Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280218 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1018 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will move east of the area overnighit. Scattered light sprinkles or flurries could linger over the northwestern mountains overnight, otherwise dry weather can be expected late tonight through Saturday as high pressure builds across the area. Unseasonably warm conditions will return by Saturday with highs in the 60s to mid 70s. The next cold front will bring a chance of showers to the area Saturday night or Sunday.
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With showers having moved east of my area late this evening...clouds and cool northwesterly breezes will linger behind the departing system overnight. Lake cloud streamers aligning over northwest PA as per KCCX radar and may produce sprinkles or flurries overnight as 850 mb temperatures fall to around -4 or -5 C. Model forecast soundings show rapid drying of the profile toward morning so not expecting any significant lake response with this system. Elsewhere clouds will gradually lift overnight with some breaks developing east of the mountains in the Susquehanna River Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... High pressure will build east across the area on Friday with clearing early in the day east of the mountains and by afternoon over the mountains. Gusty northwest winds will diminish during the day as the high pressure builds over the area. Friday night will be mainly clear with light winds under high pressure. Mild weather will return on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures forecast to rise back above +10 allowing surface temperatures to climb into the 60s with 70s east of the mountains. The next front approaching from the northwest may trigger a few showers over the northern mountains late in the day, with showers spreading southeast across the state Saturday night as the front drops south from the Great Lakes toward Pennsylvania. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models are in good agreement with a mild and reasonably quiet weather pattern through the period. Showers are possible on Sunday as a slow moving cold front sags south across the area. High pressure will bring dry conditions with near seasonable temperatures on Monday... highs will be mostly in the 50s with some 60s in the southeast. High pressure over the southeast U.S. will bring dry mild weather Tuesday through Wednesday with temperatures returning to above normal levels. ECMWF/GFS and GEFS are in good overall agreement with this pattern and confidence is above normal. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front is entering my eastern zones leading to widespread IFR/MVFR conditions along with a few scattered showers. As the front progresses east of the area later this evening, a gusty WNW flow will develop. The IFR/MVFR will improve to VFR east of the mountains at MDT and LNS while MVFR conditions will tend to linger at UNV and AOO with IFR/MVFR conditions persisting in the mountains at BFD and JST. A few sprinkles or flurries could even occur at BFD overnight. Conditions will improve to mostly MVFR at JST and BFD by Friday afternoon with VFR elsewhere. A west-northwest wind will average 10-20 kt with a few higher gusts tonight continuing through Friday. Outlook... Sat...No sig wx expected. Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, esp N and W. Mon-Tue...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Martin NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...Martin LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...La Corte is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.