Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 261058 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 658 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .AVIATION...
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High pressure and dry air will sustain light winds through the TAF period. Daytime heating may allow for few to sct high based diurnal clouds. For DTW... The weak gradient will support an inland push of the lake breeze during the early evening (23 to 00Z time frame). //DTW Threshold Probabilities... * None.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure centered over the area will continue to bring quiet weather. Light gradient and 10-20 degree F difference between the land and water temperatures over the Great Lakes should illicit a lake breeze response during the afternoon. Otherwise, scant moisture beneath a mid-level inversion should keep skies mostly sunny. Temperatures will remain warm and above normal today in the mid to upper 80s, although a few sites inland may hit 90. Upper wave crossing Ontario will push a cold front down into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night and into Lower Michigan Wednesday. Models continue to stall the front over south-central Lower late in the day as it becomes displaced from upper forcing and becomes orientated parallel to flow aloft. Ribbon of theta-e ahead/along the front and aid in production of showers and thunderstorms, but still only expect to see a scattered coverage given preceding dry airmass. Shortwave energy over the Northern Rockies is forecast to ride western flow into Michigan by late Wednesday night and Thursday, while another weak cold front is pushed down into Michigan by energy dropping into Ontario. This will renew chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday night, with the passage of the upper shortwave this time providing higher confidence for scattered showers and thunderstorms. After another warm day on Wednesday, the front will cool temperatures back into the low/mid 80s for Thursday and more towards the low 80s by Friday and Saturday. GFS/GEM/Euro continue to show a weak trough crossing the area Friday and Saturday, serving to again renew the chance for a lower-end coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast for early next week is currently dry as upper ridging expands into the Great Lakes, but will have to watch for smaller shortwaves riding the periphery of the ridge. These would have the potential to trigger rounds of rain/thunder either overhead or upstream. Given the absence of convection or debris clouds, we should begin to see another round of warm weather next week with temperatures rising back into the mid and upper 80s by Tuesday. MARINE... Observations across Lake Huron show northwest winds generally 10 to 15 knots. High pressure now extending from the central plains into the upper Midwest will expand across the Great Lakes today. This will cause wind speeds to decrease through the day and become somewhat variable in direction. A weak cold front will drop from the northern Great Lakes across Lower Mi on Wednesday then sink south into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. This front will provide a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday while maintaining relatively light and variable winds across the lakes.
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&& .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...HLO MARINE.......SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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