Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 281939
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
339 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SHEARED OUT UPPER LEVEL WAVE/PV ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING
WEST BACK TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE MAIN
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL RESIDES. WHAT`S LEFT OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL
TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW...BOOTED OFF TO THE EAST BY
THE STRONG PV ANOMALY TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO
TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE NEXT MOISTURE
SURGE/SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW...AS THEIR
APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING AS 700-500 MB COLD POOL
OF -13 C TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT JUST
LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS WE ARE/BECOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT
POTENTIALLY STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FGEN TO KEEP A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS GOING AFTER 00Z.

FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT OF DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MINS MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES..IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. INCREASING LATE APRIL INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S TOMORROW...AND NEAR
60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE...HOVERING AROUND THE UPPER 50S...WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVENT THE THERMAL TROUGH FROM MODERATING TOO MUCH UNTIL POSSIBLY
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STRONG WAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY THERE WILL ONLY BE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST
AND LEAVE A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS WHILE
MAINTAINING NE WIND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED. WAVE
HEIGHT WILL RESPOND IN KIND AND DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THEN REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND BRING A NEAR
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED
OVER SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS AGAIN WHILE MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND WILL
AFFECT ALL AREAS. WAVE HEIGHT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
BY SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IS
SCHEDULED TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER MBS...FNT...AND PTK. THESE WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN DURING EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO BE EVEN MORE EFFECTIVE AT HOLDING BACK MVFR CEILING ALONG
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
ABOVE 5 KNOTS WILL ALSO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AROUND
SUNRISE DESPITE WET GROUND LEFT OVER FROM SHOWERS TODAY. VFR WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY MID MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE FOR DTW OPERATIONS FORCING NE TRAFFIC FLOW INTO THE
EVENING. THIS SAME WIND PATTERN WILL HOLD BACK MVFR CEILING BUT NOT
QUITE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CEILING ABOVE 5 KFT WHICH WILL BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF OCCASIONAL BREAKS
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF/DRK
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT


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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


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