Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 030318 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1118 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WETTER AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... WE HAVE A FEW THIN CIRRUS BLEEDING OFF INTO NRN PA FROM AN MCS DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL STILL ENJOY A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AS THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP BLYR FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING AND SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD SNEAK INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE PART OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE MONDAY. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMING OF THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE PER THE LATEST SREF...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL HAVE FAIRLY STRONG...AND WELL-ALIGNED -06 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM 25-35 KTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...TO 40-50 KTS INVOF OF THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE UVVEL CLOSE TO THE FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE ONE OR MORE BKN TSRA LINES CONTAINING ENHANCED BOWS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE AS DCAPES SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH AND LCL/S AOA 1KM AGL IN MOST PLACES. TEMPS WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE U70S TO L80S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. READINGS COULD TOUCH 90F IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE DOWN FROM THE NW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG THE BEFORE MENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO STALL ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD NOT ONLY ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BUT THE BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AS A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY FORMS THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE MOVED THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH SO THE QUESTION REMAINS IF IT WILL FORM HERE OR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS THE EVENT MOVES CLOSER. HOWEVER THE LOW SITTING OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP TUMULTUOUS WEATHER IN THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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03/03Z UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 00Z TAFS. 03/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCALIZED FOG/BR VSBY RESTRICTIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AIRSPACE WHERE THE BLYR MAY DECOUPLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. LLWS AT BFD 06-12Z MON AS 40-50KT SWLY LLJ PRECEDES COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GRT LKS. TSTM COMPLEX MOVG SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL BRING SOME LYRD MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE NW AIRSPACE. FOR MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LKS AND MOVE THROUGH THE AIRSPACE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CFROPA AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA 40KTS. WILL USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 18-22Z TO SHOW TSTM IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS. OUTLOOK... TUE...VFR. VERY ISOLD P.M. SHRA PSBL XTRME NRN AIRSPACE. WED...VFR. NO SIG WX. THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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