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000
FXUS63 KDLH 200427
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1127 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -RA/-DZ AND BR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF TSRA WHEN CIGS/VSBYS MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR. GUSTY WINDS ALSO IN THE VCNTY OF TSRA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF TSRA...HAVE LEFT OUT
ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FA ATTM ARE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST. HEADLINES LEFT AS IS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
MAINLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -RA/-DZ AND BR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF TSRA WHEN CIGS/VSBYS MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR. GUSTY WINDS ALSO IN THE VCNTY OF TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW
ROTATING OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS STRONG AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
HAS ALLOWED FOR A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

AT 200 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT ALIGNED ALONG THE SRN DLH
CWA BORDER...GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM THE KBRD AREA....EAST TO
K04W...KHYR...AND KPBH. SOUTH OF THIS LINE WINDS WERE DUE SOUTH WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. NORTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS WERE
EAST WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

AS THE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO WESTERN
MN THROUGH MONDAY...IT WILL LIFT SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES...AND LONG-SKINNY CAPE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...PWAT VALUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS HOVER AROUND 1.25-1.50
INCHES...WHICH IS AROUND 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN DIMINISHES MONDAY
NIGHT...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTED VERY SATURATED SOILS BY THIS TIME AND ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ON THE NRN FLANK
OF THE LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOW
MOVING LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN
MINNESOTA AREA 00Z TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED WHERE
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA MEET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
LOOK TO BE LIGHTER DURING THAT TIME...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING
LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT REMAIN LIKELY
OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE IT`S SLOW EASTWARD/SOUTHEAST TREK.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARD KINL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY THEN...INTO LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPING
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE CWA VERSUS THE GFS WHICH
BRINGS SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE AREA. WE HAVE POPS IN FOR
NOW...AND WILL ADJUST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND SIXTY OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO AROUND SEVENTY NEAR PHILLIPS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER. MOSTLY SIXTIES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH AREAS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  50  44  52 /  80  90  70  70
INL  52  58  46  59 /  80 100  70  60
BRD  51  69  51  63 /  80  80  70  70
HYR  59  76  54  68 /  70  80  70  70
ASX  45  64  46  55 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ001-002-006>008.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GSF