Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 060655 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 255 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IN FROM THE NE. A FAIRLY HEAVY BATCH OF RAIN HAS RECENTLY MOVED OVER HUNTINGDON AND HEADED FOR BEDFORD. RADAR ESTIMATES PUT UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL RIGHT IN HUNTINGDON. VERY LIGHT PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THERE. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC PLACES THE HEAVIEST RAIN JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE AND IT IS SLIDING TO THE WNW. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE CREEPING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AS IT DOES SO...WE SHOULD HAVE A RICH FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THUS...HIGH POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE PWATS ARE STILL GOING TO BE UNDER AN INCH. WITHOUT MUCH BETTER WATER CONTENT...THE RAIN SHOULD STAY LIGHT-MODERATE. THE STEADIEST PERIOD RAIN SHOULD START IN THE E/SE RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL PA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SO THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS FROM E-W THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS...BUT NONE SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY TALL CELLS. STILL EXPECT NO FLOODING ISSUES SINCE IT IS ALL PRETTY GENTLE AND NO RIVERS/STREAMS ARE RUNNING EVEN CLOSE TO HIGH/BANKFULL. CLOUDS SHOULD STAY PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE - AND EVEN NUDGE A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AND INTO NWRN PA. TEMPS SHOULD RISE A LITTLE...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE SERN COS WHERE THE RAIN STARTS RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NW WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO POKE ABOVE 60F. BUT MOST WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S AGAIN TODAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW ON SAT. THERE MIGHT BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP ON SAT IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE SOME SEASONABLY MILD AIR IN FROM THE SW. MAXES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/FRONT. WILL JUST MENTION SOME TS IN THE LATE AFTN IN THE W AND CARRY IT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. AGAIN...MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. LITTLE/NO RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING. THE 8H TEMPS FROM 10-12C DOWN TO AROUND A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN A LOW PROB OVER NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TROUGH EVENTUALLY COMES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN LARGE. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
06/06Z TAFS THROUGH 07/06Z | ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT 05/06/16 LGT-MOD RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL WRAP FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE AIRSPACE TODAY AROUND UPPER LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL TREND LOWER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT LOW CIGS/FOG/DZ WILL REMAIN. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LKLY BY SATURDAY AFTN AS LLVL WINDS SHIFT TO 230-260 DEGREES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MARGINAL VFR CONDS AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE CFROPA 03-09Z SUN. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-TUESDAY SUN-MON...VFR/NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS/MVFR PSBL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...STEINBUGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.