Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KDTX 010936 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 536 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO EPISODES OF DRIZZLE LARGELY OCCURING PRIOR TO 15Z. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING RENEWED DETERIORATION TO IFR AND RAIN MAINLY KPTK SOUTH IN THE 05-10Z TIME WINDOW. FOR DTW...SPORADIC UPSTREAM CEILINGS OF 300 FEET MEAN THAT DIPPING BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS OF 200FT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT * LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT PRIOR TO 13Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 DISCUSSION... MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST 3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB. ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/ TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH. CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/. TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH. NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME. ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONICFLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BYEARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HYDROLOGY... A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....JVC DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......JVC HYDROLOGY....JVC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.