Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 301035 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 635 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as high pressure builds into the area. FEW-SCT diurnal cumulus somewhere around 6kft can be expected this afternoon. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear. WSW flow will mix to WNW and increase to near 10 knots by midday, and then veer to the N and NE with time as the center of high pressure settles over lower Michigan. //DTW Threshold Probabilities... * Low for ceilings of 5000 FT this afternoon && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016 DISCUSSION... Quiet conditions prevail but watching two upper waves on water vapor imagery. First wave tracking across southern Michigan now will exit into Canada by mid-morning, and only result in a few mid clouds. Larger upper wave over Wisconsin will have a slightly bigger impact on our weather today. Models take it right across the Lower Peninsula today during peak heating, and do develop a weak surface trough across the area in response. Looking at GFS/NAM model forecast soundings, moisture looks to be confined to a small layer between 800-700mb and upper wave does not look to have a sufficient cold pool (per model forecast data) to erode cap in place above this layer. This will limit convective depths for this afternoon, and think we will see only sprinkles at best. Subsidence behind the wave by mid-evening will help skies clear as surface high pressure and upper ridging build in overnight. Temperatures will remain above normal today as H925 temps recover fairly close to what they were yesterday despite frontal passage. While max temperatures still warm into the low and mid 80s, dewpoints in the 50s (perhaps even some 40s across the northern portion of the forecast area) will allow humidity to ease and make for a more comfortable day. High pressure and clear skies tonight will bring the coolest temperatures we have seen in days, but still slightly above normal in the low 50s to low 60s in the Detroit heat island. Upper ridging will build into the area Tuesday into Tuesday night in response to a large upper low digging into the Northern Plains. Weather should stay quiet and warm, but we will see an increase in mid and high clouds by Tuesday night. Models remain in good agreement with the upper low slowly tracking across Ontario late Wednesday into Thursday. Southerly flow into the area ahead of the system will draw a plume of deeper moisture back up into the area ahead of a cold front Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning, with H850 dewpoints rising just over 10C on the GFS. May see a few showers/tstorms develop Wednesday evening before a more solid band of showers with embedded thunder develops over the area Wednesday night as cold front works across the area and right entrance region forcing slides in with an upper jetlet working through the northern Great Lakes. Nocturnal timing to forcing will help to limit severe threat. MARINE... With a ridge of surface high pressure building into the central Great Lakes in the wake of passing cold front, winds are expected to remain relatively light as stronger pressure gradient immediately behind the frontal boundary shifts east of the area quickly. The high pressure builds over the area into Tuesday and Tuesday night, maintaining a rather light easterly flow. While some enhanced wind gusts will be possible from funneling on Saginaw Bay, Small Craft Advisory conditions do not appear likely. A stronger cold front is forecast to cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will provide the next chance for thunderstorms. South to southeast flow will increase to some degree in advance of this system with gusts into the 20 knot range by Wednesday over the open waters of Lake Huron. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....DG DISCUSSION...HLO MARINE.......DG You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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