Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271352 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 852 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9 AM UPDATE... TEMPS SHOULD SOON START TO RISE QUICKLY...ESP IN THE EAST WHERE THE CALM AIR HAD SETTLED IN EARLY THIS MORNING. FULL MIXING WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW TODAY...BUT 9H TEMPS SO MILD THAT CURRENTLY FCST MAXES ARE WELL ON TRACK. PREV... HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE SLIDES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR ENOUGH TO PERMIT ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. MILD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS LATE IN THE YEAR. MANY AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL TOP OUT ABOVE 50 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS INCREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THEIR WARMEST READING OVERNIGHT OR DURING THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEGINS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS THE CWA AND WHETHER A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH COOLING 850 TEMPS...A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE IF THIS WAVE DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH. AT THIS POINT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ONLY GIVES THE SE ZONES A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT AS OUR FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH. SOME WEAK STRATOCU HAS FORMED OVER THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER IT WILL LINGER AROUND MVFR CIGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR BY MID MORNING. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IT SHOULD BEGIN AT BFD BETWEEN OOZ AND 06Z. THEN AT JST BETWEEN 06Z TO 09Z...BEFORE AFFECTING AOO...IPT AND UNV 09Z TO 12Z. MDT AND LNS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE RESTRICTIONS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IFR AT BFD AND JST IS PROBABLE...BUT MAINLY AFTER 09Z. REDUCING CONDITIONS SHOULDN/T LAST TO LONG...WITH SKIES LIFTING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SAT NITE-SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MON-WED...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS/DANGELO SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...CERU

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