Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 190528
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and breezy weather the next few days along with
  cool temperatures. A bit of light snow in the Arrowhead and
  Wisconsin snowbelts.

- Snow chances return late Thursday into Friday with some light
  accumulations possible, mainly for east-central Minnesota into
  northwest Wisconsin.

- A larger spring storm is possible Sunday into early next week,
  which could bring accumulating snow, mixed precipitation, and
  gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Skies have cleared out for the majority of the region this
afternoon with some higher clouds across the International
Border and parts of northwest Wisconsin. Warm air advection this
evening and a weak passing upper level shortwave is expected to
result in an overall increase in cloud cover overnight, and some
flurries or light snow showers will be possible as well, mainly
in the Arrowhead (20-30% chance). A cold front will pass
through late tonight into Tuesday morning, resulting in a wind
shift from southwest to northwest and gusty winds persisting
through the day Tuesday. A few flurries or light snow showers
may be possible mainly in the Arrowhead Tuesday associated with
some weak upper level lift and low-level post-frontal mixing
that could result in horizontal roll convection. With plenty of
dry air in the low levels, however, I`m not anticipating much
for coverage or intensity of any snow. A 10-15% chance for
flurries is in the forecast.

The other story for Tuesday and lingering into Wednesday and
Thursday is the overall dry (albeit cool) weather pattern
expected and implications for fire weather. There may be enough
moisture to result in some stratocumulus clouds Tuesday, which
may keep min RH from falling lower than 30% despite winds
gusting to around 30 mph. Nevertheless, conditions will be
generally dry, especially across east-central Minnesota into
much of northwest Wisconsin where less clouds are expected.

A bit of lake-effect snow may clip northern Iron county, mainly
Tuesday night, but with a lack of moisture, snowfall amounts are
expected to be light (~40% chance for ~1" or less).

Another couple of dry weather days Wednesday and Thursday where
min RH values will likely fall to 20-25% and possibly lower
locally. Winds will remain a bit breezy from the northwest
Wednesday (gusts to ~20 mph), but much lighter Thursday.

A much more active weather pattern is looking likely starting
late Thursday into Friday as a clipper system still looks on
track to bring some snowfall to parts of the region. The broad
consensus favors central Minnesota into Wisconsin with the best
chances (~60%) for seeing accumulating snow. We will have to
keep an eye on the track of this though, because a wobble to the
north or south could bring the primary area of frontogenesis and
associated snowfall further north into or south of the region.
Current forecast PWATs between a quarter and half an inch are
favorable for a few inches of snow for at least parts of the
region. Another component of uncertainty is lake influence with
a cold air mass expected to be in place (850 hPa temps around
-15C or so). Northeast winds may bring some lake-enhancement to
 the South Shore and possibly into the Twin Ports depending on
 the storm track trends.

We may catch a break around Saturday, but another storm may be
on the horizon around Sunday into early next week. There`s much
more uncertainty with this one given that it`s still just under
a week away, but there is potential for a Colorado-style low to
develop somewhere in the Midwest and take a track that could be
favorable for some accumulating snowfall, mixed precipitation,
and gusty winds somewhere in the Midwest, possibly including the
Northland. If anyone has travel plans around this time, be
encouraged to keep up with the latest forecast, as it is
expected to change.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR conditions to start the forecast period as a low pressure system
moves southeast across Ontario. Mid to high clouds are sliding
across the Northland this morning with some MVFR ceilings expected
to develop later this morning. Dry air is expected to win out in the
afternoon with widespread VFR conditions returning. Gusty northwest
winds will also pick up later this morning as well with some
isolated flurries possible over northern MN.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Gusty southwest winds are expected tonight. A brief break where
winds may temporarily lessen early Tuesday morning is possible,
mainly along the North Shore as a cold front passes through, but
they will become gusty once again from the northwest after the
front passes through. Expect gusts around 25 knots for most
nearshore waters tonight with southwest winds. Winds then
increase slightly again as they shift northwesterly through the
day Tuesday. Gusts to around 30 kt are expected especially
Tuesday night, and winds may approach or reach gale force,
mainly along parts of the North Shore (Grand Marais to Grand
Portage) Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued everywhere through
Wednesday afternoon, and may need to be extended into Wednesday
evening for some areas. A Gale Watch has been issued Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning from Grand Marais to Grand
Portage.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ121.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ141>148-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...JDS


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