Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 010701 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 301 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID- LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI. EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE. TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE RESTRICTIONS WHERE BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE OR CURRENTLY ARE SEEING IFR AND LOWER. IPT WILL SEE CONDITIONS VARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE PATCHY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH TO PERSIST. UNV...AOO...LNS AND MDT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IF ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS DECOUPLE WITH CALM WINDS FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A MAIN CONCERN BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU

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