Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 232305 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 705 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... IDEAL AVIATION CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A BROAD EXPANSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH FAVORS A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME ADDED POTENTIAL FOR FOG WITH THE SE TRAJECTORY FROM LAKE ERIE INTO DTW BUT THE AIR IS DRY ENOUGH TO DOUBT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL OTHERWISE BE LIMITED TO GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING/PRONE AREAS FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * NONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AT PEAK MIXING TODAY...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REGISTERED IN THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY CORRESPOND WITH OUR MIN TEMPS FOR TOMORROW MORNING UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THERE ARE WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES ONGOING DURING THE PERIOD...SO THIS ALSO LEADS TO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS COMING IN A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. NO CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF ON REGIONAL SATELLITE VIEWS. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN IS THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY MOISTURE PRESENT IS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION LOWERS AND COMPRESSES THIS MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE USUAL LOW TERRAIN AREAS. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENGULF THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WITH ALL JET ENERGY SHUNTED NORTH OVER CANADA. ONLY REAL ACTION OVER THE CONUS WILL BE A SHEARED PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY BEING CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHICH WILL THEN MEANDER ABOUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY PRETTY STABLE MIDWEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 11-13C. THIS WILL MAX OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT A PIECE OF THE SHEARED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD BRIEFLY LOWERING HEIGHTS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT. ONLY THING WE MAY SEE FROM THIS IS SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND 0.6 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THERE IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR...IT WILL BE MORNING FOG. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A PATCHY COVERAGE OF SHALLOW FOG AT BEST AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW DRY AIR EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE SFC. WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...DRY AIR...HIGH PRESSURE...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT. MOST OF THE DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 40S TO LOW 50S SO WE COULD REACH SATURATION FOR A COUPLE HOURS TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME SO WILL TAKE IT DAY BY DAY TO SEE HOW THE DAILY MIXING TAKES ITS TOLL ON THE LL MOISTURE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO A GLORIOUS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER JET IS DISPLACED FAR TO THE NORTH OVER HUDSON BAY. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY AS MODELS PROJECT LOW COLUMN RH. 12Z GFS/EC DEPICTING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND LONG TIME HORIZON WILL KEEP EXTENDED PERIOD DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PROVIDING FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES LARGELY UNDER 2 FEET. THERE IS NO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....BT SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....DRK/DT MARINE.......DRK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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