Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210153 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 953 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring warm weather to Pennsylvania through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Clear and very warm conditions throughout this evening. Visible imagery shows just a few shallow cu dying over the north central mountains at present. Clear skies overnight with areas of fog redeveloping in the early morning hours. Low temperatures falling back into the 50s and 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Ridge holding strong again Thursday and Thursday night. Look for fog quickly dissipating in the morning followed a sunny and warm afternoon. Areas of fog form again in the early morning hours on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Beyond the midweek temperatures and the pattern remains stable as a building ridge continues to stifle any convection. weak flow at night should allow for valley fog to form nightly and to greet morning commuters. The overall consensus in the models through the weekend is for the 590 dam closed 500 hPa high will drift slowly out of the midwest states, and become centered over western PA by late this weekend through early next week. Ensemble temperatures are in general consensus and high temps through the weekend will be 10-15F above normal with little or no chance of rain until Monday at the very earliest. There are hints that what was left of Jose could bring moisture and thus some rainfall through Monday into Tuesday. However there continues to be model variability so have only chance POPS. Lows early each morning will be consistently in the mid and upper 50s across the northern and western mtns, to lower 60s in the larger SE metro areas. Min temps may cool off slightly for this weekend thanks to deep dry air and a light N to NW llvl flow of drier dewpoint air at the sfc. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue until the pre-dawn hours, when valley fog reforms (similar to past nights) only to dissipate an hour or two after sunrise with a return back to VFR conditions. Look for this pattern of early morning fog to repeat Friday and Saturday mornings, with a bit less fog coverage each day. Winds will remain light. .Outlook... Thu-Mon...Patchy valley fog possible each morning. Otherwise VFR with generally light winds and minimal clouds.
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&& .CLIMATE... Astronomical Fall/Autumnal Equinox begins at 4:02 PM Friday September 22, 2017. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...RXR CLIMATE...

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