Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 242254 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 654 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .AVIATION... Surface high pressure will drift over the area tonight and shift slowly southeast through Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail due to the dry low level airmass associated with this high. Winds will remain under 5 knots overnight and become southeast 5-10 knots on Saturday with return flow west of exiting high pressure. //DTW Threshold Probabilities... * None && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 DISCUSSION... Cyclone positioned over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon is modeled to progress east along the US/Canada through Sunday, lifting to James Bay early next week. Expansive subtropical ridge remains in place throughout this time, amplifying northward in advance of the approaching wave. For tonight, expansive high pressure will support clear skies, calm winds, and low temperatures falling into the 50s areawide. Gradually warming column characterized by H85 temperatures rising into the upper teens by Saturday evening and remaining there through the weekend will support highs in the mid/upper 80s Sat and around 90 Sunday and Monday. As the cyclone advances into Northwest Ontario, very elongated warm conveyor will spread into the area from the west during the day Sunday. Dewpoints should have no problem rising into the upper 60s, but uncertainty in high temperatures will be in play due to encroaching convective debris. Cross-sections indicate the depth of the moist boundary to be up to 700mb, which should prove effective in eroding the existing cap. Thus, high chance to entry-level likely pops remain in place despite the potential for only modest destabilization (per non-NAM guidance). Given the lackluster wind field, organization will struggle even if if a higher insolation/higher instability scenario unfolds. As it stands, just a low risk for marginally severe hail/wind. Another warm night in the upper 60s/low 70s Sunday night as the warm conveyor exits but cold front remains well upstream. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Precipitation will clear Southeast Michigan late Sunday night/early Monday morning. However, the actual frontal boundary will lag behind allowing for another hot day by Michigan standards on Monday. High will be in the mid 80`s over thumb and near 90 south of the thumb. Humidity, which looked like it would remain high originally, now looks as if it will lower behind the precipitation band. High pressure builds over the region Tuesday with predominately dry conditions through early Friday morning. Temperatures will cool down for Tuesday and should remain mild through Friday with high`s in the 70`s and low`s in the upper 50`s. MARINE... Surface high pressure will remain centered over the central Great Lakes through Saturday. This will continue to bring quiet weather and light winds. An area of low pressure will move through northern Ontario Sunday, pushing a cold front across the region. Winds will increase from the south Sunday as the front approaches, allowing wind gusts over the nearshore waters to reach around 20 kts. The front will slip across the area during the afternoon and evening, triggering showers and thunderstorms. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....DG DISCUSSION...JVC/DE MARINE.......CB You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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