to a heavily weighted EC/ECENS solution) and limited to mainly the southern half of PA where some rain (or even an elevation-dependent rain/wet snow mix) with expansive cooler and drier air north of PA. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lowering cig/vis trend continues this morning with widespread MVFR to LIFR. Rain showers overspread the airspace through mid morning and continues through the afternoon before tapering off from NW to SE this evening/into tonight. A drier northerly flow should translate into improving conditions on Wednesday. Outlook... Wed...A.M. restrictions; becoming VFR. Thu...VFR/No sig wx. Thu Night-Fri...Sub-VFR restrictions/rain likely. Sat...Gradually improving conditions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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