Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 160838
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
338 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS OF EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH AND WEST
TOWARD THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL CONTINUE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE BORDER
REGION LATE TODAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES.

AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE NORTHLAND.
AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND WE BUMPED POPS UP A TAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL AID IN
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...BUT WE
KEPT SOME LOW POPS AROUND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY. THE
FGEN IS NOT AS STRONG AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY...AND INCREASE
QUITE A BIT OVER/NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER SIXTIES FROM BRAINERD TO PARK FALLS...TO
THE UPPER FORTIES OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD..WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING THE STRONG S/W
TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

NW FLOW ALOFT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE WED
NIGHT/THUR. DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITH TIME..THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.  NONETHELESS..CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SOMETIME THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY ACROSS NRN MN IN AREA OF MOST SUSTAINED LIFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS LEAD COLD FRONT ACT AS A FOCUS FOR WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

MUCH STRONGER S/W TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND CLOSE OFF A
FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD/THUNDER BAY REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  WHILE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE DULUTH CWA BY THIS TIME..WRAP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT
PARTS OF NRN MN..WITH COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING OF POST FRONTAL STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PERSISTING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY.

THEREAFTER..MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK..COMMENCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF NICE FALL
WEATHER. HOWEVER..TIMING ON THIS MAY BE 24-36 HOURS TOO FAST AS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS..GIVEN NORMAL BIASES
OF THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG TEMPORARILY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1
TO 3 MILES AT THE TWO FAVORED LOCATIONS OF KHIB/KHYR DURING
ROUGHLY THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE..WE
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN 050-070 CEILINGS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER..THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP. A FAST-MOVING
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM THE NORTH DURING THE LAST 6 TO 8 HOURS
OF THIS PERIOD..BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KINL THRU 17/06Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  44  62  41 /   0  10  20   0
INL  66  44  56  40 /  10  30  30   0
BRD  65  43  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  64  39  65  42 /   0  10  20  10
ASX  66  41  59  41 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ002>004-
     007>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-
     147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER






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