Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 222158
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to
persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period.
A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of
the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun.
Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical
fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through
D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is
expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated
fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is
progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of
the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely,
continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering
over the southern/central Plains.

...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon...
Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis
is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong
agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of
southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected
across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of
the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air
ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall
near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies.
While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with
the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the
low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX
Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of
30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent
rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap
with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting
extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur,
with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A
wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front
begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially
exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70%
probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more
robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance.

Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur
into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX
Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH
around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions.

...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed...
Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty
northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM.
Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below
20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble
guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some
risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions.

...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri...
As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern
Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the
central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to
develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in
medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper
trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the
combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20%
appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather
potential through the end of the extended forecast period.

..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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