Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 230900
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
400 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY...AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE N/NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW LATE THIS
WEEKEND.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2 LATER TODAY AND A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN FORCED BY BROAD
WAA AT 700MB WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
E-CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE LIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID
WEST A STRONG SURGE OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE DRAWN NWD INTO
MN/WI. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A NWD
MOVING WARM FRONT. EARLY SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PARK RAPIDS TO DULUTH TO
ASHLAND/IRONWOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AND ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA BY 12Z MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SPOTS AS
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE BY TUESDAY... AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE TRANSITION TO A MORE
WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S TO 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. MID CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
18Z SATURDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
VICINITY OF KBRD AFTER 03Z. HAVE JUST GONE WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE TO BE PRETTY SPARSE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  51  70  50 /  10  10  30  60
INL  78  46  76  49 /  10   0  10  20
BRD  70  51  67  54 /  20  20  40  70
HYR  73  50  72  54 /  10  10  30  80
ASX  76  50  75  48 /  10  10  30  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE






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