Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 260355 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1155 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .AVIATION... SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. THIS WILL ENSURE A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BELOW 10K FT THROUGH THIS TIME. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. A POCKET OF MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL STRATOCU BY EARLY AFTERNOON. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * LOW IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EDGE EASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FGEN FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE LIFT...AND RESULTANT RAIN SHOWERS...WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...WELL SOUTH OF METRO DETROIT. ANY SHOWERS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALSO GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND BRING LOWS BACK WELL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...EVEN AS MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. TWO OF THESE WAVES...ONE NEAR ST JAMES BAY AND ONE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO MICHIGAN...THE FIRST ON SUNDAY AND THE SECOND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING HAS BEEN A LITTLE HARD TO PINPOINT HOWEVER GIVEN MODEL VARIATION WITH HANDLING THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. WATER VAPOR PRESENTATION OF THE SECOND WAVE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND IN PARTICULAR IS LOOKING NICE...AND PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS ALSO QUITE APPARENT. MODELS BRING THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVES...AND HIKE PW VALUES UP TO JUST OVER 0.5 INCHES. MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP FLOW NORTHERLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE PASSING WAVES HELPING TO REINFORCE COLD AIR. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE HURON. MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WAVE DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY /12Z SUITE DIFFERS WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE/. REGARDLESS...IMPACTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL WITH LACK OF MOISTURE SO KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THIS WAVE WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH MIDWEEK TO SOME DEGREE /AGAIN 12Z SUITE DIFFERS ON THE AMPLITUDE/ LIKELY LEADING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. TREND WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SLOWLY EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LEADING TO INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. MARINE... FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM NORTHEAST TO MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW A LITTLE GUSTY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH FINALLY EXPANDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS THREE FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON THROUGH MONDAY...EVEN APPROACHING FOUR FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES UP TO THREE FEET WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....MR SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....HLO/DT MARINE.......HLO YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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