Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 301811
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
111 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

.UPDATE...WARM Temperatures and low RH TODAY

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FOR TODAY. AT 1100 AM MANY LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW to middle 70S WITH RAPIDLY
FALLING HUMIDITY. The deep mixing today, on the order of 10000
ft, will allow for falling dew points this afternoon and minimum
RH values in the 25 to 30 percent range. Continue to monitor
potential for convection this afternoon in the unstable air mass
ahead of the approaching low. latest soundings indicate sufficient
CAPE to support a few storms if can find a trigger or heat up
enough for initiation. best chance for a few stray storms will be
along a boundary positioned along international border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The Northland will reside underneath weak high pressure ridging
today, which will lead to sunny skies (at least this morning), and
much warmer temps than the past several days. However, the
forecast is not straight-forward, and there are several minor
details that cast some uncertainty to the forecast for this
afternoon and evening. First, with full sun this morning, mixing
will be considerably deeper than yesterday, resulting in more
robust instability by afternoon. In addition, a weak wave sliding
southeastward across Ontario will reinforce a weak frontal zone
lying across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. These two
factors, along with support from much of the short range model
suite, seem to suggest some potential for isolated to scattered
showers/T-Storms this afternoon and evening - especially across
areas north of US Highway 2. We have introduced PoPs for this time
range, and included a mention of thunder.

Much higher chances for organized rain and T-Storms should then
spread west to east across the region later tonight and Tuesday as
some form of a decaying MCS translates eastward from the Dakotas.
The going forecast had this handled reasonably well, so we did not
make any major changes other than to fine tune the timing and
adjust PoPs upward a bit. An easterly surge of cooler air off Lake
Superior appears rather likely with this system, and Tuesday could
end up being another rather cold, rainy and foggy day for many
places in the Twin Ports vicinity and points north and northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Strong, nearly stacked low pressure system over northwest Minnesota
Tuesday evening will move slowly northeast through Tuesday night and
Wednesday, keeping high chances for showers and thunderstorms over
the area through even Wednesday night.  It will mean another period
of wet, stormy and gloomy weather for the area with highs only in
the 60s to near 70 for Wednesday.

Ridging will build across the area Thursday and Thursday night,
bringing quieter weather into early Friday.  Colder air brought into
the area behind the exiting upper low system will keep temperatures
on the cool side, with highs in the 60s Thursday again.

Another fairly strong shortwave will dive into the area beginning on
Friday, moving in faster than previous model runs had it.  The
approach of this storm will bring warmer temperatures for Friday
along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms that
continue through much of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

An area of low pressure will begin to affect the Northland weather
starting tonight, and continuing through Tuesday. The low pressure
system will generally remain in the Dakotas through that time, but
a cold front will move eastward across the area through the
period. The result will be VFR conditions giving way to MVFR and
even IFR cigs/vsbys tonight and Tuesday. Winds will switch from
the west to the east, with strong winds developing off Lake
Superior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  49  51  47 /  10  70  80  50
INL  80  52  61  49 /  20  60  80  60
BRD  82  57  69  51 /  20  80  60  20
HYR  83  54  72  54 /   0  80  80  50
ASX  81  52  62  49 /  10  60  80  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Graning
AVIATION...DAP


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